Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
QUARTERBACK
Blake Bortles (JAN ADP: 238.67, QB30)
2018 was a rough year for Bortles. His performance caused him to get benched a few times during the season and he also had to deal with injuries. After passing for 2,718 yards and 11 touchdowns and completing just 60.3 percent of his passes, it appears his tenure in Jacksonville is over. There were rumblings that the team was looking for a replacement during the trade deadline. There are also rumors swirling that Nick Foles could be a candidate to be the team’s starting quarterback next season. Nonetheless, Bortles is good as gone.
With an ADP of 238.67, making him the 30th quarterback off the board in startup drafts, Bortles is more than just a falling knife. His dynasty value has already been zapped away and we are just grasping for straws at this point. No matter how far he falls in the draft, he should be a player that you avoid at all costs. An NFL team will need to be in dire straights before they let Bortles start for them. It appears that he’s going to be a backup for the remainder of his career unless he turns things around. I don’t recommend investing in a player whose dynasty value will bottom out in a few months. You’re better off spending the pick on anything else.
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Cody Kessler (JAN ADP: N/A)
Kessler got the chance to play in five games this season, passing for 709 yards and two scores. He has one year left on his contract and his salary is dirt cheap. He’s a decent NFL backup, but he’s not a player you want in your starting lineup. This makes him virtually worthless in dynasty. Even in deep super-flex leagues, he’s still best left on the waiver wire.
Tanner Lee (JAN ADP: N/A)
The Jaguars drafted Lee in the sixth round in last year’s draft. He spent most of the season on the team’s practice squad. He will need a good performance in training camp if he wants to stick with the team. Obviously, the Jaguars have some ambiguity at quarterback and there could be some opportunities for him if he plays well in preseason.
RUNNING BACK
Leonard Fournette (JAN ADP: 34.50, RB14)
2018 was a forgettable year for Fournette. Injuries and a suspension tempered his availability and caused him to play in just half the season. The Jaguars were planning on force feeding him the ball, but those plans fell through early in the season. He did have two games with 24 carries or more. His 3.3 yards per carry might have been due to him playing against eight or more defenders in the box on 35.34 percent of his carries. The injuries took a toll on his body and it was hard for him to recover mid-season.
Fournette’s dynasty ADP took a wild ride, going from 14 overall at the beginning of the season to all the way down to 34.5, making him the 14th running back off the board in startup drafts. There’s a big disparity in his value right now. You can either look at him as a buy low and take advantage of his current price point, or you can put your hands up, walk away, and let someone else draft him. Either way, you have to make a decision here. All be it, some of the players are older, but you are passing on some solid talent when you’re drafting in this range of the draft. Some names that you’re passing on are Derrius Guice, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Boyd and many more. We have to carefully tread the waters in the third and fourth rounds of startup drafts this year.
Another thing to consider is that he regains health, gains a rapport with John DeFilippo the team’s new offensive coordinator, then he could be one of the top running backs in the league again. The gain in value could allow you to move him for another stud player or you could sit back and tally the extra points in your lineup. This is one scenario that could happen next. Even if we are not 100 percent sure anymore that he’s a clear-cut RB1, we can’t leave him for dead.
T.J. Yeldon (JAN ADP: 103.00, RB37)
After a season where Yeldon caught 55 passes out of the backfield for 487 yards and four touches, he will be a free agent in 2019. In a weak free agent class where there’s not much running back talent for teams to choose from, Yeldon might be one of the most interesting free agent signings this year. His receiving ability adds value in fantasy. If he goes to a team with a high powered passing offense, then his dynasty value could dramatically increase. Not only can he catch the ball out of the backfield but he’s very solid running between the tackles. You might want to kick the tires to see if you can get him cheap on the trade market, because if he lands in the right spot in free agency then you could resell him for a decent return.
Carlos Hyde (JAN ADP: 130.50, RB46)
The Browns traded Hyde to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 2019 fifth-round pick last season. The team was hoping he would fill the void since Fournette was out nursing an injury. Just like in Cleveland, he struggled to reach his true potential, rushing for a mere 189 yards while averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Transitioning to a new team and injuries could have been the cause to his collapse at the end of the season. He’s signed with the team through 2020, but he’s a potential cut candidate, considering he costs nothing against the cap this year. If he shows up to camp injured, out of shape or doesn’t play well, the Jaguars could tell him to pack his bags. This could be good for his fantasy value because it’s going to be hard for him to see a large market share of the touches out of the backfield with Fournette on the roster. He’s only a buy if you can get him for next to nothing.
Corey Grant (JAN ADP: 222.50, RB79)
Grant was pegged as a breakout candidate by many after Fournette went down with an injury. Unfortunately, he suffered a Lis Franc injury that ended his season. He will be a free agent this year. There’s a chance he could re-sign with the team since he won’t command a massive salary. No matter where he goes, he has the potential to be a usable fantasy asset if he gets the opportunity to see a sizeable workload. Those chances are few and far between, but it’s still something to monitor.
