2018 Rookie Profile: Marcell Ateman, WR Oklahoma State
In a draft class full of wide receivers who will have a role but may not be superstar dominant players, Marcell Ateman is one of my favorite deeper options. The draft community seems to be desperately trying to make itself fall in love with one of the so-called top prospects whilst simultaneously ignoring some deeper options. Ateman is firmly in the mix for being an excellent value pick in rookie drafts.
Stats
Ateman had a very up-and-down college career. He saw limited action in 2013 and 2014, a big improvement in 2015, a lost season through injury in 2016 and a true breakout in 2017.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
The late breakout isn’t ideal but also no one thinks Ateman is going to be a superstar “number one” receiver. One year of excellent production at least shows me he can do it.
Going into more detail; Ateman managed a 66% catch rate in 2017 as well as 2015 so we know he’s good adequate hands. He had just three drops in 2017 and four in 2015 which further rams home the point.
Deeper still, Ateman hauled in 455 yards on deep passes last season which led to his spectacular 3.5 yards/route run. He also produced 320 yards on contested catches. We can see he was efficient, effective deep and effective when tightly covered.
Film
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I mentioned his efficiency earlier and that’s what jumped out at me when watching him. I see him being an effective chain-mover in the NFL but not one who will break many long runs. In other words – a possession receiver. Here’s a sample of what he managed to produce in college:
He’s clearly a big player and he uses his physique well. Not just on jump balls and in the red zone but also when catching balls in short-intermediate areas. He knows how to use his frame to shut defenders out. This will be harder in the NFL, of course, but he’s still going to be bigger and stronger than almost every defensive back he plays against.
He did lack speed though. Separation was rarely a problem but never for that long. He can create a window where he’s open but not maintain it. I’d expect his YAC to be especially small at the next level.
The other odd thing is his extreme lack of flexibility. Ateman basically lined up at left boundary receiver the whole of 2017. He managed a grand total of two receptions from the slot and I’m pretty sure he never even stepped onto the field past the right hashmark. It’s rare for teams in the NFL to be so strict in alignment – although the 2017 Rams were a notable exception.
So the good news is that he has skills that do translate to the next level. The bad news is that none of his skills are spectacular. I think we’ll see a useful player who never quite explodes into the upper reaches of fantasy production. Anquan Boldin or Donte Moncrief might be decent comparisons for me although he lacks Boldin’s versatility.
Measurables
Some people were very disappointed with Ateman’s workout numbers. In particular his lack of speed and agility. I wasn’t so worried. There’s very little about his game that is reliant on his ability to run fast. Having said that, his 7.07 three cone is certainly a red flag. That’s down at the level that worries me. Here’s how he measured:
On the other hand, he’s nearly 6’5” and clearly has room to fill out his frame. Combined with his long arms, that helps negate his pedestrian vertical leap. Think Eric Decker or Marques Colston in the red zone or coming out of the slot. Those guys succeeded with body position and technique rather than shiftiness. Here are some more physical comparisons:
Dynasty Value
Many great fantasy players will tell you that you’re only ever shooting for upside at the wide receiver position. In an era of heavy passing, there are many, many available options and only the truly elite will set you apart. Ateman is very unlikely to ever be one of those players. But that doesn’t mean he has no value. He’s going so late current rookie drafts that he offers good value simply by being a useful player. If he can round out your roster with reliable non-zero weeks then he’s easily worth the third or fourth round pick that you need to spend on him at current levels.
I do expect him to be drafted earlier than the draft community currently expects though because the NFL values what he brings to the table more than we do.
Conclusion
Ateman is a player who is all about the setting of expectations. If you treat him as a solid roster receiver with touchdown upside then he’s a lovely late-round pick in rookie drafts. If you’re looking for a breakout player who could end up being hugely valuable then he doesn’t have the ceiling you’re looking for. He’s not going to be a top-five WR in this class but he’s got a very good chance at ending up in the top ten which for me is worth a late pick.
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