A View From the 1.06: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 21, 2019

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

Note: Our April super-flex rookie ADP is now available, so there is a possibility of seeing players already mentioned in previous editions of this series.

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1.06

The Pick: Miles Sanders, RB Penn State

One of the top stories of the pre-draft period from a dynasty point of view is the rapid rise of former Penn State running back Miles Sanders. After years of serving as a backup to Saquon Barkley, Sanders became the starter in 2018 and produced, reminding us all why he was the top running back recruit in his class. Dynasty players didn’t seem to appreciate Sanders until digging into the film, data and overall profile over the past few months. When that happened, Sanders’ ADP quickly climbed and he’s now in contention to be the top back drafted in dynasty rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

Other players who could be options in the middle of the round include David Montgomery, Kelvin Harmon and, if he falls to the third round of the NFL Draft, Hakeem Butler.

Trade Value:

1.06, Devonta Freeman for 1.10, Sony Michel
1.06, 2.06, Michael Gallup for 1.11, Derrick Henry, Sterling Shepard
1.06 for 1.08, 4.08, 2020 fourth

Super-Flex Options:

Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

Based on past years, it seems wild that the RB1 in both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts could fall to the middle of the first round. The combination of the top-heavy wideout class along with the super-flex format could create that exact result.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

You might have missed the release of the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer. If so, you’ll want to check that out immediately. Among its many uses is identifying the value of incoming rookie picks when compared to veteran players. I searched for the closest match among current NFL players in an effort to match the value of the 1.06 pick to give you an idea of what it might cost to acquire the pick, or who you could target if selling.

When the Chicago Bears dealt away starting running back Jordan Howard, his pass-catching teammate became even more interesting than he already was. Tarik Cohen has been a pleasant surprise since entering the league two years ago but will never be a lead back. Whether the Bears draft a rookie in the mid-rounds later this week or simply give Mike Davis a chance to carry the load, Cohen’s production will need to come as a receiver.

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2.06

The Pick: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Stanford

Stanford’s big receiving target JJ Arcega-Whiteside was a prospect on the rise until he sat out the NFL Combine, reportedly with a knee issue. That sent his stock tumbling and even a successful Pro Day did little to revive it. Now, he’s being viewed as a mid-second round dynasty option at the earliest and could fall to day three of the NFL Draft.

Possible Pivots:

The middle of the second round should still be filled with enticing dynasty prospects, including Andy Isabella, Justice Hill and Kyler Murray.

Trade Value:

2.06, Elijah McGuire for David Njoku, 3.08
2.06, 2.02, 2.04 for David Njoku
2.06, 2.11 for 2020 second

Super-Flex Options:

Drew Lock, QB Missouri

Missouri’s Drew Lock is being projected as a first-round NFL Draft pick, potentially being selected as early as the tenth overall pick. There is some warranted concern about Lock’s ceiling as a fantasy asset but even with that, a first-round quarterback falling this far is almost unheard of. Even Josh Allen a year ago was typically drafted before this point.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Speaking of players that are hated by the fantasy community, former Panthers receiver Devin Funchess was a 2018 bust after he had finally established himself the prior season. Funchess saw his dynasty value evaporate but it all came back when he signed with the receiver-needy Colts. If Indianapolis drafts a first-round receiver, as many are projecting, it could be back down the drain for Funchess. For now, he matches up well with the 2.06 rookie pick.

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3.06

The Pick: Riley Ridley, WR Georgia

During his college career at Georgia, receiver Riley Ridley did not have the production that was might typically associate with an NFL Draft prospect. Ridley, the brother of Falcons’ receiver Calvin, has good size and is an above average athlete but doesn’t have the route running skills of his brother. Many view him as one of their top ten receivers in the class, meaning it might be a rare occasion for him to even be available at this point in the mid-third round.

Possible Pivots:

If you are looking for options other than Ridley, and I suggest that you do, players like Alex Barnes, Benny Snell or James Williams could be more attractive.

Trade Value:

3.06 for 2020 third
3.06, Jerick McKinnon for 2.04, Latavius Murray
3.06 for Marcus Mariota

Super-Flex Options:

Mike Weber, RB Ohio State

The Ohio State running back Mike Weber was once thought of as a potential early-round draft pick. That changed when his college role was impacted by other Buckeyes’ backs, namely JK Dobbins, who could be a popular dynasty pick next year. There is still a lot to like about Weber, especially his current rookie ADP.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

The mid-third round aligns closely with Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills. If that makes you think “I’d rather just take a chance on a rookie,” you’re not alone.

4.06

The Pick: Mecole Hardman, WR Georgia

While he’s gotten almost no attention from dynasty owners, there seems to be a good chance that former Georgia receiver and special teams ace Mecole Hardman is drafted much earlier than we might expect, potentially on day two. If that happens, expect this fourth-round ADP to jump by a full round.

Possible Pivots:

Other fourth-round options include DaMarkus Lodge, Jalen Hurd and Stanley Morgan.

Super-Flex Options:

Myles Gaskin, RB Washington

You probably know the name Myles Gaskin quite well if you are a college football fan. That’s because he basically started for the Huskies from day one of his college career. Unfortunately, that does not make him a great NFL prospect, hence the fourth-round ADP. Even at this late point, I would look for other options.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.