Dynasty Diatribe: Don’t Overvalue Week One Hit Wonders

Josh Brickner

Kickoff weekend brings about anxiety, anticipation, and massive overreactions from both hardcore fans and fantasy degenerates alike. Many of these knee-jerk responses result in fringe roster players being overvalued by the dynasty community after a single, strong performance. Yet, the dynasty football tombs are full of these same gladiators who appeared on the verge of a banner season after week one only to come crashing back down to earth… HARD!

Past Week One Top Performers: Where are they Now? Kevin Ogletree and Mike Gillislee

On the opening night of the 2012 NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys traveled to the Meadowlands to take on the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. However, the G-Men’s ring ceremony was ruined by a little-used, fourth-year wide receiver named Kevin Ogletree. The Virginia product led the Cowboys to victory converting his team-high 11 targets into eight receptions for 114 yards and two touchdowns.

Dynasty owners emptied their FAAB budgets to acquire Ogletree’s services as his nationally-televised efforts had many believing they had found the next breakout wide receiver in the league. Unfortunately, Ogletree not only floundered the rest of the 2012 season (24-322-2), but that game was the pinnacle of his career. He was only able to muster 26 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and two scores over the next two seasons with three different teams before being permanently unemployed by 2015.

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Some of you might be too young, but I’m old enough to remember when Mike Gillislee was a hot dynasty commodity leading up to the 2017 season. The former Buffalo Bill had an August 2017 DLF ADP of 76.33 as he was expected to inherit the same short yardage/goal-line role for New England that saw LeGarrette Blount score 18 (!) touchdowns in 2016. Gillislee was well on his way to double-digit scores as he found paydirt an impressive three times on five carries inside the ten on last season’s opening night. The former Gator’s dynasty stock soared as he was traded straight-up for Tevin Coleman or could be included in a package with Blount for a 2019 first.

Those who cashed out their Gillislee shares were the real winners as he was only able to score one more touchdown over the next seven games before becoming a healthy scratch for the next six. The running back was cut by the Patriots in training camp and is a member of the New Orleans Saints… for now. His days in the Big Easy might be numbered following a dreadful three-carry/nine-yard stat line on Sunday highlighted by his fumble being returned for a score.

2018 Week One Top Performers to Fade

Ogletree and Gillislee aren’t the only players whose week one-hit wonder games were misinterpreted as a breakout, but they won’t be the last and offer a valuable lesson for us all. A savvy dynasty owner should not only avoid paying a massive haul for these assets, but should sell them immediately before their value could fade into The Darkness.

Phillip Lindsay, RB DEN

If I had said five days ago a Broncos’ rookie running back was going to finish as PPR RB11 in his debut, you would feel very confident about your Royce Freeman shares. However, it was Denver native Lindsay, not Freeman, who captured the hearts of the Mile High City faithful in a season-opening victory against Seattle. While Lindsay is a nice sentimental story of a local boy coming home to succeed, it does not change the fact we’re looking at a three-person Denver backfield committee in 2018.

Broncos offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave is no stranger to not only using a committee approach, but a three-person committee. When Musgrave held the same position with Oakland in 2016 Latavius Murray (46.9%), DeAndre Washington (21.5%), and Jalen Richard (21.1%) all split a percentage of the running back snaps. Only Murray (RB13) was able to have fantasy success as the leader of that backfield triumvirate.

Make no mistake, it’s Freeman not Lindsay, who is the alpha dog of Denver’s three-headed monster of a running back committee and possesses the limited, available upside. Barring a significant injury to the third round Oregon product, we likely just witnessed Lindsay’s best fantasy output of the season.

The market for the Colorado product has been quiet over the last month. Notable deals include him being included with Willie Snead in a package for Dede Westbrook or being dealt for Ameer Abdullah and Ryan Grant. Reach out to the Le’Veon Bell owner or another running back-needy squad and target a high upside, receiver like Westbrook, Dante Pettis, or Kenny Golladay in your negotiations. Lindsay must be dealt immediately as by this time next week his dynasty stock could crater faster than the careers of the Baha Men.

Will Dissly, TE SEA

Well, I was partially correct with my prediction of a Seattle tight end catapulting himself up the dynasty hierarchy after a strong week one showing. I just picked the wrong one. Will Dissly literally came out of nowhere on Sunday against Denver to record 105 receiving yards and a touchdown on three receptions. Now, before you go throwing around your FAAB budget to acquire the Washington product, there are a few points to consider.

First and foremost, third-year pro Nick Vannett was not only involved in the offense Sunday with two targets of his own, but the Ohio State product out-snapped Dissly 35-33. Vannett will still be a key cog in the Seattle passing game severely hindering both the upside and consistent production of the former Huskie. Additionally, Dissly was converted from a defensive-end at the University of Washington and his run-blocking prowess is well known. In fact, it’s my belief the Seahawks used his block-first reputation to their favor to catch the Denver defense off-guard.

Speaking of the Broncos defense, they gave up the fourth most fantasy points per game (14.7) to the tight-end position and those struggles appear to have gone unresolved. Thus, Dissly’s “breakout” was more a combination of precise game-planning to attack an opponent’s weakness.

Adrian Peterson, RB WAS

Let me be honest and clear about one thing; Adrian Peterson is not a one-hit wonder. Peterson is both a future Hall of Famer and one of the best running backs I’ve ever had the privilege of watching play football. Yet, his stints in New Orleans, Arizona, and now D.C. just don’t feel right; reminiscent to an iconic classic rock band like Bon Jovi releasing mediocre albums in the 21st century. AD does have one thing in common with the above two men, they’ve all probably had their highest statistical game of the season in week one.

The 33-year-old, 12th-year veteran from Oklahoma recorded his 2,600th carry on Sunday and that heavy of a workload would destroy anyone’s body, even a physical specimen like him. The last two seasons we’ve seen evidence of Peterson starting to succumb to Father Time as he’s missed 59% of the possible games due to injury.

In 2017, we saw Peterson excel during his first game with Arizona (after the trade from New Orleans) racking up 136 yards and two scores on 26 carries. AD was unable to build on this performance as he only averaged a mediocre 3.05 yards per carry with zero touchdowns over the next five games before missing the rest of the season with a neck injury.

The former Sooner’s diminishing skills will become more evident with each passing week this season, meaning you need to get value before he hangs up his cleats for good. Prior to his RB7 performance, Peterson was being traded in one-for-one swaps for Tyrell Williams, a 2019 first, and Danny Amendola.

Reaching out to a running back starved, contending team before the beginning of week two could return a younger, post-hype receiver like Anthony Miller or Jamison Crowder who underwhelmed in the league’s first week.

Were you involved in a trade for one of these players? Disagree with any of my assessments? Reach out and/or give me a follow on Twitter and I’d be happy to chat with you.

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josh brickner
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