Josh Jacobs: The King of the Hill

John DiBari

After a rather uninspiring series of performances at the NFL Scouting Combine, followed by some lackluster pro day showings, we sit here heading into the NFL draft with Josh Jacobs listed as most people’s RB1 in this class. Is that still warranted?

At a previous job I had, I used to joke (not-joking) with co-workers that nobody ever truly promoted or gained seniority based on their merits, instead, our employer just kept shoveling more (you know what) underneath them. With a few exceptions, that’s how I feel about this class of running backs.

Is Jacobs still the top guy? I guess so, but it’s not because of anything he did to stay there. He was anointed as the RB1 heading into the fantasy off-season, and everyone else seems to be stumbling all over themselves to pile up behind him.

‘Bama

Before we dig into any combine and pro day numbers outside of Alabama, the question needs to be asked: Is Jacobs even the best Crimson Tide running back in this draft? Teammate Damien Harris seems to have a better resume with better stats and measurables too.

Harris and Jacobs played together for three seasons from 2016 through 2018. During those seasons, Harris accumulated 2,916 rushing yards on 430 carries, good for 6.8 yards per carry (YPC). During that same time frame, Jacobs saw 252 carries for 1,488 yards, with a 5.9 YPC average.

Yards per carry is a questionable stat for a number of reasons; however it is worth noting that Harris averaged nearly a full yard more per carry than Jacobs on the exact same team, with the exact same offensive line. At the end of the day, isn’t that an important indicator that Harris might be the better running back?

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Andy Singleton and John Laub took an in-depth look at Jacobs in their 2019 NFL Draft Video Profile Series here on DLF that you can watch here:

Coach Saban

All other issues aside, why would Alabama coach Nick Saban give Harris nearly 200 more carries when both players were available to him? Jacobs was a more productive receiver than Harris, with 581 yards compared to Harris’ 394 on the same 48 total receptions. Even with Jacobs’ 12 yards per reception average compared to Harris’ 8.2, Saban didn’t think it necessary to get Jacobs more work in the passing game.

It seems odd that one of the greatest college football coaches of all time would give significantly more rushes to his “lesser” back, and feed them equally in the passing game despite Jacobs outperforming Harris on a per catch basis. If he’s not good enough for Saban, why is everyone in the fantasy community seemingly convinced that Jacobs is good enough for their fantasy team?

Andy Singleton and John Laub’s 2019 NFL Draft Video Profile Series also took a look at Damien Harris:

Measurables

Between the combine and Alabama’s pro day, we have some raw numbers that can help us compare the two ‘Bama backs. They are both roughly the same size, with Harris coming in at 5’10” and 216 pounds and Jacobs sitting at 5’10” and 220 lbs. Jacobs also brings larger hands and slightly longer and wingspan. Harris recorded a slightly faster 40-yard dash time (4.57) than Jacobs (4.60), but that isn’t a poor number for either back as they were not thought of as “burners” to begin with. Jacobs’ pro day 40-time would have placed him 17th among running backs at the combine, while Harris was 11th.

Jacobs was also 17th at the combine in the bench press, where he put up 18 reps, to Harris’ 16. Jacobs elected not to perform the vertical jump at the combine or at his pro day, which leads me to believe he likely would have had a poor showing in that event. Harris jumped 37 inches, good enough for fourth among running backs, and signifies he has some explosion, much like his eighth best broad jump of 121 inches.

Jacobs did not perform the broad jump at the combine but did elect to do it at his pro day. That might have been a poor decision. Jacobs only jumped 112” (9 feet, 4 inches) at his pro day, had he jumped at the combine, he would have been 24th – dead last – among the running backs who performed the test. That does not bode well for his perceived explosiveness.

To Jump, or Not to Jump

As we saw with DK Metcalf, maybe players should sit out certain events if they know they are not going to put up good numbers. Jacobs skipped the broad jump at the combine and, in hindsight, probably should’ve skipped it at his pro day as well. Do I think the broad jump is the be all, end all of running backs tests? Absolutely not, however, I stumbled onto something interesting.

Going back through 31 years of NFL rookie measurables, only 134 running backs did worse than Josh Jacobs in the broad jump. If we give an inch and look at players who jumped 110” or less, there were only 109 running backs. Even worse, only seven were “recognizable” names, and only two were significant contributors: Ricky Watters and Darren Sproles. The others were role players like Chester Taylor, Matt Asiata, Kapri Bibbs, Chester Taylor, and Peyton Barber. It’s only one of many tests during the pre-draft process, but that is not an inspiring list of comps for the purported RB1 in a draft class.

