Can Brandon Marshall Take Flight in Seattle?
The Seattle Seahawks have signed someone who might just push special teams player Tanner McEvoy off the roster completely, while simultaneously filling the void left by “Big Mike Williams” and Chris Matthews. Seattle is hopeful that wide receiver Brandon Marshall will make an impact, despite his age and recent decline.
Prior to trading their first overall pick in 2015, there were rumblings that the team coveted ‘Size-Speed’ athlete Dorial Green-Beckham. By bringing Marshall into the wide receiver room, the Seahawks have added experience and size to a group that appeared to be lacking in that particular combination. A blend of size and experience is is what Carroll wants, and it’s no secret that the head coach covets a big-bodied wide receiver.
Opportunity
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
With Jimmy Graham departing to the Packers and Paul Richardson heading to Washington, the Seahawks have a massive hole to fill in their offense. Graham was targeted 96 times in 2017 with 26 of those coming within the red zone. Paul Richardson vacates 80 targets and 11 of those in the red zone.
Russell Wilson was having success in 2017 targeting Graham and the Seahawks will look for more of the same from Marshall. The team likely wants Tyler Lockett to take some of those targets and hope that Amara Darboh makes a big leap in 2018. Darboh comes in at 6-2 and 212 pounds and saw only 13 targets in his 191 snaps in 2017 (about 18% of the Seahawks snaps on offense).
Efficiency
Thanks to Josh Hermsmeyer we can use his data over at AirYards.com, especially his work with RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio). RACR is a great efficiency stat that looks at how well a player converts yards thrown at them into receiving yards.
The past two seasons show a massive decline as Marshall has sunk below league average in efficiency. Injuries and quarterback play can be blamed for this decline. However, expecting a bounce back from a 34-year-old wide receiver takes a leap of faith.
Outlook
The Seahawks threw the ball 71 times in 2017 in the red zone. After drafting Rashaad Penny in the first round, and making many statements about getting back to a strong run game, I would expect to see a decline in these numbers in 2018.
Richardson and Graham were the top two targets in the red zone for Seattle in 2017 and the departure of fellow tight end Luke Willson, leaves nearly 60% of the red zone targets up for grabs. Surprisingly, both Eddie Lacy and C.J. Prosise managed to see targets in the red zone in their limited snaps.
It has been over a year since Marshall’s last 100-yard game against the Steelers, and his last touchdown was November of 2016 in a game against New England. This is a 34-year-old wide receiver coming off season-ending ankle surgery in 2017. Don’t bank too much on him producing for your roster.
Brandon Marshall is pretty much free at the time of writing this. He has an average draft position of 239. I don’t see Marshall as more than a very late round flier in redraft or dynasty and likely best fit in best ball leagues hoping that he gets a touchdown.
Marshall has no guaranteed money and is not a surefire lock to win a spot on the Seahawks roster. Consider him no more than a late-round flier in the deepest of leagues.
[/am4show]
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
