Underdog Quarterback: Case Keenum

Posted on July 29, 2018

The band Spoon once said, “You got no fear of the underdog, and that’s why you will not survive”. This is a lesson that applies to fantasy football too. We need to challenge our perception of players to see if there are values out there among players who aren’t in the spotlight. Everyone knows that I’m a shill for Blake Bortles, but I’d like to introduce you to my next tout, Case Keenum.

You may have heard the news, but Keenum was signed to a two-year deal with the Broncos this off-season. A good portion of that money is guaranteed, and the Broncos would have a significant cap hit if they tried to move on from him after this season. That means for all intents and purposes, Keenum is going to be the starter of the Broncos for the next two seasons unless something goes horribly wrong.

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If you’re a Broncos fan, you may have read that horribly wrong part and thought, “it already has. They signed Case Keenum. He’s coming off a career year. He’s no longer attached to the quarterback whisperer Pat Shurmur.”

Both of those things are legitimate concerns. It’s not often that a quarterback has his best season at age 29 and goes on to have a career of fantasy relevance. We have also seen what an impact coaching can have on quarterbacks in recent years, whether that was Jeff Fisher making Jared Goff look like a bust, or Kyle Shanahan making Matt Ryan finally live up to the “Matty Ice” moniker.

Let’s start there. The offensive coordinator for this season is Bill Musgrave, and the quarterbacks coach is Mike Sullivan. Do they have a long history of supporting fantasy-relevant quarterbacks?

Last season, Bill Musgrave took over midway through the season for Mike McCoy. As a result, I’m not sure it’s exactly fair to blame him for Trevor Siemian finishing as the 30th-best quarterback for fantasy purposes. In the two seasons prior, he did help Derek Carr finish 13th and 14th. Mike Sullivan, for his part, has worked with Eli Manning the last two seasons, and despite the fact that Eli is the butt of almost every joke, he managed to finish as a low-end QB2 both seasons. Not quite QB1-type numbers, but certainly encouraging when you consider that Case Keenum is ranked 32nd among quarterbacks by DLF rankers.

What about the idea that Keenum is moving on from the more talented Vikings receiver group of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph to the lesser Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Royce Freeman? I mean, everyone knows that Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders belong on segues not on the football field, right?

Would it change your mind at all if I told you that Demaryius Thomas managed to put up an 83-949-5 line with a combination of Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch throwing him the ball? That was down from his career average, but I’m not sure at least for the next two years that he isn’t comparable to Thielen. In fact, prior to this past season, Thomas had a streak of five seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Is Emmanuel Sanders going to be Stefon Diggs? No. You do need to keep in mind the quarterbacks he was catching passes from seemed to come from the Jay Cutler school of “not really wanting to do a lot of work right now.” Additionally, he was dealing with an ankle injury that hampered him throughout the season. Every season before this previous season on the Broncos, he managed at least 1,000 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

The one player Keenum may sorely miss from the Vikings would be Kyle Rudolph. Despite people laughing at Rudolph’s claim that he was the best tight end back in 2014, he’s been an incredibly consistent presence for the Vikings. It’s hard to argue that he hasn’t turned himself into one of the top tight ends (though certainly not THE top) and that means his production will be hard to replicate. Jake Butt was considered an elite prospect coming out of college, but I wouldn’t count on him replicating Rudolph’s numbers.

So, we can maybe expect a dip in Keenum’s production? It seems likely. However, did you know that Case Keenum ranked 13th in points per game among quarterbacks who started at least eight games last season? What about that over his last 24 starts where’s he attempted at least ten passes, he has finished the game as a fantasy QB2 or better 66.6% of the time. If you change that to QB1, it drops to 41.6% of the time but that’s still very impressive for a quarterback being selected as late as he is. Additionally, it’s important to keep in mind because nine of those 24 starts came when he was still with the Rams and not having a “career year”.

At this point, I may have convinced you that Keenum is worth his QB27 price for this season. That’s well and good, but this is dynasty! As we mentioned earlier, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are on the older side of things. Surely the Broncos don’t have a plan in place to replace their production, right?

Keenum may have been my biggest winner of the 2018 NFL draft. Not only did the Broncos not draft any competition for him, but they added Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman, and DaeSean Hamilton to the fold. For those not familiar, this is the same Courtland Sutton who is coming off back to back seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards and ten touchdowns for the SMU Mustangs. He was considered one of the prize jewels at wide receiver in the class, and it’s not surprising that the Broncos took him as the third receiver off the board.

Hamilton doesn’t quite come with the renown that Sutton has, but he was a fourth-round pick in the NFL draft. Freeman broke multiple records in the Pac-12, and in my opinion, has the potential to be a three-down back. That would take some pressure off Keenum and give him another weapon to use in the passing game. In short, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos move on from one of Thomas or Sanders after this season, but they’re doing what they can to prepare themselves.

For those still doubting that Case Keenum can be the Broncos starter for a few years, let’s not forget that he holds two important records in college football. He is the all-time division one passing leader and passing touchdown leader. He rarely got the opportunity to show what he could do starting his career as an undrafted quarterback, and when he did start he was often thrust into not ideal situations. How sure we are that last year was a “career” year and not just Keenum showing what he’s capable of under the right circumstances?

I’ve made my bets on Keenum’s talent and situation. In one superflex league, I traded Philip Rivers for him and a 2019 first. I’d make that trade every day because I fully believe that he will put up mid-range QB2 numbers for the next two seasons at least. At his end of the ninth round 2QB/SF ADP, he makes the perfect late round quarterback target. Unlike the subject of the Spoon song, you should have time for this messenger, and start having regard for Case Keenum before it’s too late.

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