Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Eight

Peter Howard Posted On November 2, 2018

Welcome back! This week I thought I’d spend more time checking in on our rookie wide receivers. It’s been a couple of weeks since I separated them out and as dynasty players, they are something we are more interested in than most other league types.

Since I didn’t want to skimp on breaking down the players with the most opportunity in the last three weeks and those who have seen the biggest increase, this week’s column is a little longer than most. Let me know if it’s too much, too little or if there’s something else you’d like to see in the comments below or by hitting me up on Twitter any time.

Now that’s over with, let’s dig in…

Data and Links

I’m writing my opinion on the data. You can, and should disagree at will. I hope these are links that can help you do that.

You can see snapshots of the receiving opportunity for all 32 NFL teams here: https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/1058020815395000326

You can see the complete data with extra stats and metrics I’m collecting, including snap and touch percentage, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11M2V-gYlAlrK74eN688NMTrZ9vAPsOanzfAzLVSFLgE/edit?usp=sharing

Sources: Airyards.com and 4for4.com

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Top 12

These players have had the most opportunity over the last three weeks.

If we didn’t get points for touchdowns ,Julio Jones would straddle the fantasy world like a god and no one, no one, would come even close. As it is, he’s still almost that good.
If opportunity is a measure of breaking out, then Will Fuller broke out, finally.
Marvin Jones had already seen an increase in usage over the last three weeks before Golden Tate was traded. This was, in part, due to his big game in week eight. However, I think it would be interesting to see if he got as big of a jump in value as Kenny Golladay in your league. He was a top two level player overall last year but lacked the targets to sustain it. If his target share rises, he could definitely be the better value, even though I’ve been firmly on #TeamGolladay since before he was drafted.
Cole Beasley has been a consistent value as a flex wide receiver this year, though the arrival of Amari Cooper could change a lot.
Robert Woods‘ opportunity has risen while Cooper Kupp has been out but his PPG dropped. I think it’s becoming more clear that while both are good, they are even better together.
Brandin Cooks also saw an increase in volume with Kupp out and a similar drop in PPG. An alternative that could be contributing to this could also be a product of the Rams wanting to help Todd Gurley break records.
DeAndre Hopkins with *more* volume is a hard concept to take in all at once. Be sure to take your time and enjoy it properly.
Adam Thielen’s PPG is insane but he has continued to cede targets to Stefon Diggs. I love both players in all formats, but in terms of sustainability Thielen is overproducing right now. I don’t think that makes him a bad start (ever) but maybe he doesn’t catch a touchdown *and* 100 yards every week? It’s possible.
Something that seems to get misunderstood: Thielen is the Vikings’ big-play receiver right now. Diggs is getting the ball more often, and at a lower aDot. I don’t like breaking wide receivers into simple “slot” and “outside” categories but if you have to do it…
Speak of Vikings, Diggs is getting an incredibly constant and high target volume at the moment. His season-long PPG is 18 and in the last three weeks, it’s been 15.6. That’s low this season and he could have a spike week (i.e regression) coming.
Davante Adams is having himself a time with everyone else injured, he’s also overperforming expectation as much as Thielen. Put one in the win column for #TeamEliteQB though.

Risers

Quickly now, because this is fast becoming a novel. Here are the players who saw the biggest increase in opportunity in the last three weeks.

Notes:

James O’Shaughnessy joined the party of random volume on the Jaguars recently. In leagues where tight end has extra value, he’s worth a speculative add, but I wouldn’t bet on it continuing.
Tajae Sharpe remains one of the quietest re-emerging players in the league.
I said you should be more interested in David Moore last week, no matter how interested you were already. That is true again. It’s been a good year for age-adjusted production wide receivers I had hopes for, and Moore was and is definitely on that list. The Seahawks still aren’t throwing much but they do tend to get hotter as the season goes on. If the buy window is still open in your league… it’s worth finding out is all I’m saying. I’d trade a second in a heartbeat for Moore in dynasty.
Jordan Matthews‘ resurgence may have been short-lived, sadly (with Tate’s arrival).
I think Kendrick Bourne is a flash in the pan, but I’ve been wrong before.

Rookie Check In

Another rookie had a big game last week for the first time (D.J. Moore). It’s time for us to do our due diligence and check back in on our dynasty hopes and dreams.

