Tight Ends to Buy Right Now: Ricky Seals-Jones

Josh Brickner

The tight end position was a wasteland for fantasy points in 2017 as Travis Kelce (32) and Rob Gronkowski (36) were the only two to finish inside the top 50 in PPR scoring. Thus, dynasty owners are faced with a choice; spend a high startup pick/valuable trade assets on a stud or search for value deeper at the position. Those opting for the latter will find this series of articles helpful in identifying those hidden gems at the tight end position.

Ricky Seals-Jones has been a trendy sleeper pick of the dynasty community all off-season after impressing in limited snaps during the 2017 season. Yet, an unfortunate mistake in a downtown Scottsdale hotel lobby will scare away the novice dynasty owners and presents a tremendous buying opportunity for the rest of us.

Collegiate Career

screen shot 2018 08 11 at 21.08.00

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

A five-star recruit coming out of Sealy High School in Texas, Seals-Jones underwhelmed during his Texas A&M tenure at wide receiver. An injury barely two games into his first year caused the 2013 season to be a lost one. ‘RSJ’ then put up average, unspectacular numbers during the 2014 and 2015 campaigns. Finally, in 2016, the stage was set for him to breakout when a leg injury limited him to nine games and his lowest statistical output of the last three seasons.

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2017 NFL Draft Process

In 2017, the Aggie wide receiver decided to forgo his senior season in College Station and entered the draft as an early entrant. Unfortunately, a slow pro day 40-yard dash time (4.69 seconds) combined with pedestrian collegiate stats caused him to go undrafted. He was signed as an UDFA by the Arizona Cardinals to play tight end shortly after the draft. The position switch was not just due to RSJ’s 6-5, 243-pound frame, but also due to the fact his 4.69 forty time (a huge negative to his NFL wide receiver prospects) ranks in the 72nd percentile for tight ends.

2017 Season

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MQr9ZhTvbg

The undrafted tight end was a ghost through the Cardinals’ first eight contests of the 2017 season, registering only a single target on his lone offensive snap. That all changed in a week ten game against Houston when RSJ converted his five targets into three receptions, 54 yards, and a pair of touchdowns.

Over the next two weeks, Seals-Jones caught six passes for 116 yards and another score. The dynasty community was abuzz as the Texas A&M product looked the part of the next breakout star at tight end, producing a 9-170-3 three-week stat-line despite playing just over 20% of the offensive snaps. Unfortunately, he only managed a pedestrian three catches for 31 yards over the last four games of the season.

Seals-Jones only played 11.86% of the offensive snaps during the 2017 campaign, likely due to his shortcomings and inexperience as a run blocker from the tight end position. The good news? Early reports of the second year tight end out of OTAs and minicamp in this area have been encouraging. This should help Seals-Jones be on the field (read: increased fantasy opportunities) for more of the offensive snaps not only this season but in the future.

Short and Long-Term Outlook

The key to success in fantasy football is to not only have the talent to thrive, but also the opportunity to do so. In 2017, we got a passing glimpse of Seals-Jones’ athletic prowess in limited playing time. Now, the tight end finds himself in a golden opportunity to produce solid fantasy numbers in Arizona, not only this season but for the foreseeable future.

Lack of Competition at TE

The path to consistent snaps for RSJ in 2018 and beyond could not look better. Arizona hasn’t brought in another starting-caliber tight end in the draft or free agency after 2017 starter Jermaine Gresham tore his ACL in week 17 and the departure of Troy Niklas in the off-season. Gresham begins training camp on the PUP list and his exact return date is unknown. Even upon his return, the generous former Bengal will take some time to return to 100%. If Seals-Jones has a strong start to the 2018 season, the job will be his to lose even after Gresham is fully healed.

The two players – Gabe Holmes and Bryce Williams – behind the converted wide receiver on the depth chart offer zero competition for playing time. Holmes has only played 12 NFL offensive snaps in two games (both for Arizona in 2017) with no statistical production since entering the league in 2015. Williams has never been active for an NFL game after having nothing more than a cup of coffee with five different teams since 2016.

