Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Eleven
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
EARLY GAMES
DALLAS AT ATLANTA
Through the first five weeks of the season, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was just the QB24 with a single game best of QB17. Things have turned around since. After failing to score a single rushing touchdown earlier in the season, Prescott has three scores on the ground in the past four games. He also has fantasy finishes of QB2, QB8, QB18 and QB7. Prescott has accounted for nine total scores over the past four games, including four in the two games with receiver Amari Cooper.
Week Ten was an odd game for rookie running back Ito Smith of the Falcons. Although he saw his fewest carries since Week Five, he did set a new season-high with five targets and four receptions. Smith’s usage has been up and down all season but his RB40 finish last week was his worst since Week Three.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE
The Ravens will almost certainly be without veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, who missed practice the entire week and is labeled doubtful for this game with the Bengals. There is some doubt which backup would actually start in Flacco’s place but regardless, we should see a heavy dose of first-round draft pick Lamar Jackson. The former Heisman winner has seen action in most games, though has only attempted 12 passes all season. I can’t wait to see Jackson in action.
While there was some optimism the Bengals might get injured star receiver A.J. Green back on the field this week, he’s once again been ruled out with a toe injury. That means another huge opportunity for Tyler Boyd, who struggled through one of his worst games of the season last week in his debut as Andy Dalton’s top target. Even with a down game, Boyd is still the WR14 for the season.
CAROLINA AT DETROIT
The Lions will try to break out of their cold streak but they’ll have to do it without tight end Michael Roberts and even more importantly, wide receiver Marvin Jones, who suffered a knee injury last week. This should be good news for breakout receiver Kenny Golladay, who broke out of his slump last week with six grabs for 78 yards and a score. His 13 targets also represent a new career-high and as the clear top option against the Panthers
The Panthers will once again play without wide receiver Torrey Smith, which means good things for rookie D.J. Moore. Smith has missed the past three games and over that span, Moore leads Carolina wide receivers with 13 targets, 10 receptions, and 126 receiving yards. Facing the Lions weak pass defense, Moore has a chance to add even more separation in those numbers.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS
Somehow, it has actually gone somewhat ignored in the dynasty community, but the Andrew Luck comeback season really has been amazing. Remember, several months ago, there was at least some concern about Luck’s ability to ever play again after missing over a year with a serious shoulder injury. Not only has he played but he’s displayed the ability to handle massive volume, but he averages over 41 pass attempts per game, second-most in the league. Luck’s weekly fantasy numbers, due in part to that heavy passing volume, have been unreal. After a pair of duds, QB30 and QB20 early in the season, Luck has this to show since Week Three: QB3, QB4, QB10, QB4, QB8 and QB9. Although we’re talking about different players and a different regime altogether for both teams, Luck has had great success against Tennessee, throwing for multiple touchdowns in each of his past five games against his AFC South rival.
Titans receiver Taywan Taylor will miss another game with a foot injury and Tajae Sharpe is also questionable with a bad ankle. This could lead to another huge performance for wideout Corey Davis, who was dominant last week, catching seven balls for 125 yards and a score. The Colts have been stingy on defense, allowing only one WR1 game the entire season, but the volume Davis can expect might be enough to overcome a tough matchup. Also, if Sharpe does indeed site, undrafted rookie Cameron Batson could also see a big spike in playing time. Batson has seen action over the past four games, playing 43% and 55% of the snaps in Week Nine and Week Ten, respectively.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW YORK GIANTS
It has been a very frustrating season for the Giants, who have won just two games and are headed for another high draft pick. Perhaps they’ll find their next franchise quarterback with that pick. What has been impressive this season is that both wide receiver Odell Beckham and running back Saquon Barkley have been able to post very successful seasons, statistically. OBJ is the current WR8, while Barkley is RB4. Perhaps even more impressive has been Barkley’s role as a pass-catcher. Barkley has 62 receptions for 530 yards and two scores. As Pro Football Focus writer Scott Barrett recently noted, these numbers are good enough to rank Barkley as the WR24.
One of the strangest stories of the season is Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate. As a free agent last off-season, most assumed the Bucs would let Brate walk and hand the job to OJ Howard. Instead, Tampa Bay inked Brate to a six-year, $41 million deal. That has not led to production as Brate is just the TE27 for the season and hasn’t even finished inside the top 25 weekly tight ends since Week Six.
HOUSTON AT WASHINGTON
The Texans receiver depth chart has been more like a merry go round this year with Will Fuller and rookie Keke Coutee in and out of the lineup with injuries, not to mention the recent acquisition of veteran Demaryius Thomas. Although Coutee is officially a game-time decision for this game against the Redskins, he is expected to play. This would be the first game with Coutee and Thomas on the field, along with superstar DeAndre Hopkins. In his Texans debut, the team forced targets to Thomas early on and then he saw almost nothing the rest of the game. This contest should give us a glimpse of what to expect from the two complementary receivers the rest of the season.
The Redskins are a surprise 6-3 team, leading the NFC East. Not only is this not what most expected in the pre-season but it might even be a revelation if you were simply judging by their current offensive depth chart. Nearly all key players are either injured or failing to match expectations. With an ugly receiver depth chart, one player to watch is rookie receiver Trey Quinn, who was activated from the team’s injured reserve list this week. Quinn, the former running mate of Broncos rookie receiver Courtland Sutton, has missed the entire season with an ankle injury. With the continued absence of receiver Jamison Crowder, Quinn could get a shot at serious playing time as the season winds down.
