The 2018 Dynasty All-Hype Team
Last year, I put metaphorical pen to paper and listed who I considered to be some of the most alarmingly overpriced assets in dynasty football. What was my rationale for doing so? I’ll let my former self explain:
“I’ve spoken in the past about the concept of fantasy value versus dynasty value. The former is fairly straightforward – players that score more points have more fantasy value, regardless of any extraneous factor (i.e. age). The latter is essentially ‘user based,’ with the value being determined in a more artificial sense. In other words, if the vast majority of owners rate a player highly, that’s what he’s worth, regardless of what he’s done between the white lines.
Now, of course, there are numerous examples of players who possess both types of value. Young studs have the best of both worlds – they’re winning you games right now with their play, while owners simultaneously fantasize about the same thing happening for years to come. Even older ‘veterans’ at the apex of their game, a la Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown, remain highly regarded. Once you hit a certain, age-related point, however, there’s nowhere to go but down (Larry Fitzgerald says hi!) and that’s fine, because these players are still scoring you points and doing so at a discount. They may have dwindling dynasty value, but they’re producing where it matters, rendering them as a very useful and cost-effective class of players.
But it’s the opposite of this scenario that confounds me the most. I’m talking about the players who have done little to nothing on the field, yet are still thought of a lot more highly than their productive counterparts. I’m talking about the Dynasty All-Hype Team.”
While injury-aided, last year’s hit rate was quite good (apologies to Marvin Jones, however), prompting me to recreate this piece for the 2018 season (better late than never, eh?). As such, listed below are players who, according to the most recent July ADP, still carry quite a bit of value in the minds of dynasty owners, regardless of their proven track records of NFL production. I’ll provide a brief synopsis of each, along with listing some players I’d rather own at the price points.
Before perusing the below, please also note the following two caveats:
- This list is limited to players in the top 100 of the dynasty ADP, as these are the players who are costing significant dynasty capital.
- I’ll only be including players who have played at least two seasons in the league. I’m well aware how talented freshmen are valued, and it’s no surprise if they don’t produce early on, and subsequently, no surprise if they don’t fall down the ADP ladder (Joe Mixon says hi!).
With that in hand, let’s reveal our 2018 overrated all-stars!
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Amari Cooper, WR OAK (ADP = 23.7, WR12)
To be clear, I believe Cooper’s a decent-to-good player, but certainly not one I’d invest capital on in the second round of a startup draft. I’d probably enjoy having him as my WR3 in the fifth or sixth round, meaning that in real life I’ll never acquire his services. This has been a fairly standard viewpoint for me, and anyone who’s followed my work over the past few years here at DLF shouldn’t be surprised by his inclusion here. Consider my history of maligning the young Raiders pass-catcher below:
In the 2016 Receiver Wrap-Up, I highlighted him as a “sell” candidate, citing lack of efficiency as the main bugaboo. This was again highlighted in last October’s Dynasty Purgatory article, where it was shown that through that point in his career, Cooper had functioned as a weekly WR5+ more often than a WR1, and a WR4/5 more often than the aggregate of finishes as a WR1/2/3. To date, Cooper’s best trait has been an accumulation of yards at a greater clip than his Raiders peers, but he hasn’t stood out in any other facet.
Last year Cooper couldn’t even accomplish that, stumbling his way to a mere 680 yards across 14 contests, while catching exactly half of his 96 targets en route to a dismal 7.08 yards per target. Incredibly, a whopping 44.0 of his 158.0 PPR points (27.8%) came in a single game, while he bottomed out under 35 receiving yards eight times. Not great.
We know that volume is king in the wide receiver world, and if Cooper can return to the days of 130 targets he should provide serviceable numbers. It’s not guaranteed, of course, as the Raiders brought in both Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant in the off-season, with tight end Jared Cook returning as well. As Cooper could never surpass Michael Crabtree for volume, it’s certainly fair to posit his target share is equally as likely to drop as it is to rise, despite Jon Gruden’s off-season puffery.
