Football Solstice, Part Three
Eight wins.
That’s the goal. With eight wins, you have virtually assured a playoff berth. Teams sneak in with seven wins on occasion, and even fewer teams get in with six wins after tiebreakers are calculated. In order to avoid the hassle of relying on chance and league tiebreaker settings: eight wins.
A quarter of the way through the NFL season and a third of the way through the fantasy regular season, eight wins either looks like a certainty, a likelihood, a possibility, or a longshot. But with nine games left to play, eight wins is within reach for absolutely anyone, regardless of records. Now is the time to make a move to ensure that you 1) get to the playoffs, where anything can happen, and 2) prepare for the playoffs, where anything can happen.
If you’re halfway to the magic number, you can look ahead to the playoffs to avoid the top seed early exit that seems to occur every year in every league. If you’re winning as often as you’re losing, you can break that trend and etch out the extra couple of wins that put you over the top. And if your season started with a failure to launch, there’s nothing wrong with bowing out gracefully… but there’s also nothing wrong with doubling down.
All you have to do is get there. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Just get to the playoffs.
Eight wins.
In case you missed them, make sure you check out part one, focusing on teams with 4-0 or 3-1 records and part two, focusing on teams with 2-2 records.
Record: 1-3/0-4
Directive
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There are two ways to take it at this point, and both are equally valid: either reload quick and make a hard push for the playoffs, or embrace a lost season and start rebuilding. At 1-3, we can afford two more losses in the next nine weeks, and an 0-4 record really only allows for one more loss. Regardless of the path we choose, the days of waiting on Le’Veon Bell to report for duty and Leonard Fournette to get healthy are over. They no longer belong on this roster.
If we’re going to reload, it means selling those longer-term pieces for players who help win right now, and turning over virtually the entire starting lineup. If the decision is to rebuild, we’re looking for young players at longer-lasting positions (wide receiver, quarterback to a slightly lesser extent, and tight end as an even lower priority; running backs do very little for us in a rebuilding effort) and, of course, draft picks.
Who to trade with
Those .500 teams in the middle of the standings may have some depth or young talent to cash in, but the primary targets are at the bookends of the standings. The 4-0/3-1 “haves” and the 1-3/0-4 “have nots” are all in play, based on their directives through four weeks.
The teams at the top are trying to get away from players whose usefulness will soon expire, and load up on players who will help them win later in the season. This means they’re unloading players who have been productive so far and still have some productivity yet to come, which is exactly what you need if you’re trying to make a playoff push. They’re also buying players with more long-term value, like those running backs you’ve been stashing and waiting for while you took your early season lumps. This is where you swap Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson for Melvin Gordon or Christian McCaffrey and start a win streak.
The teams in the same situation as your zero/one win team can also contribute to your cause, as long as they chose the opposite cause. If you’re rebuilding, find the owner that feels their bad luck is behind them and they’re making a run at the playoffs. They can afford to send you some young core players and draft picks for your win-now players. If you’re the one taking a shot at the playoffs, those rebuilding teams will have the assets to help you load up to shoot the moon.
Who to trade for/away
For a win-now mentality and a shot at the playoffs, ask about the recommended “trade-aways” in the 4-0/3-1 section. Todd Gurley, Carson Wentz, Kenny Golladay, Carlos Hyde, Ben Roethlisberger… they all have tricky matchups in the fantasy playoffs, making them expendable for the playoff-bound teams, but when the goal is simply getting to the playoffs after an 0-4 start, that group will give you a chance to start a winning tradition in short order. Other targets who may be available include:
- QBs: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford.
- RBs: Marshawn Lynch, Phillip Lindsay, Jay Ajayi.
- WRs: Davante Adams, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett.
Sometimes bad luck brings us to the crossroads, and sometimes the writing is on the wall to just embrace the suck. There’s nothing wrong with going into rebuild mode; in fact, the sooner you embrace it, the faster it will be. Here are some targets for a team that is ready to punt the season and go through a little “productive struggle,” – as Ryan McDowell would say – for the greater good:
- QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Chad Kelly, Teddy Bridgewater.
- RBs: they aren’t really long-term assets, but guys with significant upside going into 2019 include Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Chris Warren, and Ronald Jones.
- WRs: Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, Zay Jones, Antonio Calloway, Christian Kirk, John Ross, Taywan Taylor, Justin Watson.
… And, of course, draft picks. Don’t let those contending teams sell you their likely late draft picks for early draft pick prices, but accumulating draft picks makes the rebuilding effort more robust.
For everyone else, the end of the first quarter is the perfect time for a realignment. Awareness is crucial, an objective roster audit is a necessity, and patience is no longer a virtue. Eight wins is within reach for those with the vision and foresight to make adjustments now!
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