Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Six
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Veteran running back Devonta Freeman has suffered yet another injury and will miss today’s game. This is another chance for Tevin Coleman to produce at a high level, potentially boosting his value as he enters free agency following the season. Coleman produced fantasy ranks of RB13, RB27, and RB28 before Freeman returned a week ago. This game is expected to be a high-scoring affair which could benefit Coleman with scoring opportunities as well as an increased role in the passing game.
This divisional matchup is huge for the Buccaneers and a major spot for three key members of the Tampa offense. Quarterback Jameis Winston makes his first start of the year after serving a suspension and then taking over in the second half of the team’s week four blowout loss to the Bears. Facing the injury-plagued Falcons defense, Winston is in a prime spot to explode for fantasy players. This will also be another chance for rookie back Ronald Jones, who finally saw the field in week four, leading the team with ten carries for 29 yards. Finally, tight end O.J. Howard returns much earlier than expected from a leg injury which muddies the expectations for both Howard and veteran Cameron Brate.
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Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Bengals sophomore running back Joe Mixon returned to the field last week and looked as dominant as ever. After totaling 115 yards and a touchdown and playing a season-high 78% of the team’s snaps, Mixon now ranks as the RB19 on the season despite missing two games. Not only is Mixon playing well but he is rapidly gaining dynasty value as other young backs, including Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and even Kareem Hunt, have struggled out of the gate. Mixon is already up to RB9 in our latest dynasty ADP and still has room to grow.
The Steelers offense has been clicking most weeks, producing top fantasy scorers at all positions, as they usually do. One disappointment though has been rookie receiver James Washington. After pushing veteran Justin Hunter to the bench early in the season, the situation looked promising for Washington to make a first-year impact as so many other Pittsburgh receivers have done before him. His playing time has dwindled though. After playing 81% of the team’s week two snaps, that number was down to just 57% last week and he went without a catch for the first time since the season-opener.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland
Rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield has clearly established a nice rapport with wide receiver Jarvis Landry and even tight end David Njoku, who are consistently the team’s target leaders. The Browns recently lost receivers Derrick Willies and Rashard Higgins, leaving them thin. It will be interesting to see how the team uses rookie receiver Antonio Callaway, who has struggled since being given an increased opportunity. After exploding with a surprise 3/81/1 line in week two, Callaway has committed multiple errors in big spots and failed to break double-digit fantasy points.
Backup running back Austin Ekeler has been one of the pleasant surprises for the Chargers and fantasy players this year, showing standalone value and showing he’s much more than a Melvin Gordon handcuff. The bad news is that Ekeler has been trending down with fantasy finishes of RB7, RB20, RB40, RB23, RB24 through five games. Ekeler has only exceeded ten touches one time this season, making him a risky fantasy option. He’s second in the league in fantasy points per snap, a sign that regression is coming.
Buffalo at Houston
I say it every week. There’s very little to get excited about when it comes to the Buffalo Bills. With that said, all dynasty owners should be monitoring their backfield usage this week. Starting running back LeSean McCoy, who finally produced a solid game last week, has been the subject of trade rumors, primarily with his former team, the Philadelphia Eagles. Bills head coach Sean McDermott turned down the chance to deny the rumors when given a chance. That could mean the team “showcases” McCoy in an effort to finalize a deal or it could go the other way. Getting McCoy hurt is the last thing the team would want so an increase in snaps for backups Chris Ivory or Marcus Murphy is a possibility.
This is a big week for Texans wideout Will Fuller. After he played so well upon his return from a preseason hamstring injury, he reinjured his leg, costing him playing time in week four. This led to an increased role for rookie receiver Keke Coutee, who took advantage in a major way. In week five, Fuller played a minor role, drawing just three targets. While the touchdown relationship he’s built with quarterback Deshaun Watson is impressive, Fuller is also building a reputation as an injury risk and it won’t take many more games for dynasty owners to begin favoring Coutee over Fuller.
Chicago at Miami
When Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake entered the league, he was viewed as a complementary, third-down back. That’s why his run at the end of 2017 when he worked as the clear workhorse was so surprising. Maybe we should’ve expected the team’s 2018 backfield to play out just as it has, with veteran Frank Gore taking over as the primary ball carrier while Drake focuses more on catching passes out of the backfield. Last week, Drake tied a career-high with 11 targets and set a new personal best of seven receptions. Only eight running backs have seen a larger market share of team targets than Drake.
