Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Andy Isabella, WR of UMass. You can also check out all of our NFL Draft Prospect articles here. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
I love this wide receiver class. If you have read any of my other articles, or Twitter posts, this may give you a sense of whiplash. I’ve repeatedly said I think it’s weaker than advertised. So what’s going on here, and am I flip-flopping? No, I’m tightrope walking.
Even in a “bad class”, the hits can be great. DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen come from a lousy class, for example. In many ways, the way we each play dynasty can be described by how we like to try and traverse this tightrope of the value rookie picks and the worth of players.
So, do I like this rookie class? No, I think there are some real stinkers waiting in the first and second round who could really hurt your team because of draft hype if you overpay for them. But are there some good players you don’t want to miss out on? Heck yeah, buddy.
Which ones? Well that’s’ the trick, isn’t it? I lean on college production to try and increase my hit rate. Some use a balance of film and production. Some use dart boards. Some like Riley Ridley. It takes all sorts. We won’t know the answers for about three years. But, be assured there is probably at least one player in this class you will wish you would have drafted before he broke out.
That’s why I love this class. Not because of its depth, but because of its pick your poison nature. If you want Hakeem Butler, you can get him in the middle of the first round, you don’t necessarily need a top two pick. And if you want Andy Isabella, as I do, you might not even need a second.
So, yes, I love this class. Now, let me tell you why I’m eager to take a shot on Isabella.
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The Stats
Isabella played for Massachusetts, and just in case you don’t’ follow college football and are wondering: no, that’s not good. The team was in the MAC conference in his first year, but by the time he started playing significant time they had become part of the “independent” conference, which is the same things as a group of teams with no conference along with Army and BYU, Mexico State, and others.
Table from sports-reference.com.
However, as we know, good players do sometimes come from smaller schools. What do those players have in common more than anything else? They were dominant on their college teams. They may not be first round picks but they were number one on their college offense.
So, what percentage of his team’s receiving yards was Isabella putting up and how does that compare to other successful NFL players?
The graph is based on the data in my own market share database.
If you haven’t read many (or any) of my other articles then you may not know that it’s Isabella’s age-19 season that catches my eye more than his age-21, and best, season. The fact he continued to dominate both in yards and touchdowns (he had a 25%, 28%, and a 48% share of receiving touchdowns in his final three years) is also positive. While I haven’t found a predictive trend, I have noticed that players who dominate mostly in touchdowns can struggle when they get to the NFL more often. Whether that’s because of scheme or the increased difficulty of routes at the next level, I’m not sure.
Ultimately even factoring in his conference, or lack thereof, Isabella was still significantly over the average player in dominance. Over his college career, he caught 25% more of his team’s receiving yards than most players at this level once the age of production is factored in.
The Film
This is where I put my usual disclaimer that I do not consider myself a film scout or tape grinder. I do watch football and I try to glean what I can from it. However, I also rely heavily on the work of those who specialize in breaking down film like our friend Jake Anderson here at DLF. Now here’s a highlight video for funsies.
Isabella is a deep threat. It’s true. There were very few people who could keep up with him when he got up to speed and he got there very quickly. However, what sticks out on his film, in my opinion, is that his deep ability was not the majority of his game.
In the first year at Massachusetts, when he only played two games, he also put up over 300 kick return yards on seventeen attempts. His display of athletics and an ability to move in traffic were enough to help him get more opportunity in his next season. However, that ability in traffic was still on display when he was catching targets. He shows an ability to make a play, in short, and gain yards even when the tackler gets some contact.
While I by no means think the Independent defenses he faced have prepared him for the level of the NFL, I do think it would be a mistake to write him off as someone with only one aspect to his game. He can run routes and gain yards by himself as well.
The Measurables
Let’s just put it out there, shall we? Is Isabella small and fast? Yes. Yes, he is. There’s really no denying those are the primary features of his physical profile. His combine numbers have him compared best to players like Travis Benjamin, Keke Coutee, John Brown, and Tyler Lockett.
Luckily for us, physical measurements are the first thing you can dull if they don’t match up with the rest of a player’s profile. Is this because they don’t matter? Well, no. But we do know that combine testing does not test the way a player plays on the field. We also know that when looking at the best players in the NFL at the position right now, they all look different. Some are over 6’2”, others under 6’. Some run under 4.4 seconds in the 40-yard dash and others run over 4.6. In the end, if the physicals don’t match up with the tape or the production, fade the physical.
The NFL is a physical game. I don’t mean to suggest that being 5’9” tall and 188 lbs is a great thing for an NFL player. I just think it means a lot less for what Isabella is capable of doing in the NFL than everything else.
Dynasty value
Right now, Isabella is being drafted as the 22nd rookie off the board according to DLF ADP. However, in my rookie mocks, I’m taking him in the late first. With everything we have to go on (right now), Isabella is one of only a few prospects I can honestly say are more likely to finish in the top 24 in PPR scoring in the NFL in his first three years.
If he were to slip out of the first three rounds of the NFL draft, that would change. But we also know wide receivers hold their value longer and in fact, it often increases even when they don’t do very much in their rookie season.
Balancing it all together, I think Isabella is worth a late first round pick. And like other high college producers before him, I think he could easily rise up in ADP by the time his rookie season is over.
Conclusion
Is Andy Isabella TY Hilton? No, that’s why they have different names. Plus Hilton’s profile was a lot better than Isabella’s at this point in the off-season of his draft year. (He broke out with over 20% of his team’s college production at age 18, for example.) However, it is my hope and expectation that Isabella will be drafted in the first three rounds to a good landing spot.
In this class, I’ll take my chances with someone like Andy Isabella over almost any other wide receiver other than my number one.
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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I’ll give you this; I like him more than Marquise Brown because he weighs 20 pounds more, but I wouldn’t draft either one if I’m looking to build a receiving corp. At least Brown played real defenses, but he’s gonna get yard-saled in OTAs. Isabella played defenses that many High Schools could score on. You can’t coach speed, but you can’t coach size either. 1st round? No thank you. 3rd round? Maybe. But I’d rather draft any receiver over 6’0 and 200 pounds who runs a 4.5 to 4.6 as a better long term play. I just don’t see how Isabella can hold up. Sure, you have to catch him, but you only have to do it once. Once…
To be fair, he’s about the same size as tyreek hill, not saying this kid will be anything like that, but hey… some small/fast guys can just plain ball.
True, plenty of guys in the 5’9”-5’10” and 180-200 range do very well. Tate, AB, Lockett, TY, Crowder, Welker, Baldwin, Edelman, etc and it seems there was an article on this site that highlighted the top WR success split between “big/prototypical” size guys vs “smaller” guys was just that, a split.
