Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Seven

Ryan McDowell

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

EARLY GAMES

Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers

The Titans and quarterback Marcus Mariota are in the midst of a disastrous season. Their offense is averaging only 14.5 points per game and their quarterbacks are passing for 164 yards per contest, on average. Each of those rank 30th in the league. Rumors that Mariota might not be the long-term answer for the Titans are beginning, which would be very costly for fantasy owners, and obviously the Titans franchise who is heavily invested in the former Heisman winner.

The Chargers enter this very winnable game in London expected to be without their do-everything running back Melvin Gordon, who is third in the league in rushing with 466 yards and also has 279 yards receiving. In preparation for Gordon’s absence, the Chargers promoted running back Detrez Newsome from the practice squad. He’ll join Austin Ekeler and rookie Justin Jackson as the team’s healthy backs. Ekeler has been seeing plenty of action but averages around seven carries per game and is undersized at 5’9” and 191 pounds.

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New England at Chicago

In a bit of a surprise, it appears the Patriots will play without tight end Rob Gronkowski, who did not travel with the team as he deals with a back injury. There are many players who could benefit from Gronk’s absence, including receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman. Perhaps the player who needs to step up the most in receiver Chris Hogan, who has been one of the biggest flops of the season. Hogan is just the WR63 through six weeks this year but he might be in line for more targets in the middle of the field with Gronkowski out for the game.

Over the past two games, Bears receiver Taylor Gabriel has averaged over 23 fantasy points and he now leads Chicago in receptions (27), receiving yards (303) and he’s outproduced the more-hyped Allen Robinson is essentially every area, including fantasy points. The Patriots are vulnerable, allowing five top 24 fantasy games to receivers so far this season. Gabriel has posted back to back WR6 games or better and is in line for another fantasy starter game this week.

Buffalo at Indianapolis

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Bills, who lost rookie quarterback Josh Allen to an elbow injury last week. Veteran Derek Anderson, signed to the team just over a week ago, will get the start, showing how little confidence the coaching staff has in sophomore quarterback Nathan Peterman. Anderson is not a player we should have interest in regardless of the league format, though he could help veteran wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The two played together in Carolina when Anderson was the backup. They’ve played ten games together and Benjamin’s numbers with Anderson are higher than his career averages in every receiving category.

The Colts will get wide receiver T.Y. Hilton back after missing a couple of games, though tight end Jack Doyle remains out with a hip injury. Based on the little information we’ve been told, it sounds like Doyle is not even close to returning. This gives Eric Ebron another game as the primary target at the tight end spot. Ebron is the TE2 on the season, ranking third in targets (52), fourth in receptions (30), seventh in yards (326), second in Air Yards (525) and leading all tight ends with six touchdowns. That also ties him for the league lead among all pass-catchers. Even with all of this production, many seem hesitant to credit Ebron as a top dynasty tight end moving forward.

Detroit at Miami

Well, last week was certainly a surprise. Not only did the Dolphins wait until the last minute to rule out starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, an action they are currently being investigated for by the league, but backup quarterback Brock Osweiler went crazy. Osweiler, typically the butt of fantasy football jokes, set a new career high in passing yardage and led his team to an upset victory over Chicago. With Tannehill’s injury looking like a concern and rumors leaking that his future is in doubt, this might be Osweiler’s chance to reclaim a starting job in the league.

The Lions will be without pass-catching back Theo Riddick for this game against the Dolphins. Riddick has played 40% of the team’s snaps this season and leads all running backs with 23 receptions and 138 yards on 30 targets. With Riddick out, we should expect more usage, especially in the passing game, for rookie Kerryon Johnson. Fantasy owners have grown very frustrated with the way Johnson has been used but Detroit’s coaching staff has suggested things won’t change. Maybe the Riddick injury will force a change.

Minnesota at New York Jets

The Jets are so desperate for healthy receivers that they cut veteran Terrelle Pryor rather than keeping him on the roster with a groin injury that is expected to cost him two weeks. Quincy Enunwa will also miss multiple games, leaving Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse as the top targets for rookie Sam Darnold. This could give Anderson a chance to rehabilitate his fading dynasty value.

This will mark yet another missed game for starting running back Dalvin Cook, who is leaking dynasty value as his continues to deal with a nagging hamstring injury. In his place, veteran Latavius Murray will see the bulk of the action, coming off the best game of the season, totaling 158 yards and a touchdown. As Cook loses value, Murray is becoming a reliable weekly option in fantasy lineups.

Carolina at Philadelphia

The Eagles are still missing key players in their pass and run game but with quarterback Carson Wentz now back to full health and playing at a high level, the warts are being masked. Wentz missed the first two games of the season and some dynasty owners panicked. Those concerns were not eased by a lackluster QB22 game when he made his season debut in week three. Since then, Wentz has been on point, finishing as the QB15, QB8, and QB8 over the past three weeks. Even with several players lost for the season, Wentz is back in the conversation as a top three dynasty quarterback.

Wide receiver Devin Funchess has traditionally not performed as well when veteran tight end Greg Olsen is in the lineup for Carolina. Olsen returned from his foot injury last week but Funchess still led the team with five receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have struggled to defend wide receivers, allowing six top 12 performances in the first six weeks. This is a great chance for Funchess to break that trend with Olsen in the lineup. Funchess is just the WR35 this season, based on fantasy points per game.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

The Browns made a move that dynasty players have been hoping for since the NFL Draft, trading away veteran running back Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars, opening a starting role for rookie back Nick Chubb. While his playing time has been extremely limited, playing only 7% of the snaps, he has been very impressive. Chubb has carried the ball just 16 times but has gained 173 yards and scored twice. The move also should lead to even more playing time for pass-catching back Duke Johnson, whose role has been growing in recent weeks.