On my very first podcast appearance, I said the 2018 wide receiver rookie class was going to be the best since 2014. I was not saying they would be as good as the 2014 class but the end of the drought was coming. It was a silly statement from someone trying to make an impression on people he’d only ever seen on Twitter and never had a conversation with.

I was right, though.

That podcast, The Open Bar, streams live on YouTube every week on Tuesdays with @JMicCheck and @FFmanbun. Check it out sometime.

Notes:

Christian Kirk‘s target share has remained stable, though his air yards saw a bump in the last three weeks. Based on his rookie profile, opportunity, and production, he is now my favorite wide receiver from this class (I had him at two before the season).
Keke Coutee is not someone I was on before the season, and he’s still not. But he has earned opportunity whenever Will Fuller was out injured. With the addition of Demaryius Thomas and a tough matchup this week, his value could fall a little if you like him long-term.
Antony Miller pulls targets from other payers whenever he’s healthy and on the field. This is a good sign for his dynasty prospects. Surprisingly Taylor Gabriel has become his biggest competition and both have been doing well, but in defined roles (Gabriel has a higher aDot). Miller’s efficiency has been low, however.
Antonio Callaway is trying to overcome a lot, and by and large, he’s stayed out of trouble, which is a good thing. But his efficiency is terrible even for a rookie who hasn’t played football in two years.
Courtland Sutton had seen a dip in opportunity over the last three weeks, losing air yards and targets to Jeff Heuerman. With the loss of Demaryius Thomas, that could well be resolved moving forward. If extra targets come his way, his recent 9.8 PPG in the last three weeks could well become very fantasy viable this year.
Courtland Sutton has very (very) inefficient this year. Check out this week’s episode of the DLF podcast @DynoCrossraods to hear me and Jake Anderson talk through his potential.
D.J. Moore gave those of us who ranked him as the number one wide receiver from this class reason to sigh with relief last week. He broke out for 129 total yards in week eight. While I feel safe saying he was held back by usage before, it’s nice to have an example of what he can do when he is targeted on the books. While I still expect Devin Funchess to be the target leader (for wide receivers) in Carolina, Moore should still hold his preseason value at a minimum

James Washington is an interesting case. While he’s been unable to earn any opportunity of note (behind Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster!) his production profile was strong enough coming out of college I still like him just as much in dynasty. Opportunity, by and large, should take care of itself.
We may learn a little more about DaeSean Hamilton with the change in the depth chart if he can recover from his sprained MCL before the season ends.
Dante Pettis has been injured, but I was not high on him coming into the season anyway based on his production profile in college. Mostly, our opinion on players who have not had a chance to play should remain static.

Here’s how I’d value rookie WRs as trade targets for next year in draft pick value. Remember, this is just me, check DLF ADP for a better idea of where to start trade offers.

Christian Kirk – First round ++.
Courtland Sutton, D.J. Moore – Mid first-round pick.
Calvin Ridley – A random first round pick.
Tre’Quan Smith, Anthony Miller – A late first round pick.
Michel Gallup, James Washington – An early second +.

While other receivers are interesting, I think these are the most promising.

Thanks for checking this out, see you next week

SERIES NOTES

Zeno James, from ffstatistics.com, has been invaluable in collecting this data on a weekly basis. Give him a follow at @theDude_Z on Twitter
I’m using a mix of data from 4for4.com and Airyards.com
CoV = The Coefficient of Variation, it measures the variance in a sample (i.e. how much change there is week to week)
Airyards = the total distance before the player caught his targets (essentially receiving yards minus yards after the catch)
Regression = a rate should return closer to “normal” or average when it is greatly over or under that average over a long sample size
WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating. It weights target share by the player’s share of air yards. It is one of the most stable (week to week and year to year) opportunity metrics and has extra utility because it describes some of the value in opportunity. It’s also useful because it can highlight potential regression when compared with fantasy points
It should be noted that the WOPR calculation is my own and imperfect when compared Airyards.com. It has a slightly different player order at times, however, it is ranking them in ranges appropriately

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Peter Howard

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Peter is a Senior writer for DLF. He live streams about FFL on twitch: twitch.tv/pahowdy as well as hosts the DLF podcast Dynasty Crossroads @DynoCrossroads

UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things

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