Dynasty Capsule: Dallas Cowboys
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Quarterback
Dak Prescott
Prescott finished his 2017 campaign with 3,307 passing yards and 22 touchdowns along with 13 interceptions. He also rushed for 357 yards and six touchdowns. Prescott only had one game with more than 300 yards through the air but had eight games with multiple touchdown passes.
His overall production took a dip during Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspension. During that time, Prescott passed for just 1,146 yards and five touchdowns but had seven interceptions. One of the main reasons why the Cowboy offense took a nosedive during Elliott’s suspension was because the team’s star left tackle, Tyron Smith, was dealing with an injury that caused him to miss a few games and play hurt during a large portion of the season. The constant shuffle of the offensive line during the back half of the season caused the entire offense to tailspin.
Prescott currently has a 76.75 ADP, making him the sixth quarterback off the board in most rookie drafts behind Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck. The DLF staff has him ranked seventh amongst quarterbacks and at 88.86 overall. With all that being said, Prescott’s dynasty value is still holding strong. His rushing production elevates his floor, making him a very safe asset to invest in.
He will start the 2018 season at 25 years of age and should be the Cowboys’ quarterback for a very long time. Even when Dallas is forced to take a step back and do a complete rebuild of the entire roster, Prescott will still be fantasy relevant due to his rushing production. He’s a solid get in dynasty.
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Cooper Rush
Right now, Rush only holds value in super deep 2QB leagues. He looked good in the preseason last year and is the team’s developmental prospect at quarterback. Rush could flash and generate decent fantasy numbers if Prescott went down with an injury.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott
In ten games, Elliott rushed for 983 yards and seven touchdowns. Even though he missed six games this year, he still managed to finish the season ranked tenth in rushing. He had five games with over 100 yards rushing and three games with multiple touchdowns. His best game came in week seven when he rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns and caught one pass for 72 yards against the San Francisco 49ers. Elliott scored 15 or more fantasy points in all of his games but one.
Elliott currently has an overall ADP of 7.75, making him a first-round pick in startup drafts. The DLF staff has him ranked 2.78 amongst NFL running backs and 5.57 overall. His dynasty value should hold steady through the off-season as long as he doesn’t have any more off-the-field issues. He’s a key staple of the Cowboys’ offense and unless he’s battling injuries, he will always receive a heavy workload. The only risk with Elliott is his off-the-field issues, and outside of that, he’s a highly dependable asset.
Rod Smith
Smith had his most productive season of his career this year, rushing for 232 yards and four touchdowns and catching 19 passes for 202 yards and one touchdown. He was a suitable end-of-bench flier for dynasty teams during most of the season. Smith had three games with more than ten fantasy points.
His value in fantasy is almost free with a dynasty ADP of 191.50. The DLF staff has him ranked at 80.33 amongst NFL running backs. He’s a cheap role player for the Cowboys and his value would significantly increase if Elliott were to go down with an injury. However, he wasn’t mega productive during Elliott’s six-game suspension, so the odds of him blowing up in the future are highly unlikely. This year’s draft is going to be stacked with talent at the running back position, and there’s a good chance that Dallas uses one of their picks to bring in a younger, more talented running back.
Alfred Morris
Morris rushed for 547 yards and one touchdown, and averaged 4.76 yards per attempt. He wasn’t dominating, but he got the job done when Ezekiel Elliott was out. His best game came during week 13 when he rushed for 127 yards and one touchdown. Morris only had two games during the season with more than ten fantasy points.
He is currently holding a 214.25 ADP, making him borderline waiver wire fodder in most leagues. With him being ranked 79.22 overall amongst all NFL running by the DLF staff, it’s quite apparent that Morris doesn’t hold the same value compared to his glory days back in 2014 when he was a 1,000-yard rusher for the Washington Redskins. He will be an unrestricted free agent in 2018 and it’s hard to tell whether he will be in the league next year, let alone re-signing with the Cowboys. Morris could be another running back who is left on the outside looking in due to the infusion of running back talent from the 2018 draft class.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant
Bryant hasn’t had a season with double-digit touchdowns since 2014 when he racked up 16 touchdowns. Since then, he has only scored 17 total touchdowns in the last three seasons. This was by far the worst season of his career, considering he started all 16 games and only mustered 838 yards and six touchdowns. He had a 52.30 percent catch rate, and averaged 6.35 yards per target.
Next season will be his ninth year in the league and he will have his 30th birthday in November. It’s obvious his skills are on the decline like most players his age. Bryant is struggling to separate from defenders and make plays on the ball downfield. Plus, the Cowboys haven’t done a good job at getting the appropriate supporting cast around him. They neglected to get a speedier wide receiver to help take the top off the defense which would take a lot of pressure off Bryant’s shoulders. Other than Bryant, there really isn’t another threat in Dallas’ passing game. He is not currently set up to succeed in Dallas.
Also, Prescott and Bryant are not and probably will never be on the same page. There doesn’t seem to be chemistry between the two players. Bryant doesn’t create separation enough for Prescott to trust him and Prescott struggles to connect with Bryant when he’s in tight coverage. This isn’t a match made in heaven.
