Welcome back. I thought I’d change it up this week and try and dig into some rookie situations as well as posting the players rising and falling in opportunity. Let’s dig in!
Data and Links
I’m writing my opinion on data. You can, and should disagree at will. I hope these are links that can help you do that.
You can see snapshots of the receiving opportunity for all 32 NFL teams here.
You can see the complete data with extra stats and metrics I’m collecting, including snap and touch %, here.
Sources: Airyards.com, ffstatistics.com, and 4for4.com
The Top 12
Here are the players who have led in receiving opportunity over the last three weeks:
Notes
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Tom Kislingbury
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Gregory Massa
December 2, 2018 at 7:56 am
“Anyone who undervalues Antonio Brown because of his age is a fish” … Are you serious right now?? JuJu is keeping pace with AB in targets and making more catches. AB is clearly the guy when it comes to TDs, but JuJu is definitely the future–clear as day. I’m buying JuJu and selling AB before it’s too late!
Peter Howard
December 5, 2018 at 9:26 am
Good question Gregory, and yes I’m serious, though not about the insult to those with a different opinion, that was just a little fun I was trying to have.
AB’s history of production put him in an elite tier of production that simple is too small to make any sweeping assuming about his potential drop off. His efficiency is down this year, which he is making up for (no less than 15PPG) with increased Touchdowns (and he’s not overproducing them, he gets a volume that can sustain his TD RT
There is no evidence that WR’s “drop off” after an inefficient year at any age, any more than they “bounce back”
AB has been above the league average in RACR w/w as much or more than OBJ, Mike Evans, and Tyreek Hill, but no one thinks they are going to stop producing next year. He’s also had the biggest “spike weeks” in W/w RACR this year (I.e the two most efficient games of that group)
Alexander Scott
December 3, 2018 at 8:31 am
Too late for what though? Old age? AB is still a top 10 WR and will be for another 3 years. He has shown zero signs of regression. That offense can sustain two WR1’s. That’s a good enough investment for me and I will gladly grab him wherever I can.
Peter Howard
December 5, 2018 at 9:29 am
He is down **significantly** (by his own high standard) inefficiency on a per target basis.
I’m just not convinced this will be his fantasy career death nail
Gregory Marshall
December 4, 2018 at 11:44 am
I’m a big believer in “Airyards” and believe QBs should not get credit for what a catcher does after the catch. They should only get credit for “airyards.” QB yards are the most padded stat in sports history IMHO.
GM