Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Fifteen
Welcome back. It’s championship week!
Congratulations to everyone gearing up for their league’s final. For those of us who are out, remember, there is no off-season. It’s time to start thinking about these trends strictly in terms of what they may mean in the long term.
So, let’s dig in, and see what we can find.
Data and Links
I’m writing my opinion on data. You can, and should disagree at will. I hope these are links that can help you do that.
You can see the complete data with extra stats and metrics I’m collecting, including snap and touch %, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11M2V-gYlAlrK74eN688NMTrZ9vAPsOanzfAzLVSFLgE/edit?usp=sharing
Sources: Airyards.com, ffstatistics.com, and 4for4.com
The Top 12
Here are the players who have led in receiving opportunity in the last three weeks.
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Notes:
- Taywan Taylor and Kenny Stills have come back into their offenses with a bang. Both have been very promising players in the past and I think are interesting value targets in dynasty, and streamers in the championship week in a pinch. Still’s target share dropped last week after two weeks of absolute domination, however, and Danny Amendola took back significant share.
- DeVante Parker has been giving up targets whenever someone else is available all year. He’s a dynasty sell.
- Antonio Brown ranks 18th in WOPR, by the way, which is still very high. But JuJu Smith-Schuster has definitely taken over the volume over the last three weeks.
- Kenny Golladay begun his return to expected PPG based on opportunity last week.
The Risers
Here are the top 12 players to gain the most opportunity in the last three weeks.
Notes:
- Taywan Taylor has really come back strong over the last two weeks. But it’s worth noting that Corey Davis took back the lead role in target share in week 15 and as we’ve seen with Michel Gallup, the second option can disappear on a week to week basis. Approach with caution.
- Robby Anderson has become the lead receiver in New York. He’s a solid flex option in championship week.
- Tim Patrick continues to be able to crowd out Courtland Sutton for volume.
- DaeSean Hamilton has secured over 15% of Denver’s targets since the loss of Emmanuel Sanders.
- Remember if a player doesn’t have a WOPR position rank, they have not averaged ten PPG (PPR scoring) over the last three weeks.
The Fallers
Here are the players who have lost the most opportunity over the last three weeks. To make it as relevant as possible, I’ve also restricted it to players who have had at least 10% of their team’s targets over the last three weeks.
Notes:
- Adam Thielen has suffered a major loss in volume since week nine. He has averaged a higher target share over the last three weeks than Stefon Diggs, but Diggs also lead the team by a significant margin in target share last week. The offense in general has tapered down its passing volume in the same time frame. In short, they are both starters, but we can’t expect what we have come to expect from either in championship week.
Under-producers
Here are all 17 players currently three points or more under their expected PPG over the last three weeks. This should indicates we could see an uptick in production.
Notes:
- The players who stick out to me the most are those who have averaged ten PPG and have under-produced. Considering their relatively high points floor and their under-performance, they should be the most likely to spike up: Kenny Golladay, Michael Thomas, Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson.
- I think Zay Jones, DeVante Parker, and Josh Doctson may just be bad. They are dynasty sells.
- John Brown has suffered from the change in quarterback – no surprise there – but his volume continues to be a positive sign given his earlier production this year.
- This would make an interesting list of trade targets if we could get them at value this off-season.
Alright everyone, that’s about that it. I’m planning on writing up the target share for the next two weeks as well, though I’m not sure how many people it can help after this week. So I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you for checking out this series. I think I will be able to highlight more interesting and actionable trends from the 2018 season this off-season for dynasty. But for now, I just hope you all found some value in this series.
Good luck to you all. May the target share be with you, or something like that.
SERIES NOTES
Zeno James, from ffstatistics.com, has been invaluable in collecting this data on a weekly basis. Give him a follow at @theDude_Z on Twitter
I’m using a mix of data from 4for4.com and Airyards.com
CoV = The Coefficient of Variation, it measures the variance in a sample (i.e. how much change there is week to week)
Airyards = the total distance before the player caught his targets (essentially receiving yards minus yards after the catch)
Regression = a rate should return closer to “normal” or average when it is greatly over or under that average over a long sample size
WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating. It weights target share by the player’s share of air yards. It is one of the most stable (week to week and year to year) opportunity metrics and has extra utility because it describes some of the value in opportunity. It’s also useful because it can highlight potential regression when compared with fantasy points.
RACR = Receiver Airyards Conversion Ratio. Essential a players receiving yards divided by their airyards. It describes how well they have converted airyards into yards. It’s one of if not the most stable efficiency metrics (not a high bar) for the wide receiver position. It’s’ also very description of how well a player has performed on their targets. Higher numbers are better, numbers over 1.5 are general nose based on erratic or small samples. League average of WR’s is 0.8.
It should be noted that the WOPR calculation is my own and imperfect when compared Airyards.com. It has a slightly different player order at times, however, it is ranking them in ranges appropriately
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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