The 2019 NFL draft is coming and I’m breaking down past wide receiver classes, looking for patterns in production from 2012-2017. Instead of my usual attempts and broad scale context and examples, instead I want to look more specifically and conversationally. This will give us a six-year sample of what wide receiver production looked like, without having to justify every sentence with a graph.
We’re making a model but with words.
So let’s check in on the third season that was, compared to the three or four years before it, part of a wide receiver recession.
First up, let’s admit the recession we all remember, or at least the one I thought we’d been through, wasn’t that bad. Depending on who you think of as hits and misses, the number of good wide receivers didn’t fluctuate much through 2012-2016. While we saw a lot of first rounders go down (maybe due to over drafting, maybe to injury) we also saw that this was true in a different way for the 2012 class.
As a quick measure, and to put one of our patterns to use, players who get over 600 receiving yards in their rookie season more often go on to have good careers then not. Seven out of the 25 rookies (28%) to do that since 2012 were drafted during my so-called “recession” years.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
Latest posts by Peter Howard (see all)
- Production Patterns: The Threshold Model and the 2019 Draft Class - March 18, 2019
- Production Patterns: Past Draft Classes – 2017 - March 17, 2019
- Production Patterns: Past Draft Classes – 2016 - March 16, 2019