Bill Walsh’s Breakdown of 2019 NFL Draft Wide Receivers

By Jonathon Chapman

Posted on April 22, 2019

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The great Bill Walsh has changed the NFL game as much as anyone since its inception. As a three-time Super Bowl Champion, two-time NFL Coach of the Year, and a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, he has continued to change the league through his evaluation of NFL Draft Prospects still today. Walsh left behind an amazing criterion for which to judge each position in his scouting notes and his books, “Finding the Winning Edge”, “The Score Takes Care of Itself”, and “Building a Champion”.

I have adapted his criteria for the wide receiver position and developed a grading rubric for each of the ten most important categories for the position and have assigned a grade from 1-10 for all the top players in this draft.

The ten categories by order of importance are as follows.

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1. Route running – How well and consistently does the receiver run his routes? For timing and anticipation throws to work, the receiver needs to always be in the correct spot no matter the type of coverage.
2. Natural pass catching hands – The way in which the receiver catches the ball matters. Body catches are a huge negative. Does the player extend his arms and catch the ball easily away from his body? Catch percentage and total drops affect the score as well.
3. Separation – This should be renamed the Dante Pettis category. Whether the pass goes to the receiver or not, how consistently is there distance between the corner and the receiver?
4. Contested catches – Just because a receiver cannot create separation from coverage, it does not mean they are not valuable, but it does lessen their appeal. Catches made vs elite corners in the NFL will require battling in tight spaces.
5. Elusiveness – Once the catch is made, what can the receiver do with the ball? Yards after catch is a great metric that can be achieved through pure speed, agility, or power.
6. Full route tree – NCAA offenses range in complexity. The number of different routes run is very different than being a good route runner. Corey Coleman has made this category much more valuable in today’s game.
7. Catch radius – Height + arm length + vertical = catch radius.
8. Acceleration – Can the receiver get to top speed quickly? This separates the long striders from the quick and dangerous.
9. Blocking – How does the receiver benefit the run game?
10. Top end speed – You can tell how much the great Bill Walsh valued the 40-yard dash to have it the last mentioned in his scouting notes.

Kelvin Harmon, NC State (6’2”, 221)

• Route running = 8
• Natural pass catcher = 10
• Separation = 5
• Contested catches = 10
• Elusiveness = 5
• Full route tree = 8
• Catch radius = 6
• Acceleration = 5
• Blocking = 10
• Top end speed = 5

Harmon is the safest receiver in this class because he is a football player who happens to play wide receiver and not the other way around. His 4.61-second 40-yard dash is his biggest drawback but if you want production, consistency and sure hands, this is your guy.

Marquise Brown, Oklahoma (5’9”, 166)

• Route running = 7
• Natural pass catcher = 5
• Separation = 10
• Contested catches = 6
• Elusiveness = 10
• Full route tree = 7
• Catch radius = 1
• Acceleration = 10
• Blocking = 1
• Top end speed = 10

Brown is a big play waiting to happen who has averaged over 18 yards per reception in his career. He is only 166 pounds, but his footwork and speed seem to make it impossible for any corner to get their hands on him, so Brown is much more than just a slot guy. His Lisfranc injury is the only thing that might keep him out of the first round.

DK Metcalf, Ole Miss (6’3”, 228)

• Route running = 9
• Natural pass catcher = 6
• Separation = 6
• Contested catches = 7
• Elusiveness = 7
• Full route tree = 2
• Catch radius = 10
• Acceleration = 7
• Blocking = 7
• Top end speed = 10

Metcalf is a physical freak who will go first among receivers in the NFL Draft because of his ceiling. His lack of running a full route tree, injuries, drops, and lateral quickness raises some questions but not enough to scare away NFL teams.

Hakeem Butler, Iowa St (6’6”, 227)

• Route running = 5
• Natural pass catcher = 5
• Separation = 6
• Contested catches = 10
• Elusiveness = 5
• Full route tree = 5
• Catch radius = 10
• Acceleration = 7
• Blocking = 8
• Top end speed = 8

Butler is a 6’5” deep ball specialist who led the NCAA with 19 receptions of passes that traveled more than 20 air yards. Intermediate and short routes are where he struggles because he is a body catcher when facing the quarterback and only had a 56% catch rate which is Dez Bryant bad.

AJ Brown, Ole Miss (6’0”, 226)

• Route running = 6
• Natural pass catcher = 3
• Separation = 5
• Contested catches = 6
• Elusiveness = 8
• Full route tree = 5
• Catch radius = 6
• Acceleration = 8
• Blocking = 6
• Top end speed = 8

Brown is the number one slot receiver in this draft by a mile. Just think Le’Veon Bell as a receiver. And he has the volume to match. Brown led the SEC in receiving yards in back-to-back years. However, he struggles with body catches and was never asked to run complex routes at Ole Miss.

N’Keal Harry, Arizona State (6’2”, 228)

• Route running = 3
• Natural pass catcher = 8
• Separation = 2
• Contested catches = 10
• Elusiveness = 5
• Full route tree = 2
• Catch radius = 9
• Acceleration = 4
• Blocking = 8
• Top end speed = 7

Harry is a size and athleticism stud who has never missed a game in three years. He has lined up all over the field and even had 23 career rushing attempts. Just get the ball in his hands and good things will happen. The issue is almost half of his routes were hitches or screens and he will need to adjust his routes at the next level.

Riley Ridley, Georgia (6’1”, 199)

• Route running = 10
• Natural pass catcher = 6
• Separation = 7
• Contested catches = 4
• Elusiveness = 4
• Full route tree = 6
• Catch radius = 6
• Acceleration = 8
• Blocking = 2
• Top end speed = 6

Ridley is the best route runner in this class and should be one of the top wideouts. However, his commitment to the game is a question and he doesn’t seem to like blocking at all. Only a 36% catch rate on passes traveling more than 20 yards in the air is a major concern and he never was a top two target on his college team.

For more follow @JL_Chapman on Twitter.

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Bill Walsh’s Breakdown of 2019 NFL Draft Wide Receivers