Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes (JAN ADP: 26.5, QB1)
It’s hard to put into words how good Mahomes’ first season was. A 5,000 yard, 50 touchdown passing season is a milestone for anyone; to do so with one prior game of experience is incredible. From no-look lasers to off-platform sidearms, how he accomplished it was equally remarkable.
Simply put, Mahomes is an individual superstar playing in one of the NFL’s best offensive systems alongside perhaps the league’s best receiving corps. In other words, the stars have aligned to create a nearly perfect situation for him to flourish in. Carrying forward, Mahomes’ supporting talent could take some hits, but both the ceiling and the floor are extremely high.
That leaves injury as the only threat to his fantasy production, as applies to any other player. Regular Chiefs viewers can speak to how regularly Mahomes has come up hobbling after hits this season, though he still managed to gut out 99 percent of Kansas City’s offensive snaps. On one hand, the frequency of these minor dings could suggest that a bigger injury is on the horizon. On the other, it appears that he can endure the little things pretty well, and he should be able to protect himself better in the future with more experience.
Either way, injury concerns aren’t enough to keep him from easily being my — and the community’s — top dynasty quarterback.
Chad Henne (JAN ADP: N/A)
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Henne threw all of three passes this season. That should be expected for any Mahomes backup heading into the future, but he could gain value if Mahomes were to get hurt because of KC’s excellent passing ecosystem. Henne’s contract currently runs into the 2019 regular season, so he should maintain that (potential) value for at least a year.
RUNNING BACK
Damien Williams (ADP: 76.8, RB30)
Williams’s production took off with Kareem Hunt’s release toward the end of the regular season. After just three carries in the first 11 weeks, Williams took 47 rushes for 255 yards and four touchdowns, and caught 20 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns in six games. He then ran for 129 yards on 25 carries and another touchdown in the divisional playoff round against the Colts. Qualitatively, he looked like one of the quickest players on the field in each performance.
Those showings could be crucial to Williams’ dynasty prospects. The Chiefs could take many courses of action with the running back position in 2019 after Hunt’s departure, either filling a perceived hole through free agency or the draft, or staying put. While it didn’t seem like Williams would be a plausible long-term replacement for Hunt directly after the release, after Williams’s first couple strong performances, the Chiefs extended his contract by two years — suggesting that he has a legitimate chance to keep his spot next year. However, that spot is far from guaranteed; after all, the last time the Chiefs took a running back with a mid-round pick, it turned out pretty well for them (while it lasted).
Still, If he does make it relatively unscathed through the off-season, it’s obviously great news for him: In his five games with a full workload, Williams averaged 18.7 PPR points per game.
With a relatively uncertain future, it’d be wise to value him somewhere between being a lead back and replaced — and his ADP indicates that the dynasty community is doing just that.
Spencer Ware (ADP: 167.5, RB61)
Ware ran for just 246 yards and two touchdowns largely in a backup role in 2018. While he was a solid starting running back in 2016, before his injury and Hunt’s emergence in 2017, he couldn’t reclaim that spot when Hunt left this season. Ware was efficient with his carries (with 4.8 yards per carry), so he is a perfectly viable backup, but probably just that.
Darrel Williams (ADP: 212.0, RB75)
The other D. Williams amassed only 13 rushing attempts over the season, with a long of just eight yards. An undrafted rookie from LSU, he does have some room to grow, but his athletic profile offers little upside outside of potential goal line work. Perhaps he could be valuable in deep best-ball leagues (for potential multiple goal-line touchdown games), but that’s about it.
Charcandrick West (ADP: N/A)
West first played this season in week 15, and has carried the ball just twice in the time since. He is apparently the least desirable option in a stable of relatively mediocre backs, and will not be fantasy relevant for the foreseeable future.
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill (ADP: 13.2, WR5)
Quite predictably, Hill was the greatest benefactor of Mahomes’ emergence: The league’s most dangerous deep threat formed a strong connection with one of its strongest arms, almost immediately, and put up 1,479 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns along with 151 yards and an additional touchdown on the ground. Hill has established himself as a premier NFL receiver, and now, his quarterback’s game is perfectly suited to his own strengths.
There is some uncertainty to Hill’s value down the line. He will be entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2019, and the Chiefs will be hindered by their salary cap for each of the next two years — so a long-term stay in Kansas City isn’t a certainty. If I had to guess, I’d say they find a way to bring him back, given how much of the offense is predicated on his skills, but again, they’d have to navigate some hurdles to do so.
