Mythbusters: Is Marvin Jones a Future Top-24 Wide Receiver?

In 2019, the Detroit Lions had the perfect storm hit their organization; trading a productive wide receiver (Golden Tate) only to have the other (Marvin Jones) suffer an injury that would take him out of the rest of the season.

Jones has never been considered elite talent but has always managed to find his way into many fantasy football teams. His injury has left many dynasty owners curious towards his future. What will this offense look like once he is healthy and furthermore, what production should we expect to see from him going into 2019?

This series takes a look at individual players and uses data and evidence to support a claim or hypothesis. I will be impartial and present one of two conclusions:

CONFIRMED (Data supports the claim or hypothesis.)

or

BUSTED (Data does not support the claim or hypothesis.)

The papers claim: “Marvin Jones is a top-24 wide receiver in fantasy football moving forward.”

In order to discover if this “Myth” is Confirmed or Busted, we must look at what data we have at hand, both from a player and system standpoint.

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Player

First, let’s examine the nine games that Marvin Jones did manage to play this year and compare them to other wideouts from across the league. Below is a graph depicting the top 30 wide receivers and their averages per game for the last nine games they played (regardless of injury).

Statistics from www.fantasydata.com.

Doing a quick scan, we can see that Jones ranked 27th among other wideouts at 12.9 fantasy points (PPR) average points per game, falling just short of the hypothesis of a top 24 option. However, I would like to point out some irregularities.

Jones outscored his teammate Kenny Golladay. Although this could be due to a difference in the schedule, it is interesting as Golladay finished above a top-24 option in PPR formats.

The next statistic that needs to be evaluated is his opportunity ratio. Like many players chosen for this series, Jones dealt with injury throughout a majority of the season. So how do we compare them to players who were on the field each and every play? The common statistic I reach for is fantasy points per opportunity: how many fantasy points a player received divided by the number of targets or carries they had. This allows for injury and missed games to become a non-factor. Simply put, what did this player do with the opportunity given to them?

My research started with a comparison of Marvin Jones to the WR1 (DeAndre Hopkins) and the WR24 (Adam Humphries) and can be seen below.

Statistics from www.ffstatistics.com.

The data shows that Jones’ production falls directly between the two compared wideouts (1.87 fantasy points per opportunity compared to Humphries’ 1.78, and Hopkins’ 2.06). Seeing this data adds to the possibility of Jones being a top-24 option at the position as long as he is given the opportunity.

Opportunity is king in fantasy football, but how many opportunities was he given? In order to better understand, we can find out how many targets he was getting an average game and assume that would have continued for the remainder of the 2018 season. Although a bold assumption, it will give us additional insight into his future production.

In 2018

Average targets per game: 6.88

Projected targets for full 16 games: 110.222

Projected fantasy total: Targets (110) x Opportunity Ratio (1.87) = 206.11 Fantasy Points.

Making these assumptions and predictions, we can estimate that he was in line to receive 206.11 fantasy points – thus finishing as the WR23 in most PPR formats. Adding to this,  Jones took 89% of offensive snaps through week ten. This was ranked 15th among all wide receivers in the NFL. All evidence points out that he could have finished as a top-24 option.

System

This was by far the hardest aspect to predict when looking into Jones’ future. There was a new coach, multiple injuries, and a season that did not go as planned. However, with all that variability, there are still some solid stats and facts that can be extrapolated.

The first, as mentioned above, is his fantasy points per opportunity – not only to other players but rather players on his own team. Below is a graph that depicts all of the Detroit Lions’ main wideouts throughout the last eight years.

Statistics from www.ffstatistics.com.

Doing a quick scan of the data, we can see some surprising developments. The first aspect we have to draw attention to is the fact that Jones leads the pack almost every year. Even in 2018, he led with 1.87 fantasy points per opportunity over Golladay at 1.74 and Tate at 1.55. This means that to recent date, Jones does more with each target he receives than any other wideout on his team. This could be due to the type of targets that he receives. Getting targeted in deeper passes allows for more prolific numbers in this category.

Expanding on opportunity data, airyards.com also provides insight. This table uses a weighted opportunity ratio and also sets a trend line for the top-24 wide receivers. Using this, we can get a strong indication of the claim. For good measure, Golladay was added as a comparative reference.

The aspect that first seems to jump off the page is the fact that Jones seems to spend the majority of the time below the trend line. Thus, not showing well for our claim. Additionally, we should note that Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay seem to have an inverse relationship. When one player is performing well, the other seems to struggle. Another mentionable stat is the fact that Jones produces over the WR24 mark in week eight – the same week Golden Tate was traded to the Eagles. With such a small sample size of two games it is hard to say there is a direct correlation, but should be a factor when diagnosing Jones’ future production.

Conclusion: BUSTED

Marvin Jones is not a top-24 wide receiver in fantasy football moving forward. There is some plausible evidence that Jones could be WR24 or higher, but most of it seems circumstantial. I think there is every reason to believe he has the opportunity to fall in the top-30 wideouts for the 2019 season.

Fantasy Implications

Regardless of his status of busted, I think Jones is a buy in most dynasty formats. This is a player who has proven to be useful to fantasy teams in the past and has a new opportunity given to him now that Tate has vacated. An additional factor is always price. As of recent data, Marvin Jones’ ADP in dynasty is WR46, giving plenty of room for value. Moreover, with the DLF trade finder we can see Jones get traded for some lower values:

Although not a top-24 wideout, value can be found from a productive player who may find himself in a new opportunity. I would be jumping at the chance to buy any 28-year-old wideout who could be a weekly starter. So send out some offers and test how other owners feel about his value.

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