His value has plummeted this season to a 41.50 ADP and I can see it dropping more in the off-season. The DLF staff currently has him at 22.89 for his positional rank and 42.29 overall. His value is eventually going to drop to a point where he becomes a screaming discount in both startup drafts and the trade market. He’s an aging asset whose value will slowly depreciate going forward, but there will come a point in the future where his talent will outweigh his value.
Getting cut by the Cowboys might be the best thing for Bryant. He needs a change of scenery, coaching staff, offensive system and possibly a new quarterback for him to be able to regain some of his gusto. The days of him being a top-ten receiver are long gone. He is still capable of being a solid WR2, but he’s currently not in the right environment to maximize his opportunities.
Terrance Williams
Williams has never had a 1,000-yard season in his career with the Cowboys and he was only fantasy relevant in 2014 when he scored 11 touchdowns. This year, he caught 53 passes for 568 yards and no touchdowns. He only had three games with ten or more fantasy points. He hasn’t been productive enough to be a dependable option in fantasy. You’re not winning many games if he’s consistently in your lineup.
Williams has little to no value in dynasty with a 225.75 ADP, and the DLF Staff currently has him ranked 97.33 amongst wide receivers. He’s just a role player for the Cowboys and I highly doubt he will ever become a mega-producer in fantasy.
Cole Beasley
Beasley caught 36 passes for 314 yards and four touchdowns this year for the Cowboys. He scored 91.4 fantasy points this year, down 106.1 from his 2017 campaign. His efficiency also dropped from a 76.5 percent catch rate in 2016 to a dismal 57.1 percent catch rate in 2017. Beasley’s target share also regressed from owning a 20.29 percent target share in Dallas’ passing game in 2016 to owning just 12.78 percent of the targets in 2017.
He currently holds a 228.75 ADP, a tremendous dip in value considering he had a 116 ADP about a year ago. Beasley has a positional rank of 81.11 and an overall rank of 172.4. He is no longer a relevant commodity in fantasy.
Beasley becomes a free agent in 2019 and Dallas could potentially save money if they decide to cut him in the off-season. With that said, he would have to sign with the right team who plans to feature him as their main slot receiver to ever be reliable in fantasy ever again.
Brice Butler
He caught 15 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Butler’s narrative is that he’s a highly athletic prospect who is just waiting to breakout. Here’s the truth: he has never had a 1,000-yard season, and that’s counting high school, college, and the pros. Technically, his high school coaches are still waiting for him to breakout.
Butler will be an unrestricted free agent in 2018 and there’s a very good chance that he won’t be a Dallas Cowboy in the near future. I don’t know if there’s much hope left for Butler.
Ryan Switzer
Switzer is the prototypical slot receiver who does prototypical slot receiver things. He was highly productive during his senior year at North Carolina, catching 96 passes for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. If Cole Beasley gets cut or moves on in free agency in 2019, Switzer would be the prime candidate to take over as the team’s slot receiver. He holds value as an end-of-bench stash in dynasty.
Noah Brown
Brown will be a popular breakout candidate on Dallas’ depth chart this off-season. He saw limited action during his rookie season, catching four passes for 33 yards. He’s a solid player to hold at the end of your bench in dynasty.
Lance Lenoir
There’s nothing to see here. He doesn’t have the size nor the athletic measurables to stack up against NFL level competition. He’s fighting on the backend of Dallas’ depth chart and he has a long row to hoe if he wants to make the team in 2018.
KD Cannon
Cannon started his NFL career spending time on the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and the Los Angeles Rams rosters before making his final pit stop on the Cowboys practice squad. He received a lot of hype during the draft process last year, but things aren’t looking good for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s out of the league within a year or two.
Tight End
Jason Witten
Witten caught 63 passes for 560 yards and five touchdowns. This is the first year since 2006 that he received less than 100 targets in a season. Witten had six games with ten or more fantasy points and his best game came during week two when he caught ten passes for 97 yards and one touchdown.
Witten will be 36 years old going into next season and it seems like he’s going to play until his body tells him to stop. In March of 2017, he signed a four-year $29.6 million contract extension. Although he will never be a mega fantasy producer again, he can still be a very cheap insurance policy at the end of your bench.
James Hanna
Hanna caught four passes for 88 yards and one touchdown this year. He has been with the team since 2012 and he hasn’t had a season with more than 100 yards receiving. His contract expires with the Cowboys in 2019, but he is a potential cut candidate in 2018. Hanna is a highly athletic tight end who may need a change of scenery to have a chance at more playing time.
Geoff Swaim
He caught nine passes for 94 yards during his three-year career with the Cowboys. Dallas traded back into the seventh round of the 2015 NFL Draft to acquire him and the coaching staff is in love with his blocking ability. He will never become a relevant player in fantasy football.
Rico Gathers
Gathers was placed on injured reserve in September for a concussion and didn’t play a single snap during the 2017 season. He’s a highly athletic tight end prospect who has a lot of potential. Gathers is stashed away on a lot of dynasty rosters because he’s a well-known commodity amongst dynasty leaguers. Even though he’s a crowd favorite, he’s still a very raw prospect. However, his price tag is on the cheap and he’s still worth dancing with if you want to take a chance on him.
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