Golden Parachute: The Dynasty Impact of the Golden Tate Trade

Noah Ballweg

As the NFL trade deadline quickly approached Tuesday morning, the Detroit Lions dealt one of their most dynamic assets in wide receiver Golden Tate to the Philadelphia Eagles in return for a future third round draft pick. This could be a trade to again solidify the Eagles odds at capturing the NFL East title as well as helping them in pursuit of a first round bye come playoff time.

Set to be a free agent after the 2018 season, Tate’s arrival to Philadelphia comes at a much needed time for the Eagles, (4-4) who are locked in a tight division race in the NFC East. While they will surely get a boost from Tate, who is currently ranked second in yards after catch (YAC) among wide receivers with 40+ receptions, the trade speaks more to the future outlook that the Lions have on their franchise.

Prior to Tuesday, reports stated the Lions organization would need to have been “blown away” by an offer from another team in order to deal Tate – this move  suggests either the Lions have little to no confidence in their chances of making the playoffs this season or they see an increased value in the young talent they possess at wide receiver moving forward in the forms of Kenny Golladay and T.J. Jones, among others.

The trade has far reaching dynasty ramifications. Let’s explore the players affected.

Golden Tate, WR PHI

For Tate, who currently ranks as DLF’s WR32 in 2018, he is on pace for his third straight 1,000 yard receiving season and fourth in the last five years. With three touchdowns attributed to his name already this season, Tate could very well surpass his touchdown totals from the previous two years and be the saving grace to what has been rough sledding for the Eagles receiving corps. Given these numbers, he should have no trouble getting paid in the off-season as one of the most consistent and tough-to-tackle performers in the business.

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From a fantasy perspective, Tate has been a PPR dominator over the past four seasons and has continued to hold that title into the halfway point of 2018. He figures to snag a handful of the target shares from struggling Nelson Agholor, while at the same time opening the downfield plays for Alshon Jeffery. In 2018 alone, he already has 44 receptions for 517 yards and three touchdowns. Given the improving confidence of Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia offense, I would expect this offense to really take to the air once again and rally around the dynamic receiving abilities of Tate.

As a whole, the Eagles only average 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 20th amongst NFL teams, behind teams such as Denver, Miami and Oakland. With Tate averaging almost 80 yards per game this season, and 11.9 yards per reception in his career, his ability to get down the field and elude defenders will certainly be a much used trait down the stretch for the Eagles.

This season with Detroit, Tate has averaged 9.9 targets per game, mostly out of the slot. If he fills that same role in Philadelphia, Tate figures to eat into Agholor’s slot routes who has averaged 7.6 targets per game out of that role. I would predict Tate to stay somewhere in between these target ranges, but this will certainly increase if the health of Alshon Jeffery comes into question.

Tate is one of four receivers ranked in DLF’s top 35 who is over the age of 30, and thankfully has shown little to no signs of slowing down over the past few seasons. He is arguably one of my favorite targets in PPR formatted leagues and even given the team change, I expect to see the same amount of production during his tenure in Philadelphia, however long that may be.

He currently holds an ADP of 55.5 since the month of October, making him a mid-late fourth round pick in dynasty startups. This offseason should be a pivotal one for Tate who is set to be a sought after free agent. If he is able to stay within a productive, winning organization (which I suspect he will seek after), there should not be any decline in his production for the next few years. This will be something to keep an eye on, as he may see his value climb before the end of the 2018 season and would be an interesting trade piece for a young, unproven wide receiver with more upside.

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI

With just 41 catches for 372 yards and one touchdown this season, it’s fair to say Agholor has been a pretty big disappointment. In addition, he received 39 targets in his first four games of the year and just 22 in his last four as the Eagles have seemingly looked elsewhere for production. The addition of Tate is going to take a sizable target share from Agholor. As a result, he belongs on dynasty benches until further notice.

Alshon Jeffery, WR PHI, Zach Ertz, TE PHI

The addition of Tate really shouldn’t have an adverse affect on Jeffery, who will remain the Eagles primary pass catching option at receiver. Same really goes for Ertz, who has been a man child all season – don’t expect that to suddenly change. In fact, having Tate to gobble up mid-range targets could end up helping them both as Tate will undoubtedly need to be accounted for and open up some deep routes for these two.

Jordan Matthews, WR PHI

The trade for Tate puts a pin in the balloon of Matthews’ value as well. It’s unfortunate as he was coming off a nice game with four catches and 93 yards against the Jaguars on Sunday. After bouncing around the league and looking like he was going to be roster worthy again, it’s hard to see much value from Matthews at this point.

Mike Wallace, Mack Hollins, WRs PHI (IR)

The Eagles are hoping to get Wallace back later on down the road but he isn’t going to really offer much now. Hollins has always been a dynasty sleeper but the addition of Tate puts yet another roadblock in his way, at least temporarily. He’s a long-term stash at best.

Carson Wentz, QB PHI

It’s always a good thing to add talent to the roster and at worst, Tate is an upgrade over Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor.

Kenny Golladay, WR DET

The trade of Tate is another clear indication the Lions are ready to unleash Golladay on the world.  He has just three catches for 49 yards and no touchdowns in his last two games but will no longer have Tate to stand in his way. With what many believe to be WR1 potential, we’re going to see just what he can do in the last part of the season. If you hadn’t traded for him already, you’ve clearly missed your window.

TJ Jones, WR DET

Jones is going to get a nice long look the second half of the season. With just three catches for 36 yards so far, he hasn’t done much. However, the Lions will likely mix him in a little more now that Tate is gone. He’s an intriguing add to dynasty rosters at this point.

Brandon Powell, WR DET

The hidden gem to look at in this deal could be Powell, who could slide into the slot receiver role in Detroit. Powell led the Lions in receptions (16) and receiving yards (103) in the preseason, but he has been active for just one game this year. He’s worth a long look right now if you have an open roster spot.

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