Devy Stock Market: Week Five
The fantasy football stock market is constantly fluctuating and it is always important for us to know which players have a price that has become exploitable whether it be to buy or sell. Pieces like this one have been fairly commonplace in the industry for a while in both redraft and dynasty, but I will be focusing on college players for devy dynasty leagues and how their week-to-week performances are affecting their price in those leagues.
In this piece, I will be breaking down some of the devy trades that have been made in the early part of the season and how they reflect current player value.
09/13 – D.J. Moore, CeeDee Lamb and Jared Cook for Travis Kelce
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The early season success of Jared Cook as the TE1 through four weeks has this looking like a slam dunk early on. However, Cook was easily the least valuable piece in this deal then and now. September ADP has Moore at an ADP of 57 with Kelce at 28.
Does Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb bridge that gap between late fifth and late third? While we highlighted teammate Marquise Brown earlier this season, Lamb has also built on his success of 2017 with a good start in 2018. Lamb has 348 receiving yards and five touchdowns with an 18.3 yards per catch through five games. The range of outcomes for a player at least two years from being drafted is certainly high, but I project Lamb as a player who will go in the late first/early second of 2020 rookie drafts, which I do think is enough to bridge the two-round startup gap and make Moore and Lamb the more favorable side of this deal.
09/19 – Ahmmon Richards for Phillip Lindsay
Miami wide receiver Ahmmon Richards is off to another rocky start with injuries in 2018. Richards had an impressive freshman season with 934 receiving yards with 19.1 yards per catch.
In 2017, he played only seven games with 439 receiving yards, but maintaining that high yards per catch with 18.3. With the new redshirt rules, Miami is considering keeping Richards out until the final three games of the season with the bone bruise injury.
If Richards can stay healthy, he has the upside to be a top five wide receiver in a draft class, but the injuries are what have caused him to be valued similarly to Phillip Lindsay, an undrafted free agent who has flashed early on in his rookie campaign. This trade hinges on Richards getting and staying healthy more so than the staying power of Lindsay’s good start to his NFL career.
10/2 – Zamir White, Kelvin Harmon, Curtis Samuel (3 years), 2019 Rookie first and 2019 Devy Pick for DeAndre Hopkins (2) and 2019 Rookie third
This trade was made in the well known Kitchen Cinco league run by Ryan McDowell, and it’s a fun one. Devy leagues, especially contract devy leagues are one of the most fun formats to rebuild in, because there are so many ways to build your team from the bottom up.
A rebuild is the move that the Hopkins owner is trying to initiate by trading a player of his caliber, but I’m not sure he got enough to make the best of this rebuild. Georgia running back Zamir White is a highly volatile prospect, entering college in 2018 as the top running back in his class, but he suffered a torn ACL in his second practice at Georgia, his second torn ACL in as many years. White’s a high risk/high reward prospect who won’t be in the NFL until at least 2021, not something I’d consider a key piece in a deal for DeAndre Hopkins.
NC State wide receiver Kelvin Harmon is the best piece in the package. A wide receiver projected by many to be valued as a top five wideout, Harmon had 69 catches for 1,017 receiving yards in 2017. In 2018, Harmon has increased his receiving yards per game from 78 to 101.5 through four games, while also increasing his yards per catch from 14.7 in 2017 to 16.9 in 2018. While I like Harmon and what he has done in 2018, him being the centerpiece of a deal in exchange for Deandre Hopkins does seem like an undersell.
10/4 – Dion Lewis and Bryce Love for Matt Ryan (Superflex)
Stanford running back Bryce Love has been one of the more underwhelming devy players in 2018. Entering the season, Love was projected by many to be a top 10-12 pick in rookie drafts in 2018, but his performance thus far has not lived up to that standard. Love eclipsed 100 rushing yards in 12 of 13 games in 2017, but he has only surpassed that 100 yard mark once in 2018 through four games. He is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, 3.8 yards less than his 8.1 average in 2017.
Evaluating the trade, this looks like an underpay for a quarterback in the superflex format, particularly one with safe long term job security and quality production. Matt Ryan will never garner the hype of a top five dynasty quarterback, but he will likely finish in the QB8-QB15 range for the foreseeable future. Even if we value both Lewis and Love at their current value ceilings, Ryan is more valuable than a mid-late first (Love) and an early-mid second (Lewis).
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- Dynasty Commish Calendar: August - August 5, 2023
- Dynasty Commish Calendar: June - June 9, 2023
- Dynasty Commish Calendar: May - May 3, 2023
