Dynasty Stock Market: 2018 Rookie Draft Re-Do

Ryan McDowell Posted On October 20, 2018

Unbelievably, the 2018 fantasy football regular season is at its midway point. This is a prime time for fantasy players for many reasons. While it is crucial to look ahead to the remainder of the season, making decisions about your team’s status, it is also a chance to be reflective. In dynasty leagues, this often centers around the most recent rookie class. Just a few weeks into the season and many things have already changed. The player value we were so confident in during rookie drafts has now been thrown for a loop.

With this in mind, I recently put together a crew of DLF writers to take part in a 2018 dynasty rookie draft do-over. It can be difficult enough to aptly alter the value of veteran players when we get new information but it is even more of a challenge to navigate the value of these rookies with no real track record.

This mock draft was based on a PPR league with multiple flex options and one starting quarterback.

Round One

1.01 – Matt Price selects Saquon Barkley, RB NYG

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 1

The easiest pick in any rookie draft I can ever remember was grabbing Giants running back Saquon Barkley with the top pick. Through the first six weeks of his NFL career, he is living up to the hype. Barkley can be considered as the top overall pick in dynasty drafts, not only rookie drafts.

1.02 – Bradley Ylitalo selects Derrius Guice, RB WAS

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 2.3

Redskins running back Derrius Guice suffered a torn ACL in the pre-season yet has retained his dynasty value. That’s partly due to the early struggles of some of the previous top picks in rookie drafts. While veteran Adrian Peterson has played well for Washington, there is little doubt this is Guice’s job once he’s healthy in 2019.

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1.03 – Jake Anderson selects Sony Michel, RB NE

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 5

After an injury scare to begin the season, Patriots first-round pick Sony Michel has been playing at a high level for New England, though he’s not been involved in the passing game at all. This not only limits his weekly fantasy production but also his long-term upside.

1.04 – Joseph Nammour selects Nick Chubb, RB CLE

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 5.1

I see this selection as the end of a tier as Guice, Michel and Browns rookie Nick Chubb all being valued in the same range. Others who were being drafted at this range during the off-season have seen their value plummet. It is worth noting that this draft took place prior to the Browns trading away veteran Carlos Hyde, paving the way for Chubb to see increased playing time.

1.05 – Peter Howard selects Christian Kirk, WR ARI

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 12.2

This pick was a bit of a surprise. Cardinals rookie receiver Christian Kirk has played well and has essentially been the WR1 for Arizona as veteran Larry Fitzgerald has struggled but others have flashed bigger and brighter. Regardless, if you were a believer in Kirk during the off-season, he’s done nothing to change your mind.

1.06 – Travis May selects Kerryon Johnson, RB DET

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 9.2

Lions running back Kerryon Johnson is one of the more frustrating rookies this season, though it’s through no fault of his own. Johnson has outrushed his teammate LeGarrette Blount 286-117 despite receiving only three more carries than the veteran. While all the numbers suggest Johnson should be playing a larger role, the Lions coaching staff seems satisfied with the current game plan. If Johnson does see an uptick in usage, his dynasty value could climb even higher.

1.07 – Jacob Feldman selects Calvin Ridley, WR ATL

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 9.7

Falcons rookie receiver Calvin Ridley is one of five pass-catchers in the league with six touchdowns this season and there was even a brief discussion that Ridley should be valued ahead of his touchdown-less teammate Julio Jones. Ridley flashed with a two-game explosion early in the season but is still serving as the third receiver in the Falcons offense.

1.08 – Ryan McDowell selects Courtland Sutton, WR DEN

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 12.1

There was a presumption that Broncos rookie receiver Courtland Sutton would be “redshirted” this season, playing behind veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. That hasn’t been the case at all and Sutton’s dynasty value is climbing as a result.

1.09 – Kyle Holden selects D.J. Moore, WR CAR

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 8.1

Panthers receiver D.J. Moore was considered the WR1 through the pre-season but has had a slow start to his career, allowing the other three rookie wideouts to close the value gap or even overtake Moore in value.