PITTSBURGH AT JACKSONVILLE
The day many never expected came and passed last week as holdout running back Le’Veon Bell failed to report by the deadline required for him to play this season. In case there was any doubt, this is now fully James Conner’s backfield. Conner was in the news himself as he dealt with a head injury. He was able to practice and is set to face a reeling Jaguars defense. Despite their recent infighting, Jacksonville has only allowed one top ten running back this season. There’s still no way I am considering moving away from Conner, who had four straight games as the RB6 or better before leaving last week’s game with the previously mentioned head injury.
Earlier in the season as the Jaguars were dealing with multiple injuries at the tight end position, the team turned to unheralded veteran James O’Shaughnessy. He had a very respectable three-game stretch, totaling eight receptions for 84 yards, and posting weekly fantasy finishes of TE28, TE22 and TE24. Then, he too suffered an injury and only returned last week. When he returned, he immediately claimed the team’s TE1 role, catching five of six targets for 46 yards, which represented his second-most yards in a single game.
LATE GAMES
OAKLAND AT ARIZONA
As if things couldn’t get worse for the Raiders, the team will be without receivers Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, both dealing with knee injuries, when they face the Cardinals. The Raiders healthy depth chart now includes Brandon LaFell, Seth Roberts and Dwayne Harris. One player I’m interested to see is rookie Marcell Ateman, Oakland’s seventh-round pick, who has yet to play a snap this season. If the Oakland staff was wise, they’d find out what they have in young players like Ateman but the reality is they continue to trot out veterans with little chance of making a long-term impact with the team.
The Cardinals offense is completely different since the team fired Mike McCoy and gave Byron Leftwich the play-calling role. As it should’ve been from the start of the season, the offense now centers around running back David Johnson. Since Leftwich took over in Week Eight, Johnson is the RB7, averaging over 25 fantasy points per game. Facing the lame duck Raiders, Johnson should be able to do whatever he wants in this matchup.
DENVER AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
After missing the previous two games, the Broncos will have rookie running back Royce Freeman back on the field and they are expected to go right back to a three-man backfield committee. Freeman has topped out at 42% of the snaps this season and over 39% of his fantasy production has come from touchdowns. In his first game back, Freeman gets a difficult matchup as the Chargers have allowed three RB1 games all season and they’ve yet to give up a rushing touchdown to an opposing running back.
The Chargers come into this game with a banged-up receiving corps. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both popped up on the injury report late in the week, though both are still expected to suit up against the Broncos. Facing the Broncos solid pass defense, this will be another game in which the Chargers rely on Melvin Gordon and the running game. Allen (WR18) and Williams (WR55) have each been fantasy disappointments this year.
PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS
And we thought the arrival of receiver Golden Tate in Philadelphia might have a negative impact in tight end Zach Ertz. In their first game playing together, Ertz set new season-highs with 16 targets, 14 receptions, 145 yards and two touchdowns. He also posted over 40 fantasy points, which was the best fantasy game from a tight end since Week Eight of the 2014 season when Rob Gronkowski posted 41.9 fantasy points on the Bears. Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar recently noted that Ertz’s 184 fantasy points is the highest total ever for any tight end through the first nine games of a season.
After failing to even record in last week’s easy win over the Bengals, rookie receiver Tre’Quan Smith of the Saints will once again be in a prime blowup position at home on the turf. Many fantasy players are simply throwing up their hands in the frustration of trying to find the third relevant pass-catcher in the New Orleans offense after receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara, who combine to own 52% of the targets from quarterback Drew Brees. Over the past month, Smith has a 15% target share.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO
The Bears passing attack changes from week to week. Currently, veteran receiver Taylor Gabriel appears to be on the outs as Anthony Miller is surging. Miller has a pair or top 24 fantasy performances over the past three games. Another wrinkle came over the past week as Chicago activated tight end Adam Shaheen from the injured reserve. Trey Burton has been a solid TE1 all season but is surviving on touchdown production and Shaheen caught 12 of his 14 red zone targets as a rookie, with three going for touchdowns.
The Vikings are back in action after their bye and travel to Chicago. Minnesota added some running back depth during their week off, claiming veteran running back Ameer Abdullah from the Lions. Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray are seemingly locked in at the top two spots but Abdullah has long been a player dynasty owners chased in hopes of finding another athletic, high-upside back.
MONDAY NIGHT
KANSAS CITY AND LOS ANGELES RAMS
Here we go! The game of the year is finally here and it brings with it a bit of controversy as the game was moved to Los Angeles after the field in Mexico City was deemed unfit for gameplay. Getting away from the nasty terrain is good news for fantasy players as these teams will be able to live up to their typical scoring pace.
For the Chiefs, receiver Sammy Watkins is questionable to play with a foot injury and it is looking like he will miss his second straight game. This is clearly good news for wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Also, good news is that the Rams have struggled to defend pass-catchers. They’ve allowed ten top-24 fantasy games to receivers, though only three to tight ends.
Speaking of poor defense, the Chiefs are the league’s worst in allowing 13 top-24 fantasy games to running backs. You were already using Rams back Todd Gurley but this is a reminder you can expect his sixth multiple-touchdown game of the season. Also, this will be the Rams first game since receiver Cooper Kupp suffered a torn ACL. Both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks will see their floor and ceiling raised by this opportunity while receiver Josh Reynolds should be the complementary receiver who benefits the most.
[/am4show]
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Landing Spots - April 15, 2024
- Five Landing Spots That Would Tank Rookie WR Value - April 13, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Backup Quarterbacks - April 8, 2024