David Williams (JAN ADP: N/A)
The Jaguars promoted him to the active roster in early October. At that time, he was the third running back on the roster. He toted the rock just eight times for 36 yards on the season. He’s going to struggle during camp to stay on the roster and he could be out of the league before the season starts. Williams shouldn’t be on anyone’s radar right now.
Thomas Rawls (JAN ADP: N/A)
The Jaguars signed Rawls to a cheap futures deal. As we all remember from his days in Seattle, he’s a hard nosed-runner who excels at finding the hole and bursting through the seam with power. He is not the most athletic back in the league, but he makes up for that with assertiveness and grit. If he can get the ball rolling during training camp, then he could be a steal off the waiver wire. I suggest taking a look at him if he’s on your waiver wire. He’s a trendy end-of-bench stash to see what happens. There’s nothing to lose, he’s free and you can always cut him for someone else if you get tired of lugging him around.
WIDE RECEIVER
Dede Westbrook (JAN ADP: 102.83, WR45)
After a tough season in Jacksonville, Westbrook made the best of his situation, catching 64 passes for 668 yards five touchdowns. He had a 19 percent target share and posted an 8.5 average depth of target. With 187 PPR fantasy points, he finished the season as WR28, making him a steady WR3 in fantasy. He scored 12 points or more in eight games this season. The ineptitude of the Jaguars’ passing offense kept Westbrook from breaking out last season.
The Jaguars have him signed through 2020. He’s just 25 years old and has a lot of potential. If Jacksonville’s passing game can kick it up a notch, then Westbrook’s value in fantasy will definitely rise. The former Biletnikoff Award Winner should be on sale at a palatable price point in most dynasty leagues. Since he plays for Jacksonville, there’s a negative perception that currently caps his value. Obviously, that can change with a new quarterback and a more efficient passing offense. Right now, if you’re a fan of Westbrook or any of the other pass catchers in the offense, then you should take advantage of their discounted price tags.
D.J. Chark (JAN ADP: 182.33, WR72)
Chark had an interesting profile coming out of LSU. He tested with a 4.34 40-yard dash and a 40-inch vertical jump at the combine. During his final season at LSU, he posted a 33.04 percent market share of the team’s passive offense. The Jaguars noticed his production and athletic metrics and drafted in the second round of last year’s draft. With speed to burn and the draft capital to back it up, Chark is a very intriguing prospect.
Marqise Lee (JAN ADP: 194.50, WR77)
Lee hurt his knee in the third preseason game, causing him to miss the entire season. He is signed with the team through 2021 and should be a key contributor to the offense going forward. Since he is out of sight and out of mind, his trade value is borderline free. His 194.50 ADP makes him a very safe gamble in startup drafts.
Donte Moncrief (JAN ADP: 204.50, WR84)
Moncrief signed a one year deal with the Jaguars last off-season. In a few weeks, he will be testing the free agent waters. He has flashed potential multiple times during his career, but hasn’t put it together for a long period of time. Hopefully, he lands in the right offense where he can receive enough targets to be fantasy relevant.
Keelan Cole (JAN ADP: 208.83, WR85)
Cole was a popular sleeper pick going into the season. The year prior he caught 42 passes for 748 and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, he couldn’t carry over that success to this year, scoring just 20.6 PPR fantasy points in the final eight games of the season.
Recently, he has seen a massive decrease in trade value and can be had for a song on the trade market. If you want him, get him. If not, stay away. Don’t expect much in return if you’re trying to sell him. Once the rookie wide receivers get through the draft, Cole’s value should drop even more.
Rashad Greene (JAN ADP: N/A)
He will be a free agent this off-season and quite frankly, he doesn’t have enough upside to make him rosterable in dynasty. Leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs.
TIGHT END
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (JAN ADP: 235.83, TE37)
We might not see Seferian-Jenkins suit up in a Jaguars uniform next season. It appears that the team might decline their 2019 option and make him a free agent. They have until February to make a decision on his contract. He will definitely get a shot with another team if he hits free agency. At his current price, he could be a big mover if he gets picked up by the right team.
James O’Shaughnessy (JAN ADP: N/A)
Unless he gets funneled targets, I don’t ever see him making an impact in fantasy. He’ll be a free agent in the off-season and it’s hard to predict how his future will unfold. The Jaguars are either keeping Seferian-Jenkins or they are grabbing another tight end either through free agency or the draft.
Blake Bell (JAN ADP: N/A)
Bell will also be a free agent this off-season. At best, he will be a journeyman backup in the league.
Ben Koyack (JAN ADP: N/A)
He is signed with the team through 2019, but his contract doesn’t count against the cap and the team can easily cut him if they feel it’s necessary. He’s not a talent that you need to think of getting off the waiver wire. This team is going to bring in a few tight ends this off-season.
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