The good news for Hill’s value is that it should be relatively well-insulated regardless of where he may end up. His speed allows him to beat defenders no matter the system in which he’s playing. Furthermore, if another team were to spend big on him, they’d probably make good use of that speed. With such relatively reliable and strong production now and in the future, Hill is an exciting and comforting receiver to build a dynasty roster around.
Sammy Watkins (ADP: 66.0, WR32)
Watkins’s first year in Kansas City followed a similar arc to seasons past: In some weeks, he blew up in a crowded receiving corps while he fell off the map in others, all before having his season thrown off by injury. In aggregate, he averaged 11.5 PPR points per game — an understandably middling number, given his target competition. In the postseason, he came back with a couple important catches against the Colts in the divisional round.
That is a promising sign for Watkins heading into 2019. With a giant cap hit and no plausible way to be cut this off-season, he has a comfortable hold on a roster spot for next year, though he could be cut before the 2020 season (perhaps in order to help finance Hill’s new deal). Nonetheless, as long as Watkins is playing in the Kansas City offense (and healthy), he’ll probably run hot and cold from week to week.
Chris Conley (ADP: 188.0, WR75)
Conley put up a quiet 32 receptions for 334 yards and five touchdowns in 2018, spread almost uniformly throughout the season — he gained between 10 and 30 receiving yards in 11 of his 16 games. That sums up his 2018 role as a secondary receiver pretty well, where his job was to occasionally get himself open in spaces vacated by defenders who were busy covering the stars, and otherwise, just get out of the way. Conley will enter free agency this summer, and if Albert Wilson is any indication, teams with more cap space could talk themselves into handsomely outbidding the Chiefs for Conley’s services. He has looked fairly talented to me in passing over his four years in Kansas City, so he may be a nice buy-low candidate if given a bigger role in a new offense.
Kelvin Benjamin (ADP: 220.8, WR91)
Benjamin caught just two passes in three games for the Chiefs after being let go from the Buffalo Bills after week 13. After flaming out in Buffalo and dull-thudding in Kansas City, it seems like his days of fantasy prominence are behind him.
Demarcus Robinson (ADP: 239.2, WR121)
Meanwhile, Robinson has been a pet favorite of mine. He was taken in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, after falling due to off-field concerns. Thus, the Chiefs likely evaluated him as a day two-type talent on the field; thankfully, in his time since being drafted, he has mitigated the cause for concern off the field, too, and kept his head on straight.
Now, he operates in a role similar to Conley’s. In fact, his 2018 stats suggest that he might have been a better supporting receiver than Conley this past season, with just 46 fewer receiving yards on 19 fewer targets. Robinson will obviously never overtake Hill, nor will he overtake Watkins as long as Watkins is on the field. However, 2019 will be Robinson’s contract year, which means that he could be heading to greener pastures in the near future. Alternatively, if the Chiefs choose to move on from Conley, he’d be the immediate third receiver with nice upside should either Hill or Watkins depart soon after (which seems likely).
Robinson is not a must-have asset by any means, but for his price (read: nearly free), he’s a great deep-sleeping stash.
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce (ADP: 22.5, TE1)
Kelce is Kansas City’s third fantasy superstar. Following four consecutive seasons of superb production, Kelce set the NFL record for tight end receiving yards — before losing it to George Kittle roughly an hour later. Like Mahomes, the stars aligned almost perfectly for Kelce with Patrick Mahomes upgrading the quarterback position and allowing Tyreek Hill to take the tops off of defenses more, and Sammy Watkins taking defensive backs’ attention away even further.
It’s hard to see that changing in 2019, with each of the four coming back and another off-season of development ahead for Mahomes. There are a few tight ends that one could argue is the league’s most skilled; however, it’s hard to deny Kelce’s standing as the best dynasty tight end. He’s locked into a tremendous situation for the foreseeable future, has five consecutive years of excellent production and (perhaps most crucially) health to his name already.
Demetrius Harris (ADP: 221.5, TE29)
Kansas City’s secondary tight end hauled in just 12 of his 25 targets in 2018, an uninspiring number given how well the collective team moved the ball through the air. After three years of frustrating Chiefs fans with occasional flashes of strength and roughly as many disappointments while playing behind Kelce, Harris’s future is uncertain.
He will enter the 2019 off-season as a free agent, and as mentioned already, the Chiefs will have to spend as frugally as possible. Another team may talk itself into Harris as someone they can get more out of, as he has impressive physical traits (he apparently ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 6’5”, 237 lbs at his pro day) and grades out well in Pro Football Focus’s blocking ratings. I wouldn’t count on him turning into even an NFL starter by 2019, but he may be someone to keep an eye out for.
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