I guess this is why we call it the off-season. Most rookie drafts are now complete, and we’re still a few months away from week one. What better way to pass the time than to make some trades? In this month’s buys and sells, we have some of the biggest names in our game. Even if you don’t want to pull the trigger on any of these players, I hope I can give you some food for thought as you analyze the state of your rosters.
So get your thinking caps on. It’s time for Five I’m Buying, Five I’m Selling!
Buys
Dak Prescott, QB DAL | Dynasty Ranking: 106 | Age: 24
I do not advocate Dak Prescott’s 2018 value. The wide receivers and tight ends he’ll be working with this fall are pretty dreadful. But situations change, and whether it’s next year or the year after, Jerry Jones will get Prescott some talent. And when that happens, we have to think he’ll be able to put up similar numbers to those of 2016 and 2017, which were both QB1 seasons. Buy Prescott when he’s cheap. In a few years, you’ll reap the rewards.
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Tevin Coleman, RB ATL | Dynasty Ranking: 62 | Age: 25
Tevin Coleman will be the Jerick McKinnon of the 2019 off-season. McKinnon was a four-year backup in Minnesota, who in the spring after his rookie contract expired, signed a big-time deal with the 49ers, and saw his dynasty value skyrocket. Ignore the teams, and Coleman’s story will read much the same. With McKinnon, we’re a bit worried about his production thus far. We don’t have that concern with Coleman. The talent is already there. The opportunity is just a year away.
Alex Collins, RB BAL | Dynasty Ranking: 89 | Age: 23
Let’s just break this down. Alex Collins is 23 years old, is coming off a near 1,000-yard campaign, and is still the unquestioned leader in the Ravens’ backfield. I get that he’s not much of a receiver, but valued at 89, I’m buying him all day long. Collins was a low-end RB2 in 2017. Even if he can’t quite keep up that level of production going forward, he’s a young piece at running back who any owner would love to have.
Pierre Garcon, WR SF | Dynasty Ranking: 119 | Age: 31
Pierre Garcon was a 1,000-yard receiver just two years ago. If his 2017 wouldn’t have got cut short, he very well could have reached quadruple digits for the third time in five years. Now that he’s with Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s to say he can’t do it again? I understand if his age at 31 isn’t all that inspiring. But if you can get three or four more years of him as a WR2/3, that’s worth much more than what you’re paying for him. Garcon is quietly slipping through the cracks. Any contending team would greatly benefit from a producer like him.
O.J. Howard, TE TB | Dynasty Ranking: 83 | Age: 23
The Buccaneers have a lot of issues right now. With Jameis Winston‘s three-game suspension, their 2018 season is already in jeopardy. But not all is bad in Tampa Bay. O.J. Howard netted a somewhat surprising TE2 finish as a rookie and looks to have many TE1 years in his future. The 2017 first rounder has already established himself as a legitimate weapon in the red zone, as he finished last year with five touchdowns over the final eight games. Look for Howard to develop into an absolute force as his yardage and receptions only increase as he matures.
Sells
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF | Dynasty Ranking: 77 | Age: 26
Extrapolate Jimmy Garoppolo’s seven starts to an entire season, and he ends up with 274 points, which would place him as the QB7 a year ago. Impressive? Absolutely, but that’s nothing ground-breaking. With his severely limited experience, we’d want or even expect him to be a kid in his low 20s, much like Deshaun Watson is. But the fact of the matter is, Jimmy G will turn 27 before the season is over. Are you willing to pay top-80 value for a 26-year-old who still hasn’t definitively proven he’s a high-end fantasy QB? I know I’m not.
Drew Brees, QB NO | Dynasty Ranking: 133 | Age: 39
They don’t come any more solid than Drew Brees. Let’s just run through some of his outrageous career accomplishments. Seven times he’s led the NFL in passing yardage, and four times he’s led the NFL in passing touchdowns. Since 2008, he’s got just as many offensive player of the year awards as missed games (two). That’s about as good a resumé as you’ll find.
So after all that hype, why is he a sell? Age gets to everyone, even players like Brees. His 2017 QB9 finish snapped a very long string of top-five years. Truthfully, I don’t think he ever makes it back. So when he’s being ranked above the likes of Mitchell Trubisky, Derek Carr, and Josh Rosen, I think it’s time to trade him in.
