Mackinaw Peaches: Evaluating 2018’s Breakout Running Backs

Breakout running backs in fantasy football are fool’s gold just as often as they are winning lottery tickets.

Every year, an established starter goes down or an ambiguous backfield shakes out unpredictably, and out of the ashes emerges a fantasy stud. Discovering one of these players early and rostering them during their ascent to glory is not only a lot of fun, but it’s often a huge and sudden boon to the value of your fantasy team. But because #RBsDontMatter, these found money players are frequently guys whose talent profiles don’t match their suddenly startable level of production.

Like Cosmo Kramer’s delicious Mackinaw Peaches — the ones from Oregon that are only ripe for two weeks out of the year — many of these out-of-nowhere backs are “miracles of nature that exist for only a brief period.” Buying into one of these players at the wrong time, or holding one for too long beyond its short period of ripeness, can be a big blow to a fantasy owner seeking to maximize the value on his/her team. Holding tight to recent Mackinaw Peach running backs like Alex Collins, Thomas Rawls, or Isaiah Crowell through the breakout and into the flameout meant missing a huge opportunity to cash out at peak value.

This article will look at a few of the breakout fantasy runners of the 2018 season and seek to quell the buy-sell-or-hold confusion by answering one simple question about each of them: Mackinaw or nah?

Phillip Lindsay, DEN

The Breakout

When the Denver Broncos selected Royce Freeman in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft, fantasy gamers assumed it was wheels up for the three-time 1,000-yard rusher out of Oregon. When undrafted free agent and fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay came out of nowhere to post over 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the season opener, FAAB dollars flew and Freeman owners gnawed at their fingernails. When Lindsay notched his second 100-yard game just the next week, it was clear the hostile takeover was in full effect. Lindsay went on post ten touchdowns and nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage on his way to a Pro Bowl nomination and an RB1 finish in half-PPR.

The Talent Profile

At 5’8 and just 190 pounds, Phillip Lindsay’s shouldering a near 200-carry workload last season already makes him a substantial outlier from a physical frame standpoint. As an athlete, however, Lindsay certainly belongs, as during pre-draft testing he posted a 4.40-second 40-yard dash time to go with average agility and a 72nd-percentile Burst Score (per playerprofiler.com).

Lindsay was also a very productive collegiate player in a Power Five conference, posting 117 receptions and back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons during his time at Colorado, with his 2017 production good for an 87th-percentile Dominator Rating of 38.4%. The 38.0, 69th-percentile Satellite Score (a metric that adjusts receiving involvement for overall production to better predict a player’s passing game role as a pro) he posted in 2017 even suggests that his receiving ability exceeds what he produced during his rookie season in the NFL. Lindsay is small, but he’s good.

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The Verdict: Mackinaw or nah?

Mackinaw. Phillip Lindsay is not a Mackinaw Peach runningback in the traditional sense of the term (as if there is one). That is to say, he’s no JAG-level talent — the guy can clearly play. But if you’re trying to maximize the value on your dynasty team, Lindsay is a definite sell. He shares a backfield with a player in Royce Freeman who is a comparably talented athlete and, with four inches and almost 40 pounds on Lindsay, is significantly more equipped to handle a sizable workload on the ground.

Lindsay did it once, but betting on him to hold off Freeman and be a 15-touch per game guy again in 2019 is like betting on lightning to strike the same place twice. According to DLF’s ADP data, Lindsay is currently being drafted at slot 58 in startups, around ascending pass-catchers like Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard, as well as early first-round rookie picks like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Miles Sanders. He’s already a success story, but it’s very likely that Phillip Lindsay has already posted the most productive fantasy season that he ever will. If you can sell for mid-first round value, you’ve got to do it.

James Conner, PIT

The Breakout

We all know the story: Le’Veon Bell holds out through the preseason, but he won’t actually miss games, then he holds out through the beginning of the regular season, but he just wants to prove a point and he’ll be back by week four, then he’s riding jet skis, but he’ll obviously return by week 10 or week 11 or [insert arbitrary week that I read about in a conspiracy theory post on r/fantasyfootball here] in order to maximize his profits, then he misses the whole season, and wow, James Conner was a stud all year.