The Bears return from their week five bye and fantasy players have many questions about the Chicago backfield. In the first three games, starter Jordan Howard not only carried the load as the primary ball carrier but also was involved in the passing game. That changed in week four when Howard was out-touched and outproduced by Tarik Cohen in Chicago’s dominant win over Tampa Bay. Perhaps that was all just part of the game plan but we should know more as the Bears face the Dolphins.
Arizona at Minnesota
When they face the Cardinals, the Vikings will welcome back second-year running back Dalvin Cook, who has been in and out of the lineup with a nagging hamstring injury. Cook will reportedly be on a “pitch count,” expected to play about half the team’s offensive snaps. Oddly enough, Cook’s dynasty value actually rose after he suffered a torn ACL a year ago but it is fading now. His current ADP of 23 is lower than it was a year ago after he’d suffered the injury.
The Cardinals are obviously off to a rough start this year but they are coming off their first win of the season. Running back David Johnson has been producing at a reasonable level, though he’s been very reliant on touchdowns to keep up his fantasy numbers. The real concern for Cardinals fans and fantasy players has to be veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who has struggled through weekly fantasy finishes of WR29, WR81, WR93, WR78, and WR77. While part of those struggles can be tied to a hamstring injury as well as the team’s quarterback woes before benching veteran Sam Bradford. Regardless of the reason, we have to begin considering if Fitzgerald will ever turn things around.
Indianapolis at New York Jets
Currently the RB8 on the season, Jets running back Isaiah Crowell is expected to play today despite an ankle injury that cost him the majority of practice time during the week. Crowell is currently ranked fourth in rushing with 390 yards and is tied for second with five rushing touchdowns. Last week, Crowell rushed for 219 yards on only 15 carries. In a nice matchup, I’m interested to see if the veteran back can end his every other week pattern that has seen him mix in three top ten performances with weekly finishes of RB46 and RB65.
For the first time since week two, the Colts are expected to have running back Marlon Mack on the field. Mack has struggled with multiple injuries this season, costing him four games in the young season. In his absence, rookie running back Nyheim Hines has developed into one of the top pass-catching backs in the league for fantasy players, currently ranking among the top five in targets and receptions at his position. In week two, when Mack drew the start, Hines saw just one target and played a season-low 39% of the snaps. It would make sense that Hines has shown enough over the past two weeks to keep his role but that might be assuming too much.
Seattle at Oakland
Jets running back Crowell isn’t the only player with an on again, off again fantasy game log. Raiders receiver Amari Cooper’s weekly fantasy finishes this season, in order, are WR82, WR13, WR87, WR7, and WR101. Obviously, if this trend continues, it should be a successful trip to London for Cooper and the Raiders. Cooper’s dynasty value has already taken a major hit as he continues his frustrating play that was on display throughout the 2017 season. Cooper’s current ADP of 33 is the lowest of his career.
Dynasty players are quickly growing concerned about the outlook of veteran receiver Doug Baldwin of the Seahawks. After missing two games with a knee injury, Baldwin returned to the field in week four with a reasonable five receptions for 41 yards. In last week’s win, Baldwin drew only one target. As a result of these early-season struggles, Baldwin’s dynasty value has plummeted, all the way down to 51, which is lower than it’s been in over two full years. Baldwin needs to get on track to maintain any type of dynasty value.
Carolina at Washington
This will be a challenging game for the Redskins. They will reportedly be without their leading receiver running back Chris Thompson as well as slot man Jamison Crowder. Receivers Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson are also questionable. That leaves tight end Jordan Reed as the top target for quarterback Alex Smith. Reed is second on the team in targets (22), receptions (15) and receiving yards (189). Reed’s value has taken a huge hit over the past year but as he remains healthy, his dynasty ADP is steadily climbing.
The Panthers are expected to have veteran tight end Greg Olsen back on the field after missing three games with a foot injury. This is a surprising and impressive recovery timeline for Olsen at a time when the Panthers and fantasy owners need it most. The tight end position has been ravaged by injuries and disappointing performances. While expectations should be tempered for Olsen, he is immediately in the conversation as a fantasy starter.
