When I first started out as a dynasty owner, one of the most confusing aspects was figuring out the value of rookie draft picks. I didn’t know if the picks were worth hanging onto, or trading for vets, or should be consolidated to trade up, or maybe to trade down and acquire as many picks as possible.
I was clueless and there wasn’t much help anywhere to be found on the internet. Trading calculators all seemed to have no rhyme or reason for their calculations, and dynasty writers would give me feedback that would contradict one another. I had to find a better way.
First of all, I want to say that I hate all draft pick charts I’ve ever encountered. Too many people live by them without knowing the math behind creating them. This motivated me to make my own. I was a double major in college (statistics and mathematics) and the research behind finding the correlation between successful NFL fantasy players and rookie-draft placement interested me.
This article is going to cover four topics. The first is that of accurately assessing rookie pick value. The second is for using that value when trading for other rookie picks. The third is for assessing rookie pick value when trading for veteran players. The last looks at future rookie pick trading.
You can follow his opinions on Twitter @MikeEHavens