All told, Cooper encapsulates the premise of this article perfectly. He’s put forward some decent numbers, but his fantasy value has never really approached his dynasty value, and he’s still somehow being drafted as a WR1. I’m sure his story is far from being told, and youth is certainly on his side. Objective evidence, however, is not.
I’d rather have: He’s the WR12 according to the dynasty ADP as compared to my 27th-ranked dynasty receiver, so you can do the math here.
Allen Robinson (ADP = 25.3, WR12)
While this list’s initial member could have me branded as a “hater,” Robinson’s inclusion is the polar opposite. As a Penn State fan through and through, I can still remember A-Rob’s numerous big plays, even memorializing his ascent-to-the-heavens catch against Michigan as my Twitter avatar for damn near half the account’s existence. There’s no haterade being passed around over here.
Unfortunately, it’s objectively reasonable to point out that the young man hasn’t been a viable fantasy asset since his breakout sophomore season back in 2015. To be sure, with a line of 80-1,400-14, he was truly elite, finishing the year as the PPR WR6 and dwarfing anything Cooper has done to date (sorry, had to get one last potshot in!). But with only two fewer targets in 2016, he was a shadow of his former self, securing seven fewer receptions, 500 fewer yards, and eight fewer scores, while also showing diminished playmaking ability with a loss of over 5.0 YPR. Of course, A-Rob then went on to miss the 2017 season with a torn ACL, and subsequently signed with Chicago several months back.
As such, a standing as the ADP WR13 reeks of subjectivity. Robinson has one great season to his name and not even a single other “good” one, and now must familiarize himself with a new coaching staff, quarterback, and playbook. Yes, Mitch Trubisky may be better than Blake Bortles and yes, Matt Nagy may wind up being this year’s Sean McVay, but this is nothing more than conjecture at this point. The Bears also brought in Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton (more on him later) as competition, drafted Anthony Miller in the second round, and still need to figure out what they have in former first-round pick Kevin White. Robinson may indeed prove to be the best of the bunch and return current value, but it’s far from a sure thing.
I’d rather have: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR14), Adam Thielen (WR16), Doug Baldwin (WR17), and T.Y. Hilton (WR18).
Jerick McKinnon, RB SF (ADP = 30.8, RB15)
McKinnon was decent in 2017, taking over for an injured Dalvin Cook and compiling nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards, including 51 receptions. The latter portion has always been a standout feature of the fifth-year ball carrier’s game, with 142 receptions across his previous four years, despite largely functioning as a lightly-used backup for the first two. It was enough for him to sign a relatively lucrative off-season contract with the 49ers, ostensibly placing him first in the running back pecking order.
But does this mean McKinnon will suddenly become a bell-cow? It’s prudent to note, after all, that he certainly doesn’t have a history of doing so. He was a quarterback in college and hasn’t yet achieved more than 159 carries in a single NFL season. The Vikings’ coaches preferred to give the rock to Latavius Murry after Cook went down, with McKinnon only achieving double-digit carries eight times, and never more than 16. And while the first two of those contests went swimmingly, the last six all resulted in weekly averages under 4.0 YPC.
This doesn’t mean McKinnon isn’t up to the task. It simply means we don’t have the evidence, despite four years in the league, to prove that he can 1) handle a feature back workload, and 2) that he’ll remain efficient doing so. His numbers to date actually seem to say the opposite. Everyone wants the next Mike Shanahan running back, but the middle of the third round is too pricey for me.
I’d rather have: Jordan Howard (RB17), Derrick Henry (RB21), LeSean McCoy (RB23), and probably some of the rookies.
Jay Ajayi, RB PHI (ADP = 65.3, RB28)
In 2016, as a Miami Dolphin Ajayi beasted to a line of 260-1,272-8, while also corralling 27 of 34 targets for an additional 151 yards. In doing so he had a whopping three 200-yards games, along with an additional 100-yard performance to boot. The rest of the time, however? Not so great.
