2018 Rookie Profile: Antonio Callaway, WR Florida

Richard Jenkins Posted On April 6, 2018

The most successful dynasty degenerates are constantly digging into the deepest valleys to find value. The small school transfer, the former five-star recruit who fell on hard times, and the player overloaded with talent stuck in a bad system are all on the radar for dynasty sharks. To be a successful owner in a dynasty league, you have to look past the first two rounds of rookie ADP and apply the knowledge you’ve obtained through research and analysis. Constantly refining your craft and pushing harder than other owners will put you on the fast-track to success and championships. It never misses.

The DLF rookie profile series is an important piece of that research and analysis, and today we will be looking at one of those players who the sharks will identify, Florida wide receiver Antonio Callaway.

Production Profile

Offensive production in the Jim McElwain era at Florida was hard to come by (I would know, I’m a UF fan). In Callaway’s two active seasons at Florida, the Gators ranked 112th (2015) and 116th (2016) nationally in total offense.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Callaway’s stats are not ballooned like James Washington’s nor are they impressive enough to warrant his production profile as elite. What is impressive are the numbers that cannot be found on a stat sheet – College Market Share and Breakout Age. Callaway led Gator wide receivers in Market Share in both seasons with a 23.4% share in 2015 and a 25.7% share in 2016. A tweet shared by Peter Howard showed highlighted this stat with a graphic:

8. A.Callaway, ovr trend line when combined (if we ignore 3rd season) With a sexual harassment accusation and numerous drug charges on his resume he cut his losses and declared for the NFL (a credit card scam he was apparently caught up in kept him off the field in 2017)….yeah pic.twitter.com/F550MzRqUd

— Peter Howard (@pahowdy) March 31, 2018

Callaway flashed immediately when he stepped foot on campus. He became a starting wide receiver as a true freshman, and also shared punt return duties and returned two for touchdowns. His immediate contribution to the team led him to an 18.7 Breakout Age (95th-percentile). Breakout Age is considerably important in judging incoming rookies because it gives us a better idea of how soon to expect a return on these players as they enter the league.

Game Tape

Though Florida struggled offensively, Callaway was electric and was often targeted on deep fades and crossing routes. His explosiveness and speed make him difficult to cover one-on-one and he has enough size to box out defenders. Callaway is a natural athlete and route runner whose skill set will transfer nicely to the next level. Before attending UF, he was ranked as a four-star recruit by 247sports and had offers from every major SEC program.

Despite all of the positives in his game, Callaway does have his share of troubles. On the field, he tends to drop more catchable balls than he should and he lacks the lateral agility to effectively jump cut and juke defenders after the catch. Off the field, Callaway has been less than a model citizen. A string of off-field incidents began as a freshman when he was accused of sexual assault and cited for marijuana possession. Callaway was suspended for the entire 2017 football season after he was involved in a credit card fraud scheme along with ten other UF teammates.

Measurables

When looking at Antonio Callaway’s spider chart via Mock Draftable, we immediately see that he is an undersized prospect standing at 5’10” (16th-percentile) and 200 pounds (47th-percentile). The speed and agility tests were where Callaway really shined. He ran a 4.41 Forty Yard Dash (83rd-percentile) and his Broad Jump was especially impressive given his size. His Broad Jump measured 121” which ranks him in the 57th percentile among wide receivers. His adjusted Speed Score was 102.9, the 76th percentile among wide receivers.

Among wide receivers with similar measurables as Callaway, his spider chart mostly resembles that of Reggie Wayne, Nelson Agholor, and ArDarius Stewart. Wayne and Agholor were former NFL first-round picks and Stewart was drafted in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Dynasty Value

According to the latest round of DLF rookie ADP conducted by Ryan McDowell, Callaway is being selected as the 39th player overall – WR16. He has been selected as high as pick 33 and as low as pick 47. Currently, it’s safe to say that he is locked in as an early fourth-round pick in rookie drafts. I expect that number to rise as high as the late second round following the NFL draft. He is more NFL-ready than several wide receivers in his cohort and unfortunately, his off-field issues have pushed him down in fantasy and in real life.

Assuming favorable landing spot, I will be willing to spend as high as the 2.08 in rookie picks, just purely betting on his talent. My current rookie WR rankings have Callaway as the WR9, following DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, James Washington, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Anthony Miller.

Conclusion

Many NFL teams will have Antonio Callaway off of their draft board because of his character concerns, but at least one team will be willing to bet on his talent. For his current price of an early fourth-round pick, I will absolutely take a chance on a player who was a freshman All-American in the SEC. If Callaway can put it all together he has the potential to be a dangerous player in fantasy football and the NFL.

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