2018 Summer Sleeper: Jacksonville Jaguars

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Including the playoffs, the Jacksonville Jaguars won 12 games in 2017 – more victories than they claimed in the previous three seasons combined. They came within minutes of their first ever Super Bowl appearance, nearly completing a truly remarkable turnaround. Much of this was due to a suffocating defense that ranked second in the league in both yards and points allowed, but there was also an additional paradigm shift resulting in a renewed dedication to the running game.

Following a rookie season where he didn’t start until the fourth game, quarterback Blake Bortles proceeded to attempt 606 and 625 passes in 2015 and 2016, respectively. That number was reduced by over 100 last year, as the former UCF Knight was minimized into more of a game manager-role.

Rookie running back and first round pick Leonard Fournette put his stamp on the offense, with a whopping 268 attempts in only 13 games (20.6 APG). This was more than double the workload T.J. Yeldon achieved in 2016, and the first time a Jaguar ball carrier eclipsed 200 carries dating back to the days of Maurice Jones-Drew.

Incredibly, there were still scraps left to be picked up, as, in an act of symmetry, Jacksonville had exactly as many rushing attempts as they had passing attempts (527). Chris Ivory picked up 112 carries of his own, and Yeldon chipped in an additional 49. Even Bortles got in on the act, with 57 scrambles to his name.

An additional 30 carries, along with some splashy playoff receptions, went to the ball carrier mentioned below, who doubles as the Jaguars’ 2018 Summer Sleeper.

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Corey Grant, RB

Category: Super Deep Sleeper

Grant (hey, second one in two days!) fits the Super Deep Sleeper category to the letter. According to the July ADP (which utilizes a 12-team league system) Grant was only chosen in two of six mock drafts, as the 206th and 232nd selection. However, for reasons I’ll detail below, he remains someone worth “keeping an eye on.”

For starters, Jacksonville put their money where their mouth is. In a series of two successive moves, they released Ivory, and then signed Grant to a second-round tender worth $2.9 million. For a player buried on the depth chart with only 38 touches last season (regular season and postseason combined), that amount of money is a thing unheard of.

Secondly, and as mentioned in the preamble of this article, the Jaguars are now a run-first team (insomuch as a modern-day team can do so). Fournette is clearly the centerpiece of the run game, but his rookie-year pace would result in a 330-carry season. It’s not an impossible workload, but certainly an improbable one, as only three running backs in the last three years eclipsed 300 attempts.

At the minimum, he will need to be spelled, and Ivory (and his 112 rushing attempts in 2017) is no longer around to do it. Yeldon hasn’t been trusted by the current staff as much more than a glorified third-down back, only receiving double-digit carries in four games over the last two seasons. This could open up opportunities for Grant, coinciding with Jacksonville’s financial stake in him.

Continuing with the former LSU Tiger, Fournette hasn’t exactly been the bastion of health, even dating back to college. He only played seven games in his junior season, famously sitting out his team’s bowl game, missing time with an ankle injury. He then missed the majority of the 2017 NFL preseason with a foot injury, and another game in October with an ankle injury. Some may equate this to more noise than signal, but I tend to take notice when recurring (-ish) injuries happen in the same anatomical region, specifically to the same foot and ankle.

If Fournette were to miss time again, it’s an open question as to whether it would be Yeldon or Grant who would be the next man up. The most recent assertion, courtesy of First Coast News, suggests that Yeldon is the “clear cut” backup, due largely to his pass blocking. He’s also 20 pounds heavier than Grant, and has more of a history of lead back work, in both college and the NFL.

However, previously in the year the Florida Times Union stated Grant would be more involved in the offense, and more recently offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett reiterated exactly that. It would be pure guesswork at this time, but if one player emerges over the other he could yield weekly PPR RB2 value, and if they split time it still might be enough for FLEX consideration.

To that point, in a limited sample size, Grant has been outstanding. Over 70 regular season and postseason carries he’s averaged just a hair under 6.0 YPC, to go with 12.3 YPR across 12 receptions. He converted 24.3% of his carries into first downs, to go with 58.3% of his receptions. He’s also only fumbled once across these touches. Similarly, in college he averaged a robust 7.7 YPC as well.

Unfortunately, sample size remains the problem. Between college and the pros, Grant has only been able to accrue a minimalist 231 touches. That’s great usage for prolonging the life of a tire, but not so much for a soon to be fourth year veteran. One of the most dangerous things we fantasy aficionados can do is extrapolate a small sample size into a larger one, and assume a player will hold up to the rigors and that the efficiency will remain the same. With Grant, we can’t do anything more than hope for that.

Circling back to the beginning, this is why Grant is a Super Deep Sleeper. He’s a likely third on the depth chart behind one of the league’s few true workhorse running backs, with another former second round pick likely ahead of him also. He’s provided some splashy plays, but doesn’t have a sustained track record of success. However, there’s enough here – both observed, and abstract – to provide enough reason for hope, and for owners to keep him on their radar.

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