In his first start of the season in week six, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston threw for 395 yards and four scores, finishing as the QB1 for the week. This week, Winston gets a tougher matchup against the Browns underrated defense, who have allowed just one top 12 performance this season to opposing quarterbacks. With a full stacked receiving corps and a suddenly competent running game, Winston could reverse that trend.

Houston at Jacksonville

The Texans will be without starting tight end Ryan Griffin, who came down with an illness late in the week. This will leave the tight end duties to a pair of rookies, Jordan Akins, a third-round pick who is already 26-years-old, and Jordan Thomas. The duo has combined for just 13 receptions for 180 yards for the season. Both are somewhat intriguing in very deep leagues with Akins and his day two draft capital the prime target.

The Jaguars made news this week as they traded for veteran running back Carlos Hyde. While Hyde won’t play in today’s game following the late-week transaction, the move alone has a ripple effect on Jaguars T.J. Yeldon and Leonard Fournette. With Fournette out again and potentially missing more games beyond this week, the Hyde trade could simply be insurance. Yeldon has been impressive overall, factoring in both the run and pass game and currently ranking as the RB10 for the season. That wasn’t enough for the Jags, who will presumably use a committee of Hyde and Yeldon until Fournette returns… if Fournette returns.

LATE GAMES

New Orleans at Baltimore

The Saints defense is soft against the pass, allowing a pair of top five games to quarterbacks and five top 24 WR games. The Saints allow over 51 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, the worst in the league. This is good news for the Ravens trio of Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead but it is Snead who could be the big story in a “revenge game” against the team who says “left a really bitter taste” in his mouth.

The Saints placed veteran wide receiver Ted Ginn on the injured reserve list with a knee injury. Ginn had played 61% of the snaps through the first month before suffering the injury, which will now be divided between rookie Tre’Quan Smith and former Bears receiver Cameron Meredith. Smith flashed in the team’s week five game with three receptions for 111 yards and two scores. Obviously, that is a huge breakout game but Smith only saw three total targets. Meredith has been dealing with a knee injury of his own but is expected to play. Both of these players could be in line for a dynasty value bump.

Dallas at Washington

Last week, rookie receiver Michael Gallup came oh so close to recording his first career touchdown reception before the play was overturned. While that didn’t count, Gallup saw a season-best 81% of the snaps after previously topping out at 58%. Gallup (and the entire Cowboys offense) has a long way to go but he is trending in the right direction.

The Redskins are hurting at the receiver position and will be without Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson as they host the Cowboys. Quarterback Alex Smith will still have veteran tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and pass-catching running back Chris Thompson should be back but this will be a huge opportunity for Josh Doctson, who has been a fantasy bust so far in his career. He is at it again this year, having dealt with nagging injuries and only catching eight of his 19 targets for a total of 68 yards. Dynasty owners have to be nearing the end of the line when it comes to Doctson but this is his chance to regain a little value. Maurice Harris and Brian Quick will be behind Doctson at receiver.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco

The Rams will be without receiver Cooper Kupp, who is expected to miss multiple weeks with an ACL sprain. We know Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods will continue to be the top two options in the passing game but Kupp’s absence could also benefit receiver Josh Reynolds and tight end Gerald Everett. After barely even touching the field in the season’s first month, Reynolds has been the go-to option with Kupp and Cooks missing time with injuries.

When starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season with a torn ACL, most fantasy players were ready to give up on the 49ers altogether. His replacement, C.J. Beathard has been very impressive, with weekly fantasy ranks of QB18, QB10, and QB16. He’s not quite to the level of becoming a reliable weekly starter but he is already a player to consider in superflex leagues. Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus pointed out this week that Beathard has averaged over 21 fantasy points per start in the past two seasons, which ranks sixth in the league.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cincinnati at Kansas City

The Chiefs allow a league-high 36 fantasy points per game to the running back position and the Bengals will be without veteran backup Giovani Bernard for the third straight game. This means second-year starter Joe Mixon is in line for a huge game. Of course, for that to happen, the Bengals need to hang with the high-scoring Chiefs. Mixon has finished as the RB11 in each of the past two games since he returned from an early season injury.

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has already seen his dynasty value rise this season, thanks to his strong play on the field as well as the misfortune of other tight ends. While Kelce has been somewhat overshadowed by his quarterback Patrick Mahomes and wideout Tyreek Hill, he has put together five straight games as the TE15 or better after a rough season-opener. The Bengals defense has been inconsistent this year but they have allowed the third-most fantasy points in the league to opposing tight ends.

MONDAY NIGHT

New York Giants at Atlanta

The Giants will welcome back tight end Evan Engram after he missed three games with an ACL injury. With running back Saquon Barkley doing it all and quarterback Eli Manning struggling to get his playmakers the ball down the field, we have to question how much of an impact Engram will make. The good news is the Falcons have allowed four TE1 games in six weeks and their defense has been decimated by injuries.

This week, the Falcons placed running back Devonta Freeman on the injured reserve list after he underwent groin surgery. While Freeman is a candidate to return late in the season, the Falcons are expected to roll with the duo of Tevin Coleman and rookie Ito Smith. Coleman has disappointed in what is likely his final season with the Falcons while Smith has been a pleasant surprise. The next two months will be a huge opportunity for both backs and dynasty players could have the chance to sell both of these players for a nice profit if they can take advantage of this opportunity at extended playing time.

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ryan mcdowell