Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Rodgers signed a new four-year contract in 2018, essentially making him a Green Bay Packer for life while getting the money he deserves. The $134m contract makes him the highest paid player in the NFL, but it comes at a price for the Packers who are still a mid-level market team. It could minimize the offensive and defensive weapons the organization is able to surround him with, which has been the largest critique of the green and gold for the last five years.
Although 2018 featured some high notes in Rodgers’ historic career, the season followed an unfamiliar script of inconsistent quarterback play, which has not been seen in his play before.
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Rodgers threw for 4,442 yards, the second highest mark of his career, and tossed just two interceptions, a new career record. Despite these excellent numbers, the eye-opening totals included:
- 62.7% completion percentage (only twice had thrown below 63% in career).
- 25 touchdowns thrown. Lowest mark of his career in 16-game seasons.
- 4.2 touchdown percentage. Lowest since becoming Green Bay starter.
- Sacked a total of 49 times, third highest in career (50, 51).
While some of the numbers do appear concerning, Rodgers did suffer a serious knee sprain in week one which severely limited his ability throughout the season. Add in the departure of Jordy Nelson, and inconsistent wide receiver play from the Packers’ rookies and you might expect to see some decline.
He is a great buy-low candidate right now, but his window of availability is shrinking to do so. To start the season, Rodgers held an ADP of 34, but that has declined rapidly to 85.25.
While he isn’t your traditional buy-low target, you can still find a few owners who are looking to sell him in search of younger talent. He’s still worth every penny.
It has been a rough go around for Kizer, who was a highly-touted prospect coming out of Notre Dame. He was traded to the Packers after his rookie season with the Browns, and will hope he can develop under Rodgers.
Kizer appeared in three games in 2018. He completed only 20 passes for 187 yards and threw two interceptions. After throwing an astonishing 22 interceptions in 2017, Kizer still finished this season with a higher interception percentage.
He’s worth a stash in superflex leagues due to Rodgers’ growing injury concerns, but he should most definitely be left on waivers in a majority of standard dynasty leagues. Keep an eye on his growth in fall camp and preseason, but he still has a lot to accomplish.
A long shot to become a starter for the Green Bay Packers, Tim Boyle will spend the off-season continuing to develop under Rodgers and may even compete for the backup role with Kizer when fall camp opens up. He currently holds little to no value in any dynasty format. In superflex formats, keep an eye on him during preseason.
In his second season, Jones improved upon a 2017 which left fans drooling over his high volume play ability. In 2018, Jones led the NFL averaging 5.5 yards per carry, rushed for nearly 800 yards and scored a total of nine touchdowns, despite missing four total games due to suspension and injury.
Dynasty owners have often times found themselves frustrated with Jones’ usage within the Packers offensive schemes, as it would appear at times that he was a complete second thought in the playcalling. Hopefully, with the removal of head coach Mike McCarthy and the hiring of Matt LaFleur, Jones will receive a more clear cut picture into what type of usage he’ll receive.
Jones began the 2018 season with an overall ADP of 96.5, which has since climbed impressively to 38.5 in January as he is being selected within the top 15-20 of available running backs.
He only had three games in 2018 where he carried the ball 15 times or more. With counterpart Jamaal Williams being a large factor in the offense as well, there are still doubts whether either running back can ever be a true RB1 in terms of fantasy value. I expect a healthy Rodgers and a healthy Jones to lead the Packers’ offense in 2019, with the emergence of an effective running game where Jones can be an every-down back.
While Jones is the clear favorite in the backfield, Williams continues to get consistent opportunities to prove himself within the offense. As stated above with Jones, Williams also had three games of 15 rushing attempts or more, and received more than 200 more snaps on offense than did Jones.
Despite the favorable opportunities, Williams has failed to prove himself on the efficiency side of the ball, which largely limits his value in dynasty leagues. Despite 130+ touches, Williams averaged only 3.8 yards on the ground and 7.8 yards through the air. In total, he scored only three touchdowns and rushed for 464 yards despite being the clear-cut RB1 for four games.
Williams’ ADP says its all. He began the 2018 season with an ADP of 75.67, but has since plummeted down to an ADP of 166.5 with the proven track record of Jones in the backfield.
While he has failed to capitalize on his opportunities, I still am not sold on the idea of Jones being the franchise face at running back for the Packers. Given Jones’ proven injury history and off-field issues, I would still value Williams higher than most. He has the chance to be the third-down back for Green Bay and could increase his role if Jones finds himself struggling at any time.
Bibbs is signed through the 2019 season. It is a terrific fit for the five-year pro, who has always dreamed of ending up with the storied franchise. Released from the Washington Redskins and picked up by the Packers late in the season, Bibbs saw actual playing time in just one game with the team.
Bibbs rushed for 103 yards in 2018, scored three touchdowns and added 16 receptions out of the backfield, proving he can be a do-it-all running back when needed. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry this past season, and with a summer under his belt, Bibbs could build some trust with Rodgers to be utilized in the passing game in 2019.
I don’t typically scream out “sleeper” with a player whose sample size is so small, but I truly could see Bibbs holding a role within the Packers offense this year. He’s in the best playing situation of his life, and although he’s stacked behind two starting running backs, he could easily find a niche within this team like most successful Packers do.
Add Bibbs during the off-season and see what becomes of him this summer. It may just be the best decision you make in 2019.
Adams has emerged the the clear cut WR1 of the Green Bay Packers, and not only that, but also proved he can be included in the argument for the league’s best receiver.