Targets Up for Grabs in the Desert

John Brown, Jaron Brown, Andre Ellington, and Troy Niklas departed Arizona this off-season and took a combined 197 targets, 96 receptions, and 1,205 receiving yards with them. The Cardinals, outside of Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, suddenly find themselves devoid of proven receiving options on their roster. Behind Fitzgerald at the WR position, second-round draft pick Christian Kirk leads the group of J.J. Nelson, Brice Butler, and Chad Williams whom all have a COMBINED 21 NFL career starts.

Yes, the organization spent significant draft capital on Kirk – RSJ’s former Texas A&M teammate – to be the heir apparent to Larry Fitzgerald. Yet, most rookie wide receivers take at least a year or two to develop into a consistent, weekly go-to WR1. By the time Kirk completes his on the job training, it will be time for Fitz to retire. Thus, it’s entirely plausible for Seals-Jones to become the third option in the Arizona passing game for not only this season but the next two-three years.

Mike McCoy

The hiring of Mike McCoy as offensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals was a boon to Seals-Jones’ dynasty outlook. In McCoy’s three seasons as the primary play-caller in San Diego (the 2014, 2015, and 2017 seasons), his starting tight end averaged 82 targets (15 in the RZ), 57 receptions, 677 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns per season. Yes, future Hall of Fame inductee Antonio Gates was McCoy’s TE1 during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Yet, it doesn’t take a gold jacket to have fantasy success in McCoy’s offense. Including two seasons in Denver as OC, his entire tight-end units have finished seventh or better in team positional PPR fantasy points in three seasons. Look for the big-bodied RSJ to flourish in McCoy’s scheme getting plenty of opportunities all over the field; particularly in the red zone.

An Unfortunate Incident

If Seals-Jones was criminally undervalued all off-season, his legal troubles stemming from a July 18th incident have further depressed his value. I’m sure you’ve heard the story by now: Ricky was intoxicated, had already broken the Seals-Jones (Nope! Too easy and corny of a joke) had to relieve himself, and got physical with the hotel staff when they denied him admittance to the restroom. The tight end was arrested on suspicion of assault, disorderly conduct/disruptive behavior, and criminal trespassing. It does not appear the Arizona Cardinals organization will hand down their own punishment as Seals-Jones’ infraction pales in comparison to the actions of GM Steve Keim. The legal process will need to run its course, but don’t expect RSJ to miss more than two games this upcoming season.

Dynasty ADP/Trade Value

According to DLF’s July Startup Dynasty ADP, Ricky Seals-Jones is being drafted, on average, as the 21st tight end off the board and 172nd overall pick. The Arizona Cardinal is being selected right after (Mr. Glass) Tyler Eifert and Dallas Goedert. Eifert is bound to miss more games being injured than RSJ’s potential suspension and, while Goedert offers tremendous future upside, his path to immediate fantasy relevancy is murky at best being stuck behind Zach Ertz on the Eagles depth chart.

Since his July 18th arrest, smart and savvy dynasty owners have been acquiring Seals-Jones for bargain bin prices where available. According to the trade finder on DLF, he has been acquired on the low-end for a 2019 fifth Round pick, a 2020 third round pick, or Baltimore rookie tight end Hayden Hurst. Of course, the Cardinal’s price will be determined by both the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of his owner.

In the DLF Staff League, I just sent over an offer of Nick Vannett and a 2019 fourth that is likely to get rejected before I’m done writing this sentence (Kyle Holden was indeed too smart and Mutombo’d my proposal right away). If/when Seals-Jones is suspended for a game or two, immediately reach out to his owner in your dynasty league. You may be able to pry away the second-year tight end for pennies on the dollar from a panicky owner.

Conclusion

While a potential two-game suspension is not the ideal situation for a dynasty asset, an owner who has even marginal depth at the tight end position should be able to withstand that scenario. It should be noted, Ricky Seals-Jones should not be counted on as anything more than a TE2 with upside heading into the 2018 season. Success, or even consistent playing time, is not guaranteed for Seals-Jones (or any player for that matter). Still, he’s the type of high risk/high reward, buy low acquisition that could pay huge dividends for those brave enough to take a chance.

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josh brickner
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