Alshon Jeffery: Healthy Again and Ready to Dominate?

Zachary Wilkens

It feels like a distant memory when Alshon Jeffery put up back-to-back WR1 seasons in 2013-14. He averaged 87-1,277-8 over those two seasons with Jay Cutler and a sprinkling of Josh McCown. Over the following three years, Jeffery dealt with an injury-marred but productive 2015, a suspension in 2016 and then a change of scenery in 2017 while also playing with a torn labrum.

Understandably, he had a quiet start to his first season in Philadelphia. Over his first seven games, he failed to crack 50 yards in four of them while recording just two touchdowns. In the eighth game of the season, he caught just two of his eight targets but that included 53-yard touchdown. He also had a two-point conversion.

That seemed to have been the turning point for Carson Wentz and Jeffery. Over Wentz’ final five games of the season, Jeffery had at least four receptions and 50 yards in all of them, while adding five more touchdowns. Four of those touchdowns were in the red zone. No one else on the team had more than a single red zone touchdown reception over that period. Jeffery was a very promising WR12 in PPG over this six-week period (bye week included).

Then of course as we all know, Wentz tore his ACL and Jeffery again struggled with a new quarterback. Notably, he put up a goose egg in week 16, drawing the ire of any fantasy player who may have ridden his hot streak to – and started him in – a crucial championship match. Under-the-radar to the fantasy scene, Jeffery rebounded during the Super Bowl run, with a line of 12-219-3.

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That brings us to this year where it was revealed that Jeffery needed surgery for his torn labrum and would miss all of the preseason and the first few weeks of the regular season. The result of missing a few early season games? Those participating in September DLF mocks punished him heavily and he reached his low point as far back as the data goes with an ADP of 59.

This represents an excellent buy window for Jeffery. Between two Nick Foles starts and Wentz’ return from injury – where they were likely careful (and without impact players Jeffery and Jay Ajayi) – the Eagles are just 24th in points and 26th in yards per play with just two passing touchdowns. This is after finishing top ten in all three of these categories last year, including first in passing touchdowns with 38.

Is there any reason to think Doug Pederson’s offense was merely a flash in the pan? I don’t think so. Consider that this team has given meaningful snaps to Wendell Smallwood, Kamar Aiken, Shelton Gibson and DeAndre Carter already in the young season. Backup tight end Joshua Perkins has received ten targets over the past two games while lining up as a wide receiver several times. Even with the signing of Jordan Matthews, this all points to major targets for Jeffery upon his return.

The Eagles certainly seem to be all in on Jeffery. Following a one-year “prove it” deal, they rewarded Jeffery with a four-year, $52m dollar deal with $26m in guarantees. Those guarantees mean he is with the Eagles through 2019 at least. A young franchise QB and his favorite red zone target? Sign me up!

So what should we expect when Jeffery returns to the field? He received 120 targets last year and with their current receivers, I definitely don’t see that pace falling off. It may even increase a little. Many will point to his low catch percentage and yardage as reasons to avoid Jeffery. These are both statistics that saw improvement both over his last six games with Wentz and then with Foles in the playoffs as well.

I think it’s fair to expect some TD regression after scoring 12 in 19 games last year with the playoffs included. There’s no reason to expect a big fall off in this potent offense though. I believe we are looking at a player who will be in the mid to high-end WR2 range for the rest of 2018 and 2019.

That makes him an excellent value at his current ADP of WR27. Of course, from September to October mocks, we will see a big ADP shakeup now that we’ll have meaningful football production again. Here are some players I would take him over from September: Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon, D.J. Moore, Demaryius Thomas and Amari Cooper.

Look at the Jeffery owner in your league, maybe they’ve struggled to start the season without him. He could be viewed as a good piece to ship off for picks/youth on their end. Take advantage of that and enjoy as he takes the WR1 role while the Eagles offense rebounds to 2017 levels.

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