Dynasty Diatribe: Move on from Sammy Watkins’ Career of Injury and Inconsistency
We all have that friend or family member who we deeply care for but cannot be relied on for anything. These people tend to be the life of the party… when they don’t cancel on you at the last minute. Whether it’s attending a gathering, assistance in moving, or coming to your destination wedding in Vegas (he cancelled the morning of his flight), you can never believe these folks will follow through until they are physically right in front of you. These kings/queens of unreliability usually aren’t acting out of malice, but are not to be trusted just the same.
Enter Sammy Watkins. Watkins is the fantasy football version of the unreliable friend as he’s left many a dynasty owner holding the bag come Tuesday morning after underperforming on Sunday. Those who have been paying attention know this is his modus operandi, and if you’re still in denial, it’s time to see the light!
Early Career
After a collegiate career that saw him post gaudy numbers (240/3,391/27), Watkins was the fourth overall pick of the Buffalo Bills in the 2014 NFL Draft. The Clemson product had a statistically successful rookie year as he led the team in targets (128), receiving yards (982), and touchdown catches (6) finishing as WR27 in PPR leagues. Despite the strong numbers, Watkins flashed the weekly inconsistency which would become a hallmark of his career as he failed to reach ten PPR points in nine of 16 games played.
While missing three games with a calf and ankle sprain, the 2015 season was his best season to date in terms of statistical production and consistency. Watkins used his team-high 96 targets in 2015 to pace Buffalo in every receiving category (60/1,047/9) and scored double-digit PPR points in nine of his 13 games. When the dust settled at the end of the season, Watkins was the WR20 in PPR leagues and appeared to turn a corner in his career. Many a fantasy footballer in dynasty and redraft leagues alike (hand raised) pegged the Buffalo wide receiver for big things in 2016. If we only knew how wrong we were in our optimism.
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2016: The Beginning of a Troubling Trend
On April 23, 2016, the former Tiger suffered a pedal fracture in his left foot during off-season training which required a screw to be inserted. Watkins was ready for the start of the season, but labored through the first two games with six receptions for 63 yards on 11 targets. Then, during a walkthrough prior to the Bills’ week three contest, a teammate stepped on his surgically repaired left foot resulting in a trip to Injured Reserve and eight games missed.
The 2016 season was a lost one for Watkins as he was only able to convert his 52 targets into 28 receptions for 430 yards, two touchdowns, and failed to hit the ten point PPR benchmark in five of eight contests. Worse yet, those true believers who trusted the Bills wide receiver enough to start him in their week 15 semifinal matchup had their faith rewarded with a two point clunker of a performance.
2017: New Team, Same Result
The moment the 2016 campaign ended on January 1, 2017, Watkins had two new screws inserted into his troubled left foot after multiple recovery setbacks. In August of 2017, the Bills seemingly had enough of the inconsistent, injury-riddled roller-coaster as they traded the wide receiver to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for E.J. Gaines and a second-round draft pick. This was not only a fresh start for Watkins, but the Rams appeared to be without a true number one wide receiver and the Sammy hype train left the station.
Once again, the production on the field failed to live up to the hype as Watkins (39/593/8) was outplayed in the passing game by Cooper Kupp (62/869/5), Todd Gurley (64/788/6), and Robert Woods (56/781/5). The Rams had one of the most potent passing attacks in the league, but their new wide receiver continued his unfortunate boom/bust trend as he would follow up a 28.6 performance with a frustrating 2.7 points the next week and was unable to reach the double-digit threshold in seven of 15 games.
Sammy’s homicide of fantasy teams in weekly head-to-head matchups reached a fever point again during the week 15 fantasy semifinals. His abomination of a game (3.4 PPR points) against the Seahawks killed the championship dreams of many a dynasty owner.
The 2018 Season: Same Old Story
The Watkins fanboys nearly had a heart attack this past March when the Kansas City Chiefs gave Watkins a three-year, $48 million contract ($30 million guaranteed) to pair him with the upstart gunslinger Patrick Mahomes. While many in the dynasty football community got a tad too excited over Sammy’s potential in KC, we here at DLF realized the Clemson speedster was valued much too high.
