If nothing else, I hope this weekly column was able to prepare you for the DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick breakouts last week. We highlighted both players as potential risers in week 14, and neither disappointed.
Its crunch time for dynasty leagues so I’m going to try and keep it simple this week. I’m narrowing the focus and limits of who target share is telling us to pay attention to for week 15. By and large, it’s not time to get crazy with start-sit decisions and I want to reflect that.
Now, let’s dig in.
Data and Links
I’m writing my opinion on data. You can, and should disagree at will. I hope these are links that can help you do that.
You can see snapshots of the receiving opportunity for all 32 NFL teams here: https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/1070200989247041537
You can see the complete data with extra stats and metrics I’m collecting, including snap and touch %, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11M2V-gYlAlrK74eN688NMTrZ9vAPsOanzfAzLVSFLgE/edit?usp=sharing
Sources: Airyards.com, ffstatistics.com, and 4for4.com
The Top 12
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Here are the players who have led in receiving opportunity in the last three weeks.
- DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen have been underproducing. They should see a PPG rise in the last few weeks.
- George Kittle and Amari Cooper’s big games now lean them towards overproducing. You don’t sit either though.
- Kenny Stills‘ big day, much like Ferris Buller’s, is probably a one-time thing. But he’s been above average in opportunity as much as anyone this year for Miami, so he could continue to be the most relevant WR for fantasy.
Here are the top 12 players to gain the most opportunity in the last three weeks.
- Dante Pettis‘ rise in opportunity now has him around league average for WRs with four or more targets in any given week. It places him as a mid-range wide receiver two right now.
- Michel Gallup is due. I don’t know when, but he’s due a big game. Maybe if Dak Prescott can connect with him down the field?
Here are the players who have lost the most opportunity over the last three weeks.
It should be noted that these players have lost as much overall opportunity over the last three weeks as several who have had to sit for injuries.
- Brandin Cooks still leads the Rams wide receivers in opportunity but the team’s overall WOPR (air yards adjusted target share essentially, see notes below) has come down since their bye week. Hopefully, the team can bounce back up just in time for our semi-finals.
- Devin Funchess is the odd man out in a three-way race for opportunity in Carolina between Ian Thomas, D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.
One Final Word: Denver
All three wide receivers in Denver had close to, or above, a 20% target share in week 14. That’s unlikely to sustain even for a short period.
While I have concerns about Courtland Sutton from a dynasty perspective, if I were to guess, it’s his opportunity that will spike back up in week 15. Where Tim Patrick is excelling and getting most of his opportunities (in week 14 at least) in a similar area of the field to Sutton (both have around a 12 aDot), I think he takes the bigger dip in target share.
So if choosing between them, I’d rank them Sutton > Hamilton > Patrick.
Hopefully, your semi-finals don’t come down to that decision though.
Alright everyone, I’m outta here. Good luck to you all, may the target share be with you, or something like that.
Good luck out there.
Zeno James, from ffstatistics.com, has been invaluable in collecting this data on a weekly basis. Give him a follow at @theDude_Z on Twitter
I’m using a mix of data from 4for4.com and Airyards.com
- CoV = The Coefficient of Variation, it measures the variance in a sample (i.e. how much change there is week to week)
- Airyards = the total distance before the player caught his targets (essentially receiving yards minus yards after the catch)
- Regression = a rate should return closer to “normal” or average when it is greatly over or under that average over a long sample size
- WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating. It weights target share by the player’s share of air yards. It is one of the most stable (week to week and year to year) opportunity metrics and has extra utility because it describes some of the value in opportunity. It’s also useful because it can highlight potential regression when compared with fantasy points.
- RACR = Receiver Airyards Conversion Ratio. Essential a players receiving yards divided by their airyards. It describes how well they have converted airyards into yards. It’s one of if not the most stable efficiency metrics (not a high bar) for the wide receiver position. It’s’ also very description of how well a player has performed on their targets. Higher numbers are better, numbers over 1.5 are general nose based on erratic or small samples. League average of WR’s is 0.8.
It should be noted that the WOPR calculation is my own and imperfect when compared Airyards.com. It has a slightly different player order at times, however, it is ranking them in ranges appropriately
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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