Therein lies the problem. It’s my belief everyone is remembering Ajayi for that glorious quarter of a season two years ago, and ignoring all other empirical evidence. That same year Ajayi had nine games of 61 yards or fewer, failing to secure a 20-yard run in any of them. He was also held to 4.0 YPC or below in seven of 16 contests.
2017 saw more of the same, as prior to a midseason trade to Philadelphia he had two games of 120+ yards, but five others with 77 or fewer. This included the following lines: 11-16-0, 12-46-0, 25-77-0, 23-51-0, and 13-23-0. He fared better as an Eagle, and began to achieve a larger workload through the playoffs and Super Bowl.
Gone is LeGarrette Blount from that Philly squad, but returning are Corey Clement and Darren Sproles. The former looked good as a UDFA rookie, and the latter is one of the best, if not the best satellite back of all time. It’s far from a certainty that Ajayi will claim the lion’s share of the workload, especially on a team with a predilection towards RBBC.
Within the running back hierarchy, Ajayi’s placement isn’t unreasonable as a high-end RB3. But the early sixth round just feels too early for me to pull the trigger, and I remain nervous that his singular data points of excellence are overshadowing a larger trend of mediocrity. I’ll choose to look elsewhere for the price.
I’d rather have: Tarik Cohen (RB29), Dion Lewis (RB30), Mark Ingram (RB31), Duke Johnson (RB35), Isaiah Crowell (RB37).
DeVante Parker, WR MIA (ADP = 68.8, WR31)
Hey, I tried to keep the faith.
Last year I stood on the other side of this fence, having believed Parker was getting the short end of the stick. The reasons were fairly straightforward: he clearly improved between years one and two, and appeared to be on an ascending offense. Unfortunately, the third-year breakout never happened, with Parker showing diminished playmaking ability and somehow scoring even fewer touchdowns than the previous year.
And yet somehow, some way, the man who was the dynasty WR32 at this point last year is now…..the WR31? Indeed, after losing value despite improved numbers between rookie and sophomore seasons, Parker has now gained value after failing to break out in year three. Did the entire dynasty community lose their collective minds?
The explanation is actually far simpler, and boils down to one thing and one thing only – the departure of target vacuum Jarvis Landry. With 567 looks across four years, the Miami passing offense was clearly centered around the newly minted Cleveland Brown, and it stands to reason someone will step up and fill the void. Perhaps it will be Parker. Perhaps, and more likely so, it will be the more efficient Kenny Stills, and a combination of the recently added Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki. Time will tell, but Parker has decidedly done nothing of his own volition for us to believe he’ll seize the opportunity.
I’d rather have: A decent-sized chunk of the players behind him.
Trey Burton, TE CHI (ADP = 82.6, TE6)
63-629-6. That’s good for 161.9 PPR points, which would’ve checked in as last season’s PPR TE8. Clearly very solid numbers from a seasonal standpoint, but not so much if that’s your career to date through your first NFL contract.
Enter Trey Burton.
Burton is the man who lays claim to the paltry output above, which has somehow resulted in him rocketing up the ADP hierarchy to a resting spot as the sixth tight end off the board in startup drafts. This is the type of hype typically reserved for highly drafted rookies and ascending sophomores, and yet the most valued 2018 freshman tight end in Gesicki is 40 spots back, and last year’s first rounder O.J. Howard sees himself a round behind as well. Simply by switching teams and unlocking his theoretical starting potential, Burton has become a dynasty demigod at the position.
It’s true that Burton acquitted himself well when forced to step in for an injured Zach Ertz, and it’s also true he possesses above average speed for the position. But I spoke about the players deserving of targets when discussing Robinson above, and it was only last year the Bears spent a second-round pick on fellow tight end Adam Shaheen. In 2018 Burton may very well struggle to replicate his career stats to date, and if so will find himself as one of the most over-drafted dynasty assets in the game today.
I’d rather own: Burton is my dynasty TE12, so you can basically copy and paste the ADP TE7-TE11 list here, and add Delanie Walker to boot.
So, which players do you think deserve inclusion on the Dynasty All-Hype Team?
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