Analyzing the best values on DraftKings will help you maximize the potential of your lineups. This will provide an added edge by allowing us to explore all possible options for our lineups, helping us capitalize on every opportunity. The reason why we do this is that we don’t want to pay full price for production. Getting fantasy points for cheap is what this game is all about. Let’s take a look at some players who could help your team at a reasonable price this week.
Nick Mullens, QB SF ($4,600)
Mullens is the cheapest starting quarterback on the main slate. The salaries on DraftKings at the quarterback position are very tight this week, providing limited opportunities to snag values at low price points. For example, you can pay $2,000 more and get Drew Brees who has the third highest salary behind Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger. When salaries are this tight it’s best to limit your exposure, mix up your lineups and play the matchups.
The extra wiggle room Mullens provides for your bankroll could help you spend more at other positions. He’s averaging 17.92 fantasy points per game. Since he’s not one of the most popular options at quarterback this week, his ownership rate should be low, giving you an edge in GPP formats if he exceeds expectations and has a big week. His low salary might allow you to fit in another stud player into your lineup at another position, making him a trendy cash play.
Let’s get into his matchup for this week. The 49ers will be at home playing the red-hot 6-6 Denver Broncos who have won three straight games. They are allowing on average 17.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking 13th in the NFL. Mullens has passed for 220 yards or more in each of his four starts. Although, he’s not one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league, he’s still reliable and will more than likely not bottom out on you. His consistency relies on garbage time. The 49ers are trailing by large margins in most of their games, which is generating a positive game script for Mullens.
Most betting sites have the 49ers favored to win this game by six points and the over/under for this game is at 41.5. This is expected to be a low scoring game, but the like most games, the 49ers are expected to trail during most the game. The flow of the game should benefit Mullens’ workload because the team will need him to consistently pass the football in order for them to stay in contention. He should be good for a solid 12-17 fantasy points this week, making him a reliable cheap option in DFS.
Other options: Matt Ryan $5,600
Lamar Miller, RB HOU ($5,100)
I’ve never been a big advocate for Lamar Miller in redraft or dynasty. The great thing about DFS is you can put players into your lineups that you don’t normally roster in other formats. Miller has rushed for over 100-yards in each of his last two games. The Houston Texans are currently on a roll, winning nine straight games and they will be playing the Indianapolis Colts at home. The Colts have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league, allowing just 104 yards per game while also holding opposing running back to just 3.9 yards per carry. By the numbers, this doesn’t look like the most optimal matchup for Miller.
What makes Miler intriguing this week is his price tag. His salary makes him a bargain compared to most of the running backs slated on DraftKings. His workload is consistent, and his low entry fee will allow you to jam in other high-priced players into your lineup. Not many people are going to tout Miller as a must-start which will make him a contrarian play in GPP formats. I don’t suggest using him in cash games because there’s a chance that he could not live up to his expectations. Also, just in case he’s a massive bust this week, I would limit your exposure to him to mitigate the damages if he does put up a goose egg in the box score.
Vegas has the Texans favored to win by 4.5 points and the over/under for this game is set at 53 points. The Texans should easily win this game and Miller should see some extra carries in the fourth quarter when they decide to run out the clock. He’s always a threat to burn the defense for a big play and that could possibly happen in a divisional game where both teams know each other very well. He’s not the safest option on the main slate, but he’s hard to ignore at his price point.
Bruce Ellington, WR DET ($3,800)
Ever since he signed with the Detroit Lions, Bruce Ellington has owned a 24 percent share of the passing targets and has received at least seven targets in each of his three games with the team. According to his 3.3 average depth of target, Matt Stafford targets him frequently around the line of scrimmage which means most of his targets should be catchable. This coincides with his 73.07 percent catch rate. In fantasy, you want to chase players who are efficient and are getting enough volume to be productive. Ellington is checking the boxes in both categories. He’s not far off from being priced at the minimum for DraftKings. Ellington is that dirt cheap receiver who you put into your lineup in order to sneak in another stud running back or receiver. I guarantee there’s going to be a lot of people using him in their lineups, but it’s still acceptable to use him in your GPP lineups as long as you remain contrarian at other positions.
Vegas has the over/under set at 40.5 points and they have the Lions beating the Arizona Cardinals by 2.5 points. Both teams have seen better days and this game could get really ugly quick. This means anything can happen and that means Ellington has the potential to produce a WR1 game. He’s going to get a lot of balls thrown his way and he’s slippery enough to jet past the defense for a long touchdown run. He’s one of the best values on DraftKings this week.
Ian Thomas, TE CAR ($2,700)
Greg Olsen is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a foot injury. Thomas will take over as the team’s starting tight end. He should see some looks in the passing game. Last week, after Olsen left the game with an injury, Thomas saw 12 percent of the passing targets. This week he will be playing against a Cleveland Browns team who got blown out by the Houston Texans by a considerable margin. They are looking to rebound this week and shutdown the Panthers. Thomas will get the chance to show off what he can do against one of the better defenses in the league.
Thomas is one of the better values on DraftKings this week. There are only a handful of tight ends that have a lower salary than him this week, but none of those tight ends have the same upside as Thomas does. He’s dirt cheap and it’s not the end of the world if he busts because he’s going to allow you to fit in a few higher priced players into your lineup. It’s best to go cheap at tight end because the position is volatile from week to week. By limiting what you spend on tight end, you mitigate some of the risk at the position.
While looking at the numbers for this matchup, you’ll notice that Vegas has the Panthers favored by 1.5 points. They are expecting this to be a tight game and there’s a chance they could lose. The over/under is set at 47 points, making the implied point total favorable for the Panthers’ passing game. Thomas isn’t a lock but at his price point, he’s a safe bet to make.