The Tight End Premium: One Last Chance

Josh Brickner Posted On November 7, 2018

The tight end position was a wasteland for fantasy points in 2017 as Travis Kelce (32) and Rob Gronkowski (36) were the only two to finish inside the top 50 in PPR scoring. Fortunately, a dynasty owner doesn’t need to spend a high startup pick or valuable trade assets to acquire a starting tight end.

Of all of the players to finish as a PPR TE1 in 2017, seven of the twelve (57%) had an August 2017 DLF startup ADP over 100 while (33%) were being drafted after the 175th pick late last Summer. Finding value is as important now more than ever as a growing trend in the dynasty community is the tight end premium league. In this format, owners are either given an extra half PPR point for receptions and/or forced to start two players at the position. Thus, the walls are closing in on those dynasty owners who choose to punt on tight end.

This bi-weekly article series will focus on giving savvy dynasty participants a leg up in identifying both undervalued tight ends you should buy right now and overrated players whom you should sell at their maximum value. All of the trade examples are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder, but please remember these are just examples. The specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations. The price to acquire Chris Herndon in the DLF Staff League will more than likely be much different (read: higher) than in your home league with a few inexperienced players.

In this week’s edition, I put two more young tight ends on your radar while giving you one last chance to sell two overvalued TE1s.

Young Tight Ends to Acquire

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Chris Herndon, NYJ

Lost in the offensive dumpster fire of the last three games for the New York Jets (Sam Darnold has thrown two touchdowns against seven interceptions in that span) is the performance of rookie tight end Herndon. Herndon had his three-game touchdown streak snapped on Sunday against the Dolphins, but caught all four of his targets while setting a career high in receiving yards (62).

The last four weeks have seen the University of Miami product stake his claim to the Jets TE1 job converting his 15 targets into 11 receptions, 176 yards, and three touchdowns. He has been TE7 over this span and could theoretically get better in the future once the Jets make the necessary coaching changes.

In the last few weeks, Herndon has been acquired for a 2019 fourth and fifth-round rookie pick and as part of a package with Josh Doctson for the king of mediocrity Eric Ebron. The former Hurricane looks to be a fringe TE1 with touchdown upside for the rest of 2018 and could really thrive next year in the Big Apple.

Jeff Heuerman, DEN

Through one game, the biggest winner of all Denver pass-catchers from the Demaryius Thomas trade is ~~Emmanuel Sanders~~ (6/47), ~~Courtland Sutton~~ (3/57)… Jeff Heuerman?! The Ohio State product led all Broncos in targets (11), receptions (10), receiving yards (83), and caught the only touchdown pass of the evening. Heuerman is not only the unquestioned TE1 for Denver, playing in 77.7% of the offensive snaps the last seven contests, but has 12 red zone targets in that span.

The former Buckeye has found pay dirt in two straight games and has been acquired in the last several weeks straight up for $15 and $40 blind bidding dollars. Temper expectations as Heuerman is still only TE17 on the season. Yet, the Denver tight end should be easier to acquire during a week ten bye and is a TE2 streamer with TE1 touchdown upside.

Tight Ends Who Should Have Already Been Sold High

Jared Cook, OAK

Jared Cook’s statlines (Targets/Recs/Yds/Tds) in his last four games:

@ LAC: 6/4/20/0
vs Sea: 2/2/10/0
vs IND: 5/4/74/1
@ SF: 2/2/20/0

Cook still may be TE5, but I’m selling the 31 year old in both dynasty & redraft leagues.#FantasyFootball #dynastytrades #RaiderNation

— Josh Brickner (@joshbrickner) November 5, 2018

One would expect a team with a defense ranked second to last in points allowed per game (31.5) to utilize their ten-year veteran at tight end to remain “competitive” each week. Yet, there’s not much Jon Gruden does as a head coach that makes sense in the 21st century. The usage of Cook in Thursday’s primetime matchup against the 49ers was beyond infuriating. The Raiders trailed by double digits from early in the second quarter and only gave their leading receiver (Cook) two targets the entire game?!

This Oakland offense is a black hole (pun intended) where weekly matchups (and fantasy championships) go to die! The dynasty community has caught onto Gruden’s gross incompetence and it has negatively affected Cook’s value. He’s only fetching a 2019 second or third round rookie pick in the last few weeks.

If I’m rebuilding, target a tight end needy contending squad and pry one of these picks away from him/her. Still in contention? I’d rather start the majority of tight ends in the top 25 at the position over Cook in any given week. Wait until he has a productive outing and/or tout his top five ranking in negotiations to get any starting caliber player in return.

Eric Ebron, IND

With Jack Doyle (hip) back in the lineup in Week 8, Eric Ebron saw his snaps cut to 18% vs. OAK. Doyle at 75%.

In three games where Doyle has played this year, Ebron's snap rates are 45% (Week 1), 26% (W2), 18% (W8). Doyle out-targeting Ebron 22 to 11.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 29, 2018

If you’ve read this column at any point over the last two months and Eric Ebron’s decaying dynasty carcass is still on your roster, you have nobody else to blame but the man/woman in the mirror. Those of you who labeled all of us sane folks “haters” for doubting the sustainability of Ebron’s TE1 production once Doyle returned only need to digest the numbers in the above tweet.

Lucky for all of you Ebron apologists, the Indianapolis (backup!) tight end caught a touchdown pass on one of his 17 offensive snaps and still maintains a top five (TE4) seasonal ranking. This touchdown reception leaves the sell-high window on the former Lion cracked open ever so slightly. Yet, if you ignore my advice this time, you may not get another chance.

Eric Ebron and a 2020 sixth for Emmanuel Sanders
Eric Ebron for Corey Clement and a 2019 third
Eric Ebron for a 2019 third
Eric Ebron for a 2019 second
Eric Ebron for Mark Andrews

The value for Ebron seems to be all over the map at this point according to the DLF Trade Finder since his last game on October 28th. Unfortunately, the only two of the above trades I’d accept would be the deals where I’m receiving Sanders or the 2019 second. I obviously don’t agree with Ebron’s current valuation (ranked as TE12 in DLF rankings ), but I certainly don’t recommend giving him away. Cite both the North Carolina product’s current seasonal and DLF ranking to strengthen your negotiating position. It’s been said “the cream always rises to the top,” well the average always sink back to the middle and this is where Eric Ebron will reside for the remainder of his career.

Were you involved in a trade for one of these players? Disagree with any of my assessments? Want me to profile a specific player for the next article? Reach out and/or give me a follow on Twitter and I’d be happy to chat with you.

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Josh Brickner

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Josh has been playing fantasy football since 1995 when he was 10 years old helping his grandfather. Josh played only in redraft leagues until recently when someone told him dynasty fantasy football could feed his addiction year round. Now he’s hooked! Outside of fantasy football, Josh loves having his heart broken by Cleveland professional sports teams, quenching his thirst for travel with his wife, and taking long walks with his four-legged best friend Roosevelt. Give him a follow on Twitter.