A quick look at his PlayerProfiler.com player’s card will show you that none of his workout metrics were close to average for the position.

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The Competition

The 2019 running back class was not very highly thought of coming into the combine, and the performances we saw at the there did nothing to change people’s minds. Only a few months ago, two of the more highly thought of prospects in this class were Florida Atlantic University’s Devin Singletary and Georgia’s Elijah Holyfield. To say they led the charge to disappoint the masses would be an understatement.

Folks knew Singletary was going to be undersized coming in, but he tipped the scales at only 203 pounds while standing five feet, seven inches tall. With those measurements, along with solid game tape and production – including an FBS-leading 29 touchdowns in 2017 – it was suspected that we’d see a strong combine performance. Wrong. A 19th percentile 4.66 40-yard dash time, an eighth-percentile 7.32 3-cone drill time and a 20th percentile 4.4-second 20-yard shuttle gave us a glimpse of what we could expect from this class.

A look at his spider chart from Mockdraftable will paint a better picture of just how disappointing his combine performance was.

As poor as Singletary tested, most were not ready for the disastrous show Holyfield put on. He ran a 4.78 forty (which he followed up with an unheard of 4.89 forty at his pro day) and only jumped 29.5 inches in the vertical leap – both fourth percentile scores. He had below average size in his hands and arms, and although he put up an impressive 26 reps on the bench, this isn’t bodybuilding, it’s football.

Holyfield is now widely considered by many to be undraftable in both real football and for fantasy. However, for some reason, he is still showing an average draft position in the late third round of rookie drafts. Holyfield’s spider chart is discouraging as well.

Mediocrity

Even the backs who performed well and opened some eyes at the combine didn’t blow the roof off the building in Indianapolis. Only ten running backs ran a forty-yard dash with a time above the 50th percentile. Only 12 running backs had a vertical jump above the 50th percentile, and 14 backs had a broad jump that was above the 50th percentile.

The agility drills; the 3-cone drill and the 20-yard short shuttle, are weighed heavily by many when evaluating running backs. Those drills – especially for running backs – give you some insight into a player’s ability to stop and start, cut, and change direction. As we’ve seen with most everything 2019 running back related, the agility numbers were a tremendous disappointment. Seven players had three-cone drills that eclipsed the 50th percentile and only three, T-H-R-E-E, players had a 20-yard shuttle time that was higher than the 50th percentile.

We’ve seen a few very good running back classes recently, and when you crunch the numbers and watch some film, Jacobs doesn’t need to do much to be at the head of this class and has managed to remain the top rookie running back according to DLF’s rookie ADP.

King of the Hill

Where does Jacobs stand after looking at him compared to the rest of the class? It sure feels like Jacobs was initially anointed as the top running back of the 2019 draft, and with nobody else stepping up to unseat him, he remains on the throne. He hasn’t done anything during the pre-draft process that has separated himself from the pack. If anything, he’s brought himself a little closer to those just behind him, as they also have done very little to catch him. Obviously, draft day landing spots will have a significant impact on fantasy values, but as of today, several players have a real shot at jumping over Jacobs, even with their shortcomings.

Miles Sanders has crept into the pre-draft rookie RB1 conversation, and after an eye-opening combine performance, I feel he should be the RB1 this year. He does have ball security issues and could be a couple of fumbles away from selling cars in 2023, but he has more upside than Jacobs. Jacobs’ Alabama teammate was the better player during their tenure in Tuscaloosa, and I can’t find a good reason why that won’t continue.

Oklahoma’s Rodney Anderson has a significant injury history, but when healthy, may be the most naturally talented running back in this class. David Montgomery’s star has dimmed a bit over the last two years at Iowa State thanks in part to a historically horrid offensive line, but tell me Montgomery falling to the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t give him the most significant post-draft bump in the entire class. The undersized, but explosive Darrell Henderson from Memphis may see his ADP rise dramatically with a great draft day landing spot.

Until anything positive happens to the other top-tier backs on draft day, Jacobs seems to be poised to maintain his position atop the trash heap that is the 2019 running back class.

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john dibari