He is currently ranked as the fifth best wide receiver on DLF’s rankings and holds an overall ADP of 11.67, putting him in the first round of dynasty startups for the first time in his career.
Adams averaged an astonishing 11.2 targets per game, which he turned into 169 receptions for over 1,300 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns. He is no doubt the face of the receivers for this franchise and is paired with one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
He signed a four-year extension with the Packers in 2018 and should be the WR1 moving forward for what could be the rest of Rodgers’ career.
With Geronimo Allison out for a majority of the season, Adams was called upon to carry a heavy workload for the franchise. I wouldn’t expect him to quite repeat the same numbers from 2018, but he could increase his touchdown totals which wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Cobb filled in nicely in 2018 with the multiple injuries the Packers offensive skill players suffered. However, it would appear that his time in Green Bay has come and he should be set to become a free agent this summer.
The eight-year veteran has struggled with injuries over the last several seasons, and 2018 was not any different. Cobb missed seven games due to injury, giving an explanation for some of the lowest numbers in his career.
Cobb will look to sign with a slot-needy team this off-season as a free agent, which could be particularly difficult given the fact that he was injured for a portion of the 2018 season. However, he is consistent in his play when on the field. Cobb has just six drops in over 240 targets over the past three seasons, which is why he has been one of Rodgers’ favorite targets.
Allison is set to be a free agent this summer, but given the favor he has within the Packers’ organization and with Rodgers, I would expect to see the third-year man out of Illinois back on the field in 2019.
Allison appeared in five games before suffering a significant groin injury, which cost him the 2018 season and landed him on the season-ending injury reserve. Prior to this setback, Allison had caught 20 of his 30 targets for 303 yards and two touchdowns. His pace for the season was terrific and he appeared to be a favorite downfield target of Rodgers.
In October of 2018, Allison held an ADP of 100.25 – the highest of his career – but after injury and the uncertainty of free agency, his ADP plummeted to 211.75 in December 2018. He is on the mend and rising up ADP charts, but will be affected most by the decision of the Packers to re-sign him or not.
It would be silly for Allison to not work out a deal this summer and re-sign with the Packers. He is one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, and the franchise has believed in him since he arrived day one. I predict his ADP will once again climb to that 100.25 mark and will even go above that, so buy him at the cheap price while you can.
Valdes-Scantling got his rookie season started off on the right foot in 2018 thanks in large part to some key injuries to the Packers’ receiving corps. He ultimately caught 38 passes for 581 yards and hauled in his first two career touchdowns in the process.
The ceiling came down quickly on Valdes-Scantling however, as the rookie receiver struggled with drops, route running and separation speed on the outside. In seven of the 16 games that he appeared in, Valdes-Scantling caught two or fewer passes despite a relatively high number of targets. Moving forward, he will need to work on his rapport with Rodgers and improve his lowly 52% catch percentage if he wants to continue receiving quality playing time.
His ADP climbed as high as 89.25 in November of 2018 but has slightly declined to 122.67 as of January. With the expectation of an improved passing game in 2019 for the Packers, I wouldn’t set my hopes too high for him to carve out a consistent role.
St. Brown caught 21 passes for 328 yards, averaging almost 16 yards per reception. However, like Valdes-Scantling, he only had a 58% catch percentage, which he will look to improve upon next year. While some will chalk that up to simple drops or bad hands, generally in a rookie season it is a mixture of the former, but mostly miscommunication and poor route running.
Though he failed to find the end zone this season, St. Brown saw consistency in his targets, and he’s my pick to be a breakout player for the Packers in 2019. He currently holds a very low ADP of 183.83 and I expect that to climb into the 100-120 range by the start of the 2019 NFL season.
Kumerow was a fan favorite of the Packers heading into the season, and most expected him to make a big splash in 2018. A crucial injury in the preseason cost him most of his opportunity, and now the decision is on the Packers to bring him back for another year.
He appeared in five games, catching just eight passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. While the sample size is way too small to truly know what he can do, we know Rodgers is a big fan of his. If we know anything about Rodgers, it’s that if he trusts you, you will get the ball.
Kumerow should be available in most leagues, as he just surfaced on DLF’s ADP rankings for the first time this January at 213.50. If the Packers re-sign him, grab him and stash him while you still can.
The rookie out of Missouri will be playing catch up against the rest of the Packers’ receivers who seized their chance to shine in 2018. Moore caught just two passes for 15 yards and looks to be trending towards a regular special teams assignment before being utilized in the passing game. He doesn’t need to be rostered in your dynasty formats.
He’s a speedy special teams returner who has been surpassed by other receiving options. He hasn’t proved to be a worthwhile threat in the passing game.
Quite a disappointment for both sides here. Graham saw the most snaps in his nine-year career but simply could not find production within the Packers offense.
His ADP has dropped nearly 100 spots from the start of the 2018 NFL season, and he no doubt will not be re-signed by the Packers for 2019.
It was a lot of hype that didn’t pay dividends within the Packers’ offense that focuses primarily on the wide receivers.
The eight-year pro was reliable for the Packers in 2018, but reliable doesn’t not always correlate with the needed production. Due to be a free agent this summer, I could see the Packers bringing him back for that same security, but don’t expect him to be a high-usage target in the passing game.
Lewis will be a free agent for the 2019 season, and could potentially hang up his jersey for retirement if an offer is not made to him. He showed little involvement within the Packers offense in terms of fantasy, so he should not need to be targeted in any league format.
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