Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Four
Welcome the target share article for week four. I’m hoping to stop getting this out so late on in the week from now on. To do that, I’m starting to streamline the process from here on out. After all, we can’t look at every opportunity, for every player, every week. So, I’m introducing “The Coefficient of Variation” into the target share and WOPR metrics table.
If you’re not familiar with this calculation, in short, it tells you how much each opportunity measurement changed on a week-to-week basis. The closer to zero it is the less change – or variance – has taken place.
By including it this week along with weekly target share and WOPR, I’m hoping it will give you some idea of what it tells us.
Let’s dive right in.
Top 12 Wide receivers in Opportunity
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As we saw last week, Corey Davis and Allen Robinson continue to be the two biggest underperformers at the wide receiver position.
Corey Davis straightened himself out a little in week four. So his points per game is a little closer to what we’d expect. But there’s still room for more.
Allen Robinson’s lack of production could be a result of his target share and WOPR changing so much week to week. He has had more variance in his target share and WOPR than any other top 12 player (his CoV is higher in both categories.) Hopefully, after the bye week, it can settle down.
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both look like they could see a boost to their points per game output in the coming weeks. I would definitely expect this level of target share and air yards to continue for both of them.
Top 12 Tight ends in Opportunity
If Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz were wide receivers they would rank 15th and 17th respectively in opportunity. They are also the only two players who have started all four games that have a reasonable CoV in both targets and WOPR at the position. In other words, they are the only players who can be trusted on a week-to-week basis right now.
George Kittle, despite his change at quarterback, seems to be very close to Kelce and Ertz’s in terms of overall opportunity and consistency.
Geoff Swaim is the Dallas tight end to own (if you want to own any Dallas receiving options, that is).
Ricky Seals-Jones continues to offer a nice balance of expected production and opportunity. Even with Josh Rosen under center, he had a target share similar to other top-12 players. His points per game is very low compared to his peers with similar volume.
The Under Producers
By evaluating targets share, WOPR, and aDot, I have created a model to highlight players who are under producing with their opportunity the most right now in fantasy points. Below are the top results. I’d either expect to bounce up (in PPG) or a reduction in opportunity moving forward.
These are potentially the buy-low players, or potential regression candidates if you looking for a tiebreaker in a start/sit decision. 
Notes
- I will not be the first one off the Larry Fitzgerald hype train or boat. However, between the struggles, team changes, and the competition of Christian Kirk, his production has been suffering.
- Corey Davis is still in for some great games at some point. This week, he faces the Bills.
- Even as the second target on the team, Devin Funchess should see a boost to production moving forward
- Jarvis Landry has a legitimate NFL-level QB, volume, and a history of fantasy production. I’d consider him a target in dynasty.
- I don’t think Josh Doctson and Kelvin Benjamin’s names being next to each other is a cosmic sign. But I’d play it that way (sell, fade, cut).
- I still believe in Allen Robinson and Randall Cobb.
The Over Producers
Below are the top 12 wide receivers who are overproducing their opportunity. Since I have not tested to see how predictive this model is (though its R^2 value against PPR points was .62, which is good overall for NFL stats), I would not necessarily use this as a sell high list.
Instead, think of those players as those who have caught touchdowns, and/or, could see a drop in their PPG for start/sit decisions.
Remember, to overproduce, a player has to show skill, talent or opportunity in valuable situations. It could even be all three. It’s not necessarily a bad sign in dynasty at all. But it may be in the short term. 
Notes
- Calvin Ridley is doing very well. But his targets are limited by Julio Jones and should continue to be because Julio is not going anywhere. In dynasty there are reasons to be excited but on a week-to-week basis, we should expect to see a drop in his PPG.
- A.J. Green is the WR1, and you won’t find a bigger Tyler Boyd truther than me. But he has been reduced to relying on touchdowns lately.
- John Brown is back. If the target share can condense a little more on him, he could keep this up. But for now, if the pace the team is playing at slows, he could let you down some weeks.
- Golden Tate, Mike Evans, and Emmanuel Sanders are good players in very competitive depth charts right now. So far, they are being buoyed by touchdowns.
- Tyreek Hill is an outlier on every list I make about anything. Sure his touchdown rate has to end but I have no idea when.
You can see a breakdown of each team’s wide receivers and their changing opportunity in graph form on my Twitter timeline here:
Week 1- 4 Target Share and WOPR distribution Graphs Thread
WOPR = Weighted Opportunty Rating from https://t.co/FoGEsYNjkk (Target Share weighted by MS Airyards)
— Peter Howard (@pahowdy) October 2, 2018
Thanks for checking it out!
SERIES NOTES
- I’m using a mix of data from 4for4.com and Airyards.com
- CoV = The Coefficient of Variation, it measures the variance in a sample (i.e. how much change there is week to week)
- Air yards = the total distance before the player caught his targets (essentially receiving yards minus yards after the catch)
- Regression = a rate should return closer to “normal” or average when it is greatly over or under that average over a long sample size
- WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating. It weights target share by the player’s share of air yards. It is one of the most stable (week to week and year to year) opportunity metrics and has extra utility because it describes some of the value in opportunity. It’s also useful because it can highlight potential regression when compared with fantasy points
- It should be noted that the WOPR calculation is my own and imperfect when compared Airyards.com. It has a slightly different player order at times, however, it is ranking them in ranges appropriately
- Zeno James, from ffstatistics.com, has been invaluable in collecting this data on a weekly basis. Give him a follow at @theDude_Z on Twitter
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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