2018 Coaching Carousel: Arizona Cardinals

Ryan Finley Posted On March 9, 2018

If you ask me, the importance of coaching changes is one of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy football. It’s not that we’re ignorant of coaches and what effect they can have, but rather that we tend to paint with very broad strokes and work in generalities. We operate on assumptions like “the New Orleans Saints have a good passing offense, I want a piece of that” or “I want any player Aaron Rodgers is targeting.”

While these things may be true, all too often they are retrospective analysis – we find out too late that the Los Angeles Rams, for instance, are now a really good offensive team.

In this series, I’ll take a close look at the major coaching changes throughout the league. My goal is to provide a little more context of what to expect out of the new regimes and hopefully help you find some angles to attack in your leagues this off-season.

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Times are a little tough in the desert. It was only a couple of years ago that the Arizona Cardinals were a popular pick to win the Super Bowl. Wily veteran quarterback Carson Palmer was running Bruce Arians’ strong offense, and they had some superstar defensive players as well. It looked like they were on the cusp of greatness. Well, that train has left Phoenix. Palmer is now retired, and Arians joined him on the golf course, as it were. Even without those two changes, the past couple of seasons had been disappointing, to say the least.

The Coaches

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Change comes to every team, and this year it came home to Arizona. In the ancient “offensive vs defensive” coach debate, the Cardinals went defense this time around by hiring Steve Wilks, the former Carolina defensive coordinator. If you’re an IDP player, this could be good news for the likes of Tyrann Mathieu, Budda Baker, and Patrick Peterson, especially since Wilks brought along Al Holcomb from Carolina to be his new defensive coordinator, and they’ve run some very successful defenses in Carolina.

On the offensive side (and let’s be realistic, that’s why you’re here), Wilks brought in veteran offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. Since 2009, McCoy has essentially had two jobs: four years as a head coach of the Chargers sandwiched between stints as the Broncos’ OC. It can be smart for a shiny new head coach to bring in a coach with experience like McCoy, but we also have to consider his record. His offenses since 2009 have been more middling than strong. He had two fantastic years with the Broncos in 2011 and 2012, but 2012 was with one Peyton Manning in one of the best years of his HOF career.

So what can we expect out of a McCoy run offense? It’s honestly hard to say. He doesn’t have a clear MO when it comes to his offensive philosophy. McCoy tends to alter his systems a bit to fit the available personnel. Remember how he had good years in Denver in 2011 and 2012? 2011 was the Tim Tebow year. As a matter of fact, that year with Tebow likely contributed to McCoy’s flexibility as a coordinator. Now, this flexibility does not mean his system is simple; far from that. He’s known for an extensive and intimidating playbook. (Some have said his playbook is too complex.) But what I would say is that given the current state of the roster, I might expect McCoy’s efforts to place more emphasis on the running game and David Johnson.

This also might be supported by the new O-line coach, Ray Brown. Brown came over from the Panthers as well, and was part of the staff that had 30 consecutive 100-yard rushing games. He has a track record with strong running games, and also has a history with the Cardinals. He was actually a lineman during the inaugural season of the Phoenix Cardinals. Carolina didn’t have the best season running the ball in 2017, but they most certainly have a running mentality all the same.

The Players

There are far more questions than answers in the Arizona desert, and I fear for the season that may be ahead of them. Starting with the QB, we still have no idea who will be behind center after Palmer’s retirement. Will they bring in one of the veteran free agents out there? Will they draft and start someone? Or could they lean on the uninspiring Drew Stanton? It might be a combination of one or more of those things, we will have to wait and see. If they land Kirk Cousins though…

Running back is the one area where I’d be comfortable starting a Cardinal – with David Johnson. That is not to say I would have full confidence, as this situation for the dynamic running back will be quite different. This could be a young, struggling squad in 2018, and DJ won’t have the Palmer security blanket to help power the offense. In fact, they may want to lean on DJ an awful lot, and that can be a lot to ask, even for a guy as talented as Johnson. Still, if he can blossom under the heavy workload, he could win championships next year, much like Todd Gurley did this past season. Outside of DJ, we have to wonder what will become of Adrian Peterson, but we don’t have any info to use right now. Even if he is back, I don’t expect he steals much productive work from Johnson.

Larry Fitzgerald, the ageless wonder, has already said he’s coming back for 2018, even though many expected him to walk. He could be a good asset to fantasy squads again, as he’s already proven that the QB throwing him the ball doesn’t matter as much as we might have thought. Outside of Fitz, there are a lot of questions. John Brown and Jaron Brown are both unrestricted free agents. J.J. Nelson is still under contract, but his production has been up and down. We’ll have to see if the new regime is as enamored with small, fast wideouts as the previous coach. Chad Williams got some preseason hype last year, but he didn’t do much on the field. You can get him cheap, but he’s a flyer right now at best – but we shouldn’t ignore that he’s one of the few wideouts under contract.

For most fantasy owners, tight end is a scramble drill for most of the year. It was a tough year to land a good player at the position. One of the late season darlings of the tight end waiver wire was Ricky Seals-Jones. He could be the TE1 for the Cardinals, and perhaps the new offense under McCoy will better utilize the tight end overall. He did have experience with some strong tight ends in Denver and San Diego.

The Bottom Line

Arizona isn’t the bastion of fantasy production it once was. Things are a lot tougher in town and they are going through a transitional period. They went with a defensive head coach, which places a lot of the potential fantasy value on who they have running the offense. Mike McCoy is experienced, but he doesn’t have the best track record, either. He’s had some really good offensive seasons, but he’s had some real stinkers as well. David Johnson is still DJ, and Fitz will still be around, but what they do at quarterback is a huge question mark that will impact the entire offense. I think I’ll downgrade most Cardinal players this year.

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