Chris Thompson, RB WAS | Dynasty Ranking: 93 | Age: 27
Chris Thompson was well on his way to one heck of a season before fracturing his fibula. Take his pace through 11 games to a full 16, and he would have finished with 1,280 yards from scrimmage and just under ten total touchdowns. There’s no doubting his talent, but the circumstances have changed in Washington, and they’ve changed mightily. This is Derrius Guice’s backfield now. Thompson should still see significant third-down work, but I’m afraid his touches as a whole are only going to go down as Guice takes over more and more.
DeVante Parker, WR MIA | Dynasty Ranking: 72 | Age: 25
Let’s face it. DeVante Parker hasn’t shown us much of anything. It’s now been three seasons and his career high in yards is 744, and high in touchdowns is four. Yet, his value is still above receivers like Devin Funchess and Calvin Ridley. I’m encouraging owners to sell the other four players on this list. With Parker, I’m not encouraging you to sell, I’m imploring you. The production just doesn’t match the rank. It’s as simple as that.
Zach Ertz, TE PHI | Dynasty Ranking: 35 | Age: 27
I rode Zach Ertz all the way to the championship in a redraft league a year ago. This man was a beast all season. As a big believer in Ertz, even I think his rank of 35 is a little high. Let’s start with his touchdown output. The sixth-year Eagle doubled his previous career high in TDs with eight last year. Will he repeat that in 2018 and beyond? It’s possible, but not exactly probable.
Trey Burton is gone, but Dallas Goedert has arrived. I can’t help but think a talent like his will end up diminishing Ertz’ long-term value. It might not be in 2018 or 2019, but Goedert will undoubtedly start eating into his snaps as he ages. Everyone wants to sell high, and buy low. Here’s your chance to do the former.
Have a question about your team, a player, or a potential trade? Please leave a comment below. I’m always glad to interact with readers. If you have a more specific and in-depth question that you want to talk more about, just shoot me an email at [email protected] . I Hope you enjoyed the article!
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- Standard Dynasty Rankings October 2018 - October 22, 2018
- Dynasty Strategy for the 2018 Season - September 1, 2018
- Five I’m Buying, Five I’m Selling: August Edition - August 11, 2018
What would Jimmy Grapes be worth in future picks if I were move him in a superflex? Him, Jameis and dalton is all I got though …
Hmm traded Ertz for hunter Henry over the summer. Had an injury clause though 🙂
So your trading Ertz because in 3 years Goedert will cut into his snaps. Thats bizarre.
How do you see a regression in touchdowns? Last year was second year with Wentz and coaching along with upgrade in wide receiver core
I want no part of Dak, experts always preach low values for QBs, don’t see the value in waiting three years for production I do not believe will ever come
Dak is value incarnate. Dude was QB6 as a rookie and was QB1 through the first half of his sophomore year. He has 1.5 years of stud fantasy QB play and half a season of terrible fantasy QB play and people have him ranked behind guys like Mariota and Winston who have nothing but an entire career full of poor fantasy QB play.
I just want to say, I enjoy your articles Bradley. And it’s good to see you respond to most posts!
The problem with comparing Coleman to McKinnon is that McKinnon’s value boosted primarily because of his landing spot. He was not considered by most FFers to be the top FA RB of 2018, he was just the one that landed in the best spot.
I agree Coleman will be a hot commodity heading into FA next year, but calling him the next McKinnon assumes we can predict where he will land, which we certainly can’t. It’s equally as likely that he ends up being the next Carlos Hyde and lands in a crowded backfield on a bad team while some other less talented FA RB lands in a great spot and becomes the hot FF commodity like McKinnon did.
I understand why you’re bashing Parker and I’m in the same boat with him, trying to use him as a value play. I hate Tannehill and the offense, but then I went over his numbers and he puts up some good games when he’s fully healthy.
I got him for 2 2nds this year and I’ve been offered a top five 2020 first for him recently in an 18 team league. My issue is do I hold him and hope he comes out strong or make the move for the pick right now?