Through five games entering week six, Watkins has experienced the weekly peaks and pitfalls we’ve come to expect. In weeks two, three, and five the new Chiefs wide receiver had 19.1, 18.5, and 13.8 PPR points respectively while scoring 5.1 on opening weekend and dropping a goose-egg in week four after injuring his hamstring.
If there was ever a perfect scenario to highlight the maddening week-to-week inconsistency of Mr. Watkins, it was this past Sunday night. The Kansas City Chiefs scored 40 points in an instant-thriller against the defending AFC champion New England Patriots where wunderkind Patrick Mahomes threw for 352 yards and four touchdowns. Yet, even though he was on the field for ALL 54 of the offensive snaps, Sammy only caught two of his four targets for a measly 18 yards.
It’s time to face the facts. Sammy Watkins is an injury-prone, boom/bust WR3 and starting him in a head-to-head fantasy/dynasty football league is akin to playing Russian roulette. Still holding out hope for Watkins to reach his potential? Well, a closer look at the data from the past few seasons might change your mind.
Weekly (In)Consistency 2016-2018: Sammy Watkins vs. DeSean Jackson
If you were to ask the average dynasty owner which wide receiver has the highest floor/lowest ceiling in an average week the answer would be DeSean Jackson. With his blazing speed and hesitancy to run routes over the middle, DJax has been the poster child for scoring either 20+ points or two in any given fantasy matchup. Yet, when we compare Jackson’s weekly performances from the 2016 season through Sunday with Watkins’, we find an interesting trend.
First and foremost, thanks to Bob Lung and my redraft writing home of Big Guy Fantasy Sports for providing the consistency data. While the Bucs wide receiver is perceived in the dynasty community as one of the riskier weekly starts at the receiver position, it’s interesting to see Watkins has been less reliable over the last two-plus years.
Now, before the legion of Sammy truthers declare a Twitter fatwa on me, I need to be clear about one thing. I’m not saying DeSean Jackson at age 31 has more dynasty value than 25-year-old Sammy Watkins. However, there’s such a stark difference in the current valuations of DJax (October DLF ADP: 168.75, WR70) and Watkins (October DLF ADP: 43, WR23) a smart and savvy dynasty owner must take advantage.
Watkins Career ADP and Current Trade Vale
ADP graph from Watkins’ DLF Player Page.
The fact Watkins ADP hasn’t fallen out of the fourth round at any point in the last four years is simply astonishing. The only explanation is there’s a certain segment of the dynasty community who have some sort of sadomasochistic desire that needs to be fulfilled each weekend. Okay, that’s probably not true. However, it’s almost criminal for the rest of us not to pillage the teams of these sorry souls still holding out hope for Watkins to become a consistent WR2.
If you’re a reformed Watkins apologist and/or got stuck with him on an orphan roster, now is the time to cash in on his fourth-round value. The next time Watkins has a boom game, SELL! According to the DLF trade finder, Watkins had been traded for a 2019 first and second round rookie pick as well as a 2019 first and Christian Kirk after strong performances in weeks three and five. If you’re a rebuilding squad look to acquire a first round pick for next year and an additional future asset like Kirk or a pick.
The former Ram was also traded straight up for Mark Ingram after week five and contenders should target a player who can help them win immediately like Ingram. Please remember, the specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations
Conclusion
Those who thought Watkins would cut into Tyreek Hill’s value and become the WR1 in KC should probably take some accountability for their cold take. Hill is thriving while it’s the same old song and dance for our hero from Death Valley. Sammy is again in a prolific aerial attack, but is the third (and possibly fourth behind Kareem Hunt) option and that won’t change unless Hill or Kelce miss time. There are three things you can count on in life; death, taxes, and Sammy Watkins being an oft-injured, high ceiling/low floor WR3. Get something of value in return before his value craters and even the truthers don’t want him on their roster.
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