2018 IDP Rookie Profile: Roquan Smith, LB Georgia
Roquan Smith is the consensus top linebacker in this class. That always scares me because I know top LBs are always overhyped. We love new, shiny things and we also tend to overrate the position. I want to look at how deserved the hype is and how well it will likely translate into IDP effectiveness.
Statistics
Here’s Roquan’s production through his college career at Georgia:
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
It’s solid on paper but not really more than that. Certainly, his last season was spectacular but he was not a dominant player through three years.
Incidentally, his last season was as good as it looks. His tackle efficiency was between 16.1% to 17.7% (depending on which tackle numbers you use) which is excellent. Even in 2016, he managed around 14% which is pretty good.
But with LBs especially, we need to look beyond tackle numbers. We know that tackles are produced as much by what the offense chooses to do as the player’s own ability. And Roquan’s true strengths are not in the running game.
Film
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Where Roquan truly stands out is in coverage. He’s one of the very best in that phase in this draft and all of the other contenders are specialists in that area.
He continually displays elite instincts and range as he closes to the ball and makes plays. He only actually produced three PDs across the last two seasons whilst allowing 56 catches but I urge you not to try and judge the numbers. Just watch the tape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CG5DD3f3veU
He also showed impressive ability as a pass rusher. On 54 pass rushes in 2017, he recorded eight sacks and 22 total pressures. Those are absurd numbers for a player whose trump card is his coverage ability. He predominantly created pressure using his top-tier closing speed. He wasn’t rushing much from the edge, it’s just that his athleticism enabled him to finish off plays that other players would have left on the field.
Roquan’s ability across all phases is obvious but also subtle. I was impressed when I first started watching him but that appreciation only deepened as I started to really go into his decision-making and reactions. He identifies the danger fast and then shows top athleticism in making his way to the play area before routinely making plays. Really that’s all we can ask from a defensive prospect – the intelligence to understand what needs to be done and the skill and ability to execute.
Limited availability of measurables
Choosing to stand on his tape, Roquan has not recorded many numbers. Here’s his latest info on Mock Draftable:
Limited but impressive. 40-yard times are overrated but Roquan’s 4.51 backs up what we see on film. He plays fast and can close from all over the field.
Dynasty Value
As the NFL transforms into the Arena League, coverage LBs are more important than they’ve ever been. In fact, we’ve seen a subclass start to emerge of specialist coverage LBs like Matt Milano and Jayon Brown. Teams have a burning need to field players who can play in space and not be liabilities whilst also having the size to stand up to the run game.
I’ve avoided using his name so far but the comparison of Roquan to Reuben Foster is a valid one. They’re both top athletes with instincts and understanding that only enhance their ability to make plays all over the field. Luke Kuechly is the template for what a modern LB should look like. He has the size, speed, understanding, and flexibility to play in all phases. Foster and Roquan are at least in that mold.
That does not mean he’ll be an elite player as a rookie. Obviously, the draft will make a huge difference but it’s just rare for rookies at the position to produce big numbers and I don’t expect that to change. Any LB taken early will be expected to come in and be fantastic and we continually see it’s just not that easy. Jarrad Davis is a good example from 2017.
I expect Roquan to be taken in the second round of many (if not most) rookie drafts in IDP leagues. I would not recommend taking him that high and therefore do not expect to own any shares at all. He’s going to be a really good player but it’s always a question of value. Someone in your league will think that they’re buying an instant top five LB. Also, someone (maybe the same person) will think that top LBs are a scarce commodity and not understand they can be found relatively easily. So there are two easy ways that Roquan can be overvalued and taken too early. It’ll hurt watching him slide by but just keep reminding yourself how high the Jarrad Davis hype was a year ago.
Conclusions
I love Roquan as a prospect. He’s very close to the player I’d sit down and design as the model for what I want from an LB. He can move and cover. He has sideline-to-sideline range. He’s physical enough to stand up well at the next level. He’s an efficient pass rusher. I think he’s very likely going to be taken in the top half of the first round of the NFL draft and therefore be gifted an every-down role for at least three seasons. Teams I could see picking him include the Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Rams or Steelers – which shows the impact landing spot will have. In Buffalo or Pittsburgh, I’d be confident of Roquan being a top IDP pretty quickly. As a Ram or a 49er, I’d be much more skeptical given the other players and schemes already in place.
Ultimately, I’ll be pretty surprised of Roquan isn’t my top-rated LB in this year’s class in terms of IDP value but that also means I expect him to be bad value at the range he’ll be taken in. Even with that fact, I won’t begrudge anyone taking him whenever they like. He’s going to be a really good player in the NFL and having him on your team will be lovely.
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