Conner was indeed a stud in 2018, finishing as the RB6 in half-PPR and tying Ezekiel Elliott for seventh among running backs with 19.4 fantasy points per game (per fantasypros.com). Outperforming Bell’s 2017 output in several efficiency metrics, Conner stepped right into his vacated three-down role, catching 55 passes in addition to the 973 rushing yards he gained in just 13 games, and the Steelers offense didn’t miss a beat.

The Talent Profile

Conner was a stud at Pitt early in his college career, rushing for 1,756 yards and 26 touchdowns as a sophomore. He missed the 2015 season while battling Hodgkin’s lymphoma, then came back in 2016 to post another 1,092 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground, good enough for the Steelers to select him in the third round of the NFL Draft.

Despite an impressive playing career, Conner is not a great athletic talent. He has workhorse size at 6’1, 233 pounds, but he has bottom-of-the-barrel measurables otherwise, with his 32nd-percentile 40-yard dash time of 4.65 as the most impressive. Conner also did not appear to boast a versatile skillset coming out college, as despite hauling in 21 receptions as a senior he entered the NFL with a Satellite Score that ranks in just the 26th-percentile; contributing as a pass-catcher never projected to be a significant part of his game.

The Verdict: Mackinaw or nah?

Mackinaw. As with Lindsay, it’s likely that Conner produced the best fantasy season he ever will last season. And like Lindsay, Conner has another talented player nipping at his heels who could eat into his workload going forward in Jaylen Samuels. Samuels is a superior athlete to Conner, boasting above-average athletic measurables across the board, that, as a former college tight end, offers supreme versatility. His Satellite Score of 84.5 is the fifth-highest score of 252 in my database, and at 5’11, 225 pounds, he is uniquely suited to a jack-of-all-trades role in an NFL backfield. He showed that during the final four games of last season, notching 150 yards from scrimmage as the starter in one game, seven receptions in two others (one with Conner also in the lineup), and a touchdown in the other.

I think it’s very likely that Samuels eats into Conner’s workload in 2019 and beyond. He’s more athletically talented, is just as suited to large carry volume, and is significantly more skilled as a receiver. Conner has proven he’s a good player despite a lack of natural talent, and he filled the Bell role admirably for Pittsburgh last season, but in making Bell expendable he’s the crown jewel of #RBsDontMatter — he’s replaceable. His drop in production won’t be as drastic as Lindsay’s, but if you can put together a trade to flip Conner for a similarly valued player with a more robust talent profile (Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Stefon Diggs, and George Kittle are all being taken within eight picks of Conner in startups), I think you should pull the trigger.

Damien Williams, KC

The Breakout

After Kareem Hunt was released late last season, Damien Williams stepped into the starting running back chair and totaled at least 95 yards from scrimmage or a touchdown in six out of seven games as a starter (including playoff contests). He was manna from heaven just in time for the fantasy playoffs, producing at a 20.4 fantasy points per game pace during his time as the lead back, a rate better than Hunt’s season pace and just behind that of Christian McCaffrey, last year’s RB5 on a per game basis.

The Talent Profile

Williams is a former Oklahoma Sooner and undrafted free agent who spent the first four years of his NFL career as a backup to Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi in Miami, but despite receiving an average of just 4.3 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game from 2014-2017, he’s no JAG-level talent. As a 220+ pound back with quality athletic traits (he ran the 40 in 4.45 seconds and boasts a 63rd-percentile Burst Score) and good receiving ability (his Satellite Score of 42.6 is an 81st-percentile mark), Williams is a 92.3% and 93.2% skillset match, respectively, to successful NFL runners Joe Mixon and DeMarco Murray, per my comparison model. He hasn’t received many chances to show it, but Williams has been as talented a running back waiting in the wings as any in the league over the last half-decade.

The Verdict: Mackinaw or nah?