1.10 – George Kritikos selects Rashaad Penny, RB SEA

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 4

Dynasty players were shocked when the Seahawks chose running back Rashaad Penny in the first-round. That vaulted his dynasty value and made him a near-consensus top five rookie pick. Things have not gone well for Penny as he’s fallen behind Chris Carson and even veteran Mike Davis at times.

1.11 – James Koutoulas selects Ronald Jones, RB TB

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 6

If things are not going well for Penny, the start to the season has been near disastrous for Buccaneers back Ronald Jones. After being pegged as a healthy scratch for the first few games, Jones was finally active and led the team in rushing yards in week four. By week six, following the bye, things were back to normal as Jones barely saw the field.

1.12 – Pete Lawrence selects Royce Freeman, RB DEN

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 7.7

I have to admit, I was surprised to see Broncos running back Royce Freeman fall behind both Penny and Jones in this mock. All three had clearly lost value since the season began but Freeman has seen plenty of action, serving in a near 50/50 backfield committee while Jones and Penny have failed to gain a significant role.

Round Two

2.01 (Price) – James Washington, WR PIT

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 17.1

2.02 (Ylitalo) – Baker Mayfield, QB CLE

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 19.4

2.03 (Anderson) – Phillip Lindsay, RB DEN

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: N/A

2.04 (Nammour) – Anthony Miller, WR CHI

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 15.6

2.05 (Howard) – Nyheim Hines, RB IND

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 21

2.06 (May) – Josh Rosen, QB ARI

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 23

2.07 (Feldman) – Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 27

2.08 (McDowell) – Keke Coutee, WR HOU

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 35.6

2.09 (Holden) – Antonio Callaway, WR CLE

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 28.8

2.10 (Kritikos) – Dante Pettis, WR SF

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 21.6

2.11 (Koutoulas) – Michael Gallup, WR DAL

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 14.4

2.12 (Lawrence) – Sam Darnold, QB NYJ

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 26.4

The story of the second round was the rise of undrafted running back Phillip Lindsay and Texans wide receiver Keke Coutee, two of the biggest rookie risers over the past six weeks. Dynasty owners often struggle with valuing early-career breakout players who lack draft capital, which is the case with Lindsay. You can make a strong case that Lindsay should be drafted ahead of his teammate Freeman, as well as Jones and Penny. Coutee, along with Tre’Quan Smith and Antonio Callaway, have given us glimpses of their upside, causing them to climb into the second round. Any or all of the trio of receivers could continue to gain value and even crack the top 12 overall.

Round Three

3.01 (Price) – Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR GB

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 52.1

3.02 (Ylitalo) – Mike Gesicki, TE MIA

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 17.1

3.03 (Anderson) – Dallas Goedert, TE PHI

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 25.1

3.04 (Nammour) – Ito Smith, RB ATL

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 40.1

3.05 (Howard) – Equanimeous St. Brown, WR GB

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 30.6

3.06 (May) – Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 20

3.07 (Feldman) – Hayden Hurst, TE BAL

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 25.4

3.08 (McDowell) – Chase Edmonds, RB ARI

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 37.5

3.09 (Holden) – Kalen Ballage, RB MIA

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 21.2

3.10 (Kritikos) – DaeSean Hamilton, WR DEN

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 36.1

3.11 (Koutoulas) – John Kelly, RB LAR

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 35.6

3.12 (Lawrence) – Jordan Wilkins, RB IND

Pre-Season Rookie ADP: 32

The third round has a few gems, some who have dropped from a higher pre-season draft position and others who have gained value over the past six weeks. The first half of the round is a good reminder of the depth of the class, including tight ends Dallas Goedert and Mike Gesicki and quarterback Lamar Jackson. Falcons rookie Ito Smith and the pair of Packers receivers Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have all gained dynasty value as they’ve gotten an opportunity at early playing time due to injuries to their respective teammates.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.