Dynasty Value Study: James Conner

Ryan McDowell Posted On September 15, 2018

In this series, I will take a deep dive into one specific player’s current dynasty value. This can actually be quite a challenge considering player value in a dynasty league is impacted by everything to the weekly production during the season to decisions players make off the field in the spring and summer months.

Here at Dynasty League Football, we offer many tools to measure a player’s value and I’ll be using many of those in this article. Let’s dig in!

Second-year running back James Conner has wasted no time in taking advantage of the holdout of superstar back Le’Veon Bell. Conner had a strong preseason and then truly broke out in week one with nearly 200 total yards and two touchdowns. He’s truly the talk of the dynasty world. If this were a typical situation in which young backs explode onto the scene, nearly all dynasty players would be on board with aggressively buying Conner with eyes toward the remainder of the season and seasons to come.

In this case though, Conner has to look over his shoulder for a possible Bell return. The expectation is that Bell will regain his starting, workhorse role once he decides he wants to play again. That could be next week or as late as week ten. I expect Conner to cement his value with each passing week and strong performance, but unless we somehow learn that Bell will miss the entire season, there will be lingering questions about the value of both players.

Dynasty Rankings

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In our Top 200 Overall Dynasty Rankings, Conner currently sits at 193 overall, included by just two of our six rankers.

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In our Positional Rankings, Conner comes in at RB34 between Chris Thompson and Duke Johnson. He’s ranked by all nine staff members with a high of RB18 and a low of RB76. This wide range is a good representation of how uncertain dynasty players feel about Conner and his future.

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Based on these rankings, I would presume some staffers have yet to update their ranks following week one, while others simply have questions about Conner’s long-term viability. I know I do.

Dynasty ADP

In our recently-released September dynasty ADP, Conner finished as the 118th player overall with an exact ADP of 120.83, landing between Matthew Stafford and Matt Breida. For reference, the mock drafts this data is based on began on September first, before any regular season games had been played. By the time we knew Bell wouldn’t be reporting to the team and Conner ran all over the Browns, the drafts were nearing a close. In late redraft leagues, I saw Conner drafted as early as the third round.

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Conner’s dynasty ADP history, which can be found on his player page, tells more of the story of a player dynasty owners can’t decide how to value. We see a spike in Conner’s value when he was surprisingly drafted at the end of the third-round in 2017 and then another spike late in 2017 when many dynasty owners begin to look towards the future and value young, high-upside players over older, proven producers.

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Trade Finder

Possibly my favorite value related tool at DLF is our Trade Finder, which pull trade data from actual dynasty leagues. You can also customize the data based on number of teams, scoring and starting requirements. Each of the following trades are based on typical PPR leagues with just one starting quarterback.

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Based on most of these, Conner is worth a future first-round dynasty rookie pick and that might look like a steal in the near future. If you’re contending and especially if you are without Bell, I understand the reasoning for dealing your future first-rounder for Conner’s current production.

Twitter Polls

Lastly, I love to utilize Twitter polls to identify how the community is valuing a player. While this is obviously not a DLF specific tool, it can be very revealing.

Following Conner’s big opening-week performance, I posted a series of polls matching him against backs currently ranked anywhere from 16-27 in current DLF dynasty rankings. Remember, those same ranks have Conner as RB34. Here are the results.

Which RB would you want on your dynasty roster?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 10, 2018

So, based on these results, we could loosely rank these backs in this order:

Freeman (56%)
Chubb (55%)
Conner
Coleman (47%)
Penny (38%)
Drake (36%)
Collins (32%)
Ingram (26%)

This data is not completely surprising as dynasty owners tend to give rookies a pass, while holding veterans to a higher standard. Each of the backs matched with Conner had somewhat disappointing season openers, perhaps with the exception of Coleman.

Conclusion

Dynasty players and analysts often find it challenging to place a value on a breakout player and for good reason why. Uncertainty. In Cooner’s case, that uncertainty is two-fold. Not only will he continue to produce at a high-level, but will he even have the opportunity with Bell’s eventual return. In dynasty leagues, there will be aggressive owners willing to trade first-round picks and more for Conner. Now, you each must decide, with the information laid before you, if you will take the risk and pay the price or wait out the Bell return.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.