Analysis of Rookie Running Backs by ADP: RBs 1-4
Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is drawing near and dynasty owners all across the country are making their draft boards, it’s time to start helping by reviewing all running backs in order of current average draft position. Not all players pan out at the NFL level, so I am going to be critical at times that require it.
The following is a quick summary of the top four running backs by ADP. In this series, I will review as many rookie running backs that I can cover prior to the draft, four at a time. My track record over the past three seasons is near 100%, as shown on our DLF forums by users who have tracked my history. I’m going to put it all on the line yet again for the 2019 rookie season.
I studied the following players for roughly an hour each. I not only watched game footage but also searched for high school and collegiate interviews. Knowing if a player has the mental capacity to become a student of the game is important, and since I can’t be in the room with them, there’s no better substitute than interviews.
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Josh Jacobs, Alabama (ADP RB1)
I’ve already written a full in-depth look at this polarizing player. The bottom line is that Jacobs appears to be the real deal, but sometimes has mental lapses that hurt his game. These are coachable issues, and his interviews are mature and well-spoken, hinting that he is capable of learning the game at its highest level in a classroom setting.
He can run, catch, and pass block. He has low mileage on his body. He can excel in man or zone blocking. Jacobs should easily be an early first-round pick in any rookie draft.
Probability of Success: 95%
Miles Sanders, Penn State (ADP RB2)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; the most exciting player in this NFL draft, in my opinion, is Miles Sanders. He checks most of the boxes and his stock has only risen since his combine experience, which only confirms the type of player we saw this past season.
https://i.imgur.com/HTwRUkf.gifv
Here we see Sanders running a zone read from the inside-out. The ‘A’ and ‘B’ gaps, which are supposed to be available, are properly gapped by the defensive line. He waits for blocking to lead him to the outside instead of pushing for yards on a crucial third down.
He keeps jump-cutting to the outside, keeping his hips pointed down-field, avoids two tacklers, and then hurdles a defender to make sure he secures a first down. This was only a seven-yard gain, but it kept the offense on the field for another set of down, and more importantly, the opposing teams’ offense off the field.
https://i.imgur.com/LIYZobQ.gifv
Another zone, this time he has a hole and hits it hard with perfect stop-and-go feet, staying low to the ground, enabling him to switch direction at the second level when three defenders had him surrounded. The one negative is that he failed to outrun the defenders.
Sanders has excellent quickness, boasting a 1.55-second 10-yard split at the combine, third best among all running backs and tenth best overall. This run shows some of that quickness at all levels of the playing field.
https://i.imgur.com/L330rvk.gifv
This is more of a showcase of his vision than anything else. Another zone play, where a lot of running backs would take the easy way by running to the edge which is free and clear of defenders. Sanders is patient and waits an extra split second for the hole to open up, and he hits it hard when it does. He makes another big move down the field and gains an extra 15 yards after a forced miss tackle.
I love everything about Miles Sanders. He can catch, he can pass block, he runs powerful in both zone and man blocking. I thought he was flawless until I noticed that he often tries too hard to make something out of nothing.
Doing so usually causes mistakes, and Sanders is no exception to the rule. Sometimes he tries so hard to make a play that he loses track and of what’s important and fumbles the ball. In his 244 touches this past season, Sanders fumbled the ball five times. That’s almost one fumble every 50 touches, which would be equivalent to one fumble every three games in the NFL.
This is the one huge red flag that Sanders will have to deal with as he slides down the draft boards a little bit. NFL teams love superstar players, but they prefer ones who can hang onto the ball. That said, it’s more of a fault that Sanders is trying too hard, not caring too little. I’m not worried about it.
Sanders is a mature student of the game. He will succeed in any format with any team. My only hope is that he’ll be drafted by a team that needs a bell cow, not by a team that’ll use him in a timeshare.
Here’s a bonus run that’s worth watching:
Probability of Success: 95%
David Montgomery, Iowa State (ADP RB3)
This is one of the most puzzling players I think I have ever reviewed in my life. I spent more hours watching film and analyzing every little detail I could about David Montgomery. If I’m wrong about anybody in this draft, it’ll be this guy.
I find Montgomery to be a patient inside runner who loves to utilize his blocks (a-la Le’Veon Bell) and yet takes a long while to get to full speed (a-la Derrick Henry). How does a runner with zone instincts acquire great long speed? I have no idea.
He runs like Bell in the sense that he allows for his blocks to get into place, but unlike players like Bell, he’s not quick enough to run through holes created in any zone blocking schemes. He ends up turning his body and leaning into holes, rather than turning his hips and bursting through them.
His 10-yard split is 1.62 seconds, but it should be sub 1.6 seconds. His vertical jump is 28.5 inches, but it should be 32 minimum. Montgomery chose not to run the three-cone drill or 20-yard shuttle, drills that test his burst, agility, balance, quickness, and change of direction.
All of these are bad signs, and it just confirms everything I saw on tape; He’s nimble, breaks tackles and follows his blocks, but he lacks the quickness to be able to expand an offense and make it creative.
If he gets drafted to a power attack (Tampa Bay, Seattle, Baltimore) and he can be coached to be more of a power runner, Montgomery’s stock will go up. If he goes to a team that’s more complex and zone-oriented (Buffalo, Chicago) there might be some problems.
Probability of Success: 50% (depends on placement)
Darrell Henderson, Memphis (ADP RB4)
We’ve already heard several times about his size, where he’s only 5-10 and 208 pounds. Devonta Freeman is also 5-8 and stands at 210 pounds. Ray Rice? 5-8, 199 pounds. Maurice Jones-Drew? 5-7, 207 pounds.
I’m not saying he can do it, just that there are other examples of players who have done it. However, the one big difference is that Freeman, Rice, and Jones-Drew made their living by running around and running out of tackles. Henderson has made a name for himself running as fast as he could to get past and through people.
In a zone offense, this would be just fine. In a power attack with pulling guards and lead blockers, this isn’t ideal since these types of running backs will take the most contact and damage to their bodies. That’s red flag number one.
A big positive to his game is that he carries the ball high and tight in all of his tape. Upon further review, he’s only fumbled four times with nearly 500 total touches. That’s impressive for any running back at any level.
A big negative is that he only carries the ball in his left hand. I’ve made a point before about running backs who do this (see Ronald Jones III), but it bears repeating. If you come across such a player, chances are that he’s uncoachable.
Coaches don’t want a guy who is predictable. If you know a running back always has the ball in his left hand, then you also know an area with which you can punch it out. Worse yet, you know how to tackle said player because his free hand will always be his right hand. The fact that Henderson wants to play in the NFL but didn’t put in the work to carry the ball in his right hand is troublesome.
Henderson’s interviews confirm that suspicion. His answers aren’t articulate and responses seem generic. Another thing I’ve noticed is that he never runs in any zone plays, which requires a player to think and react to situations. Red flag number three.
I think Henderson will struggle to progress at the next level. He will need solid coaching and mentorship to succeed. I think Memphis did a great job of hiding his weaknesses and setting him up in positions where he can be successful. I don’t know if NFL coaches can or will be as accommodating.
Probability of Success: 15%
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