Mackinaw. Williams did not outperform his level of talent during his time as a starter this last year as much as he revealed it, and there’s no reason why he couldn’t be an RB1-quality fantasy producer within the context of the Kansas City Chiefs offense if he were given the opportunity over a whole season. The problem is that he probably won’t receive such an opportunity. The Chiefs have already brought in Dementor running back Carlos Hyde, master of sucking the fantasy value out of every backfield he touches, and it’s an almost universal assumption that they’ll add to the running back room through the Draft.

I believe that Williams is a quality player, but it appears he might be destined to never fully realize his potential as a lead NFL back. That seven-game stretch we got at the end of 2018 could be just a cruel tease. He’s certainly found money as an out-of-nowhere sixth-round startup value player, so I wouldn’t fault dynasty owners for holding on and riding the train until it derails. As with Lindsay, though, I’m inclined to sell now for the OJ Howard, Tyler Lockett, Hunter Henry-level asset that Williams can likely fetch on the block. You held on long enough, and you were rewarded. Reap the fruit of your labor before it expires.

Chris Carson, SEA

The Breakout

The Seattle Seahawks’ first round selection of Rashaad Penny in last year’s Draft was the ultimate red herring for fantasy gamers wanting to lock down the lead back in a Russell Wilson-led offense. Instead of Penny, it was the previous year’s seventh-round pick Chris Carson who provided fantasy value, as he rushed for 1,151 yards and 9 touchdowns on his way to a high-end RB2 finish based both on season-long totals and per game averages.

The Talent Profile

At first glance, Carson is your typical hard running, sub-athlete two-down Seahawks grinder in the mold of Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins. He is some of those things — he plays for the Seahawks, he certainly runs hard, and he’s definitely a two-down grinder — but Carson is not the replacement-level talent that Rawls and Collins are (two former Mackinaw Peach running backs themselves, classes of 2015 and 2017, respectively).

Carson was one of the most efficient runners I’ve charted out of 77 college backs since 2010, posting a True YPC rate (which limits long runs to a maximum of 10 yards) of 5.23, best in the database, and a Chunk Rate Over Team (which measures a player’s rate of 10+ yard runs against the rest of his team’s rate) of 13.87%, also best in the database, against Power Five competition during his time at Oklahoma State. He also offers quality athleticism and good strength, pairing a 4.58 40-yard dash time with an 88th-percentile Burst Score and a 74th-percentile effort on the bench. His NFL success in 2018 was not an accident.

The Verdict: Mackinaw or nah?

Nah. The dynasty community is very split on the Penny-Carson dichotomy; according to DLF’s startup ADP data, the two are currently being drafted as the 31st and 32nd running backs off the board, respectively, with nearly identical average draft positions (Penny’s is 82.17, Carson’s is 82.67). Draft capital-based arguments will, of course, favor Penny, but Pete Carroll and the rest of the Seattle staff are running a meritocracy, and I believe Carson is the more talented player.

Despite Penny’s reputation as a three-down workhorse waiting to be unleashed, the numbers indicate that he’s less suited for a high-volume role than Carson is. Despite a 76th-percentile college target share, Penny’s Satellite Score of 20.6 is just a 21st-percentile mark (and is actually lower than Carson’s 23.5). The best indicator of NFL rushing workload I’ve found outside of draft capital is Power Score, a metric that equally weights size, build, Burst Score, and bench press performance to approximate a player’s strength and ability to handle heavy touches.

Penny falls short of Carson here as well, with a 35th-percentile Score of 47.6 that can’t hold a candle to Carson’s 81st-percentile mark of 58.4. Conventional wisdom also tells us that Penny is a superior athlete to Carson, but it’s pretty much a wash: Penny is faster (4.40 in the 40 compared to Carson’s 4.58), but Carson is substantially more explosive (88th-percentile Burst Score to Penny’s 32nd-percentile mark).

The Seahawks lit a first round pick on fire last year by selecting Penny at 27th overall. In most instances, that boneheaded move would work out for fantasy purposes regardless — organizations often feel pressure to justify such a high pick, and players taken that early are typically talented enough to oblige. The Seahawks, though, have a history of letting the best players play (Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn, anyone?), and while Penny is a rare size-speed specimen and was a monster producer at San Diego State, Carson is the better player. He’s here to stay.

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