Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Two – NFC
Welcome back to the weekly DLF target share article. In week one, we took a brief look at the starting point for opportunity in the passing game as well as a few surprises. In week two, we are still struggling for more context. However, we can learn a bit more each week.
This will give us an idea of who is having consistent opportunity but also whose week one numbers may have been overblown. As a side note, notice how much changes week to week. This explains why DFS isn’t easy and start/sit decisions are actually difficult.
So let see what’s changed for every player on every team… think I’m joking?
Buckle up, buttercup.
Definitions:
- Air yards: the distance the ball traveled before the player caught it
- aDot: Average depth of target
- RACR: Receiver Air yards Conversation Ratio – how well they turn air yards into receiving yards
- WOPR – Weighted Opportunity Rating – it weights target share by air yards
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are yet another team who we know are going to have a different quarterback by week three. The good news is, this is a really smart team.
Don’t Trust: Josh Perkins being used over Zach Ertz. Enough said.
Maybe Believe: Corey Clement will get usage especially when Jay Ajayi goes out of the game for one reason or another. I also think it’s very likely that Kamar Aiken is the third wide receiver on the depth chart now (update: they also signed Jordan Matthews this week).
Dallas Cowboys
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If you have access to a parachute, now is the time to bail out.
Don’t Trust: Tavon Austin and Deonte Thompson, or a team’s passing game that targets them more than any other wide receiver.
Maybe Believe: Michael Gallup is being wasted? Also, Ezekiel Elliott is a good running back and may luck into targets to bolster his floor even on a bad offense.
Washington Redskins
Don’t’ trust: Josh Doctson. This is an Alex Smith pre-2017 team now.
Maybe Believe: That Smith can make a running back the leading receiver. Chris Thompson is Smith’s new tight end. He also likes his new tight end Jordan Reed… but not as much.
New York Giants
Don’t Trust: Eli Manning, Evan Engram (this year) or Sterling Shepard.
Maybe Believe: That Saquon Barkley can bolster his floor and ceiling with check-downs this season. He is all set to be a volume monster. Odell Beckham has been making it work for years, Barkley can too.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
Don’t Trust: Kyle Rudolph. He’s a really solid tight end when targeted. But that can happen – or not – at any time. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are the receiving weapons on this team.
Maybe Believe: That Thielen and Diggs will both be start-able every week.
Detroit Lions
Don’t Trust: That Luke Wilson hope.
Maybe Believe: Kenny Golladay is happening, and Detroit is going to have to pass a lot.
Green Bay Packers
I’m worried about Aaron Rodgers knee like everyone, but I’m going to be optimistic because it feels nicer.
Don’t Trust: Davante Adams as the dominant target hog. I think Randall Cobb is going to claim back enough of those targets to make this more a “start both” situation.
Maybe Believe: Jimmy Graham can and will be productive this year. He’s played on 98% and 75% of the team’s snaps through week one and two so far.
Chicago Bears
Don’t Trust: Taylor Gabriel as the second target on this offense. Long term I think Anthony Miller can claim a bigger role.
Maybe Believe: That Allen Robinson is a WR1, still.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers
Don’t Trust: Torrey Smith, low hanging fruit, I know. But there it is. I think D.J. Moore will earn a role but he still only played 25% of snaps in week two, so it’s slow going so far.
Maybe Believe: Christian McCaffrey is the target hog on this team. But just as important, Devin Funchess is getting a lot of opportunity and if it keeps up it’s when, not if, he will produce.
Atlanta Falcons
Yeah, I see you, Calvin Ridley, and I’m ready to admit it if and when it happens, but right now I’m more interested in Austin Hooper being the second highest targeted player on the team.
Don’t Trust: Anyone who tells you Julio Jones isn’t going to dominate production and targets in Atlanta. Yes, Austin Hooper has the second most targets… with nine, compared to Julio’s 28! (Ridley has eight)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ryan Fitzpatrick has unlocked this passing game and its weapons, it’s true. The team has also been calling aggressive and impressive game plans, which helps. He’ll probably turn back into a pumpkin soon…
Don’t Trust: That we can predict when and where Fitzpatrick will become a journeyman again. Hot streaks start and end when they do.
Maybe Believe: This team has figured out how to unlock its weapons. I think they will enjoy it and keep doing it. There is no running game threat to encourage them to consider trying. All three of these players (Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Chris Godwin) are very good at football.
New Orleans Saints
Don’t Trust: That Ted Ginn will be Drew Brees’ number three option forever.
Maybe Believe: Michel Thomas is getting a lot of the best possible quality targets in the NFL. He is also very, very good at football. This will not slow down.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams
Don’t Trust: That Robert Woods will keep spitting up the ball on this opportunity. He’s going to hit some weeks as well.
Maybe Believe: Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are going to keep producing. The target distribution is very tight on this team and both are worth having and playing on a week-to-week basis.
Seattle Seahawks
Don’t Trust: Will Dissly. He is not the best rookie tight end since Evan Engram. Russell Wilson is just that good.
Maybe Believe: Dissly could well keep having good games because Wilson is on the team. Tyler Lockett is the number one target (Doug Baldwin will have to come back and then prove healthy to change that.)
Arizona Cardinals
Don’t Trust: David Johnson’s targets. I have faith, hope, and David Johnson. This coaching staff has to figure this out. His target share is at 28% for the season (which would be fine), but the team and fantasy need his targets to become more consistent weekly, however.
Maye Believe: Christian Kirk will happen, but week two was a product of Larry Fitzgerald missing time (58% of snaps compared to 98% in week one.) Fitzgerald will be back and eating targets soon.
San Francisco 49ers
Don’t Trust: George Kittle’s production compared to his usage. Right now it’s tough to see anything other than a very diverse spread of opportunity. But he should be able to do more with what he’s getting.
Maybe Believe: Dante Pettis is going to struggle like every rookie. The depth chart can’t get any weaker.
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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