Landing Spot Intrigue: Running Backs

The NFL draft is fast approaching. The running back position in the league is about as deep as it has ever been, and few teams will be entering the draft next Thursday with a clear need at the position.

This is to not suggest there isn’t an opportunity for the incoming class to make their mark. I will explore a couple of these landing spots to examine the current value of the position and the potential role a rookie may carve out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have been touted as one of the clear cut, best landing spots for a running back in the upcoming draft. Their inactivity in free agency suggests they are either choosing to target the position in the draft or they are content with their current backfield. If it is the latter, they will enter the season with Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones as the only running backs on their roster with more than six carries for the team in 2018.

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The Current squad

Barber led the way with 234 attempts for 871 yards and five touchdowns this past season. He accomplished these totals purely by virtue of volume. His 3.6 true yards per carry (discounts plays greater than ten yards) ranked 54th in the league and led to him being 19th in rushing yards despite ranking top ten in carries. He did notably play behind the 31st-ranked offensive line per footballoutsiders.com, but he failed to show an ability to create anything beyond these limitations.

Barber’s performance highlights the team’s logic of investing an early 2018 second round pick in Jones. The problem is that Jones failed to live up to expectations (this is a bit of an understatement).

It is difficult to evaluate Jones’ rookie season because he was simply not utilized. He had 23 attempts for 44 yards (1.9 yards per carry) and one touchdown in nine games. This is not a large enough sample size to have takeaways, but it added to a disastrous preseason where he had 28 carries for 22 yards (!!!). He did not earn the coaches’ trust and could not perform when given a chance. He ended up being a healthy scratch for multiple weeks during the season.

A fresh start

The team decided to part ways with their head coach this off-season and brought in previously retired offensive guru, Bruce Arians. This has piqued the interest of the fantasy community given his history as coach of the Arizona Cardinals where he featured a single running back and orchestrated the success of David Johnson.

Arians schemed for Johnson to be a dual threat, creatively deploying him out wide as a receiver while also using a vertical passing attack to lighten boxes for Johnson as a rusher. Even before Johnson took over the backfield, an aging Chris Johnson accrued 814 rushing yards in only 11 games in 2015.

All this suggests that the Tampa Bay running back position carries significant value. The offense is loaded with receiving threats and defenses will not be able to cheat up to stop the run. One red flag for the 2018 Buccaneers running backs was the team’s heavy reliance on the pass. They were among the league leaders in pass percentage (63.3%) and led the league in pass attempts (625).

While this limited rushing opportunities for the 2018 Buccaneers, these statistics are nearly identical to the Cardinals in 2016 (63.26% pass percentage and 646 attempts) when Johnson finished as the top running back in fantasy. An important part of this was the integration of Johnson in the passing attack, an element that was absent on the 2018 Buccaneers with only 65 total targets to the position (Johnson had 80 receptions on 120 targets in 2016).

The draft will be telling for what the staff thinks about Jones. I am skeptical that Barber will have a significant role going forward, so it will come down to if Arians believes Jones can fit the mold for what he wants at the position. The team has pressing needs along the offensive line, defensive line, and their secondary, so investing high draft capital at running back is something I expect they would prefer to avoid.

Jones’ dynasty value will have a substantial rebound if they invest elsewhere in the draft and continue talking him up in camp. This makes selling him now a risky proposition given his value is equivalent to a late second round pick.

But if they draft a player like David Montgomery or Miles Sanders in the third round, it will be incredibly difficult to recoup much value. On the flip side, any rookie drafted in the first three to four rounds will see a significant bump in their rookie ADP with the prospects of taking over this backfield.

Kansas City Chiefs

This is a ceiling play. There are other backfields with an easier path for a rookie to become a starter (e.g. Buccaneers or Raiders), but no other landing spot has the potential of Kansas City.

If a rookie was deemed to be the clear starter headed into the season, experts would be hard-pressed to not have him ranked among the top 12 for 2019. Andy Reid has an extensive history of featuring a primary back who nearly always finishes among the league leaders. The team’s projection to be one of the top scoring units will lead to ample opportunity for touchdowns, and Reid’s tendency to target running backs creates increased PPR value.

The problem is that there is competition. Damien Williams was seamlessly integrated into the offense when Kareem Hunt was cut in 2018. He was promptly given a two-year extension worth $8.1m mid-season. The contract amount does not signify that he is their running back of the future, but all accounts indicate he will have the first shot as the starter in 2019.

The concern about Williams is that he has been a journeyman and replaceable level running back up to this point in his career. He is 27 years old and has never had more than 50 carries in a season. He accrued his highest yardage total in 2018 with 256 in three starts.

Damien Williams Career Statistics

It is hard to claim Williams’ success with the Chiefs is due to anything beyond the offense in which he plays. This does not foster confidence in his ability to hold on to the position if another player flashes or he misses time to injury. Lastly, he accounts for just over $500,000 in dead cap for 2020, making him easily cuttable after this upcoming season.

Free Agency Addition

The Chiefs proceeded to add Carlos Hyde ahead of free agency. Initial reactions were that this was positive for Williams, but more communal skepticism has set in over time. A great question posed by experts such as Mike Tagliere and the Fantasy Footballers is:

“Headed into the 2018 season, would you rather have Hyde or Williams if both were in the Chiefs backfield without Hunt?”

The clear answer is Hyde.

Hyde had a brutal year in 2018. He started with the Hue Jackson led Browns, only to be traded mid-season to the Jaguars. He totaled 172 rushes for 572 yards on a woeful 3.3 yards per carry.

This campaign left a sour taste in fantasy owner’s mouths which has clearly overshadowed his 2017 season where he was a focal point of the 49ers offense with 328 total touches. His advanced metrics were poor (26th in breakaway run rate, 35th in juke rate, and first in drops), but he was on one of the worst teams in the league. A notable positive is that he is now two years removed from his injury-riddled early career. Overall, he is a much more proven commodity than Williams.

Impending Draft Investment

Most anticipate the Chiefs will add a running back in the draft. The key will be how early and the type of player. A late round smaller back who can play in a third down role and spell Williams and Hyde will indicate confidence in the current backfield.

Similar to the Bucs, the Chiefs have many needs on the defensive side of the ball. If they believe their system can generate a successful rushing attack without an above average rusher (and the evidence certainly seems to support this), they should invest their draft capital elsewhere. But if they should decide to commit a third round or earlier pick, this will be the one to own. I would even have significant concerns as a Williams or Hyde owner if they add a player like Rodney Anderson in the fourth or fifth round.

The silver lining is that the value of these veterans was little to none six months ago (Williams was picked up off many waivers).

Here are a few recent trades involving Damien Williams (per Dynasty Trade Finder):

• Williams for Robby Anderson
• Williams for 1.07
• Williams/2020 first for Brandin Cooks

There is an opportunity to sell before the draft or hold on for the lottery ticket if one of the two emerges in 2019. I could see an argument for a contender holding because of the upside, but my recommendation is to sell if you can get these types of values.

Data courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, f Footballoutsiders.com, and playerprofiler.com.

Thank you for reading. You can follow me @FF_TomB. I am always happy to answer questions and chat all things Fantasy. Stay up to date on all your dynasty needs at Dynastyleaguefootball.com

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