Late Games
Los Angeles Rams at Denver
It has been a frustrating year for rookie running backs. Outside of the generational talent of Saquon Barkley, the other seven rookie backs who were drafted in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts have combined for just one RB1 game and two RB2 games. Broncos rookie back Royce Freeman has yet to finish as a weekly top 24 scorer and his usage is actually declining. In week five, he had a season-low eight touches despite vows from head coach Vance Joseph to get more opportunities for Freeman. The Rams are actually somewhat soft against opposing running backs, allowing five top 24 performances already this season.
In week five, the Rams played much of the game without two-thirds of their dynamic wide receiver corps as Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp both suffered concussions. In their absence, receiver Josh Reynolds picked up the slack. Both Kupp and Cooks are expected to return to the field against the Broncos though I am interested if the Rams continue to use Reynolds in any type of serious capacity. If so, he’ll be a player to scoop off of dynasty waiver wires, if it’s not too late.
Jacksonville at Dallas
Last week, the Jaguars lost starting tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins to an injury and backup Niles Paul took over in the second half, finishing with seven receptions for 65 yards. This marked just the third time in his career Paul has seen more than five targets in a game. In that limited sample size, Paul averages seven receptions for 77 yards. In a time where fantasy players are desperate for tight end production, Paul is worth watching.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott currently ranks as the QB26 for the season with a season-best weekly rank of QB17. This week, Prescott faces the league’s best defense as a breaking point approaches. For better or worse, the Cowboys have no other serious options behind Prescott, meaning his job is likely safe for the remainder of the season. In his first 24 starts, Prescott finished as a QB1 17 times, representing 71%. In the 13 games since, the quarterback has only one QB1 game, only 8% of the time.
Baltimore at Tennessee
Last week, running back Alex Collins played a season-low 31% of the snaps for the Ravens. The team’s “starter” who was among the safest backs in the league for much of 2017 has struggled in every facet of the game this year. He’s not catching passes and has now lost red zone touches to Javorius Allen. Until he proves otherwise, Collins is essentially unusable in fantasy lineups and is bleeding dynasty value.
One of the biggest disappointments of the season, in my opinion, has been Titans tight end Jonnu Smith. The unfortunate week one injury to veteran tight end Delanie Walker led to a starting role for the second-year tight end but he has almost no production to show for it. Dynasty owners often chase young tight ends, just hoping they can get a chance at more playing time. That’s what has happened with Smith and he’s failed to make the most of it. He’s failed to catch a pass in two straight games and only has two receptions for 21 yards on the season. He has yet to catch a pass from quarterback Marcus Mariota and is in danger of hitting waiver wires even in deeper dynasty leagues.
Sunday Night
Kansas City at New England
The Patriots have eased wide receiver Josh Gordon into the lineup over the past two weeks but now facing an easily beatable Chiefs defense and with wideout Chris Hogan banged up with a leg injury, we could be in store for a Gordon breakout game. The former Browns receiver has still seen just three total targets through two games with New England but came up huge with a 34-yard touchdown.
One of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend is speedy receiver Tyreek Hill against the Patriots defense. After the first two weeks, Hill ranked as the WR2 but he’s only the WR39 over the past three games. With so many options on offense, it will be impossible to produce consistent fantasy stat lines for each of their stars but this could be the week Hill gets back on track.
Monday Night
San Francisco at Green Bay
A week ago, receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison missed the Packers game with injuries. This allowed rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown to serve as prime targets for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The two rookies combined for ten receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown. Both Cobb and Allison are considered game-time decisions for the Monday night tilt and I am very interested to see how the four receivers’ playing time will be shared once everyone is fully healthy. There’s a chance we might have to wait until after the Packers week eight bye to see this.
The 49ers continue to deal with injury issues. After already losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon to season-ending injuries, the team is also dealing with short-term injuries to running back Matt Brieda, wide receiver Trent Taylor and others. The Taylor injury specifically could open the door for rookie receiver Richie James to play an increased role. The seventh-rounder has just one reception on the season but that should change against the Packers on Monday Night Football.
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