Sunday Morning Huddle: Week One
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Buffalo at Baltimore
It is difficult to be excited about any player in this Buffalo offense, but dynasty owners should still be focused on the team’s star, running back LeSean McCoy. The off-season was not kind to Shady, who – on top of dealing with serious allegations from an ex-girlfriend – watched his team make some questionable decisions. The Bills offensive line is in bad shape and they have few, if any, real threats at receiver. Add in the downgrade at quarterback with the loss of Tyrod Taylor and it could be a long year for McCoy. Being 30 years old, if McCoy struggles to put up fantasy points, his value will be decimated.
The Ravens have a new look pass-catching corps, having added Michael Crabtree, John Brown, Willie Snead along with rookie tight ends Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews. The player of note here though is workhorse running back Alex Collins. After finishing 2017 as a top ten fantasy back in the season’s final two months, Collins is locked in as the team’s starter, despite an initial uncertainty over the off-season. Collins has a chance to get off to a great start facing the Bills defense and could see his dynasty value grow as a result.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
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One of the most-anticipated games of the day for many reasons pits AFC North foes Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The Browns have seemingly upgraded every position this off-season and have many players dynasty owners will want to see, considering they consistently placed the most players inside the top 100 of our monthly dynasty ADP. With that said, we’ve already seen newcomers Jarvis Landry and Carlos Hyde ball out in preseason and rookies Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and Antonio Callaway had their moments as well. We all want to see receiver Josh Gordon, who skipped most of training camp and all of preseason action. Although Gordon reportedly won’t start, he should see plenty of work and was a target hog after returning late last season. Perhaps no player in the league has a wider range of outcomes.
All eyes will be on second-year running back James Conner, who has been elevated to starter as Le’Veon Bell’s holdout has officially extended into the regular season. After a rough rookie season, Conner looks like a different person this year, playing well in pre-season. If he can perform against a solid Cleveland defense in what are expected to be nasty weather conditions, the Steelers will suddenly have all the leverage against Lev, making a tough situation even uglier. Dynasty owners are uncertain how to value either of the backs in question, but this game should tell us a lot.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
The Colts will be trotting out what has been called one of the worst secondaries in the league and many seem to be expecting Andy Dalton and company to get off to a hot start. While I am anxious to see how the Bengals backfield is managed as far as the split usage between Giovani Bernard and Joe Mixon, the player I’ll be most focused on is second-year wideout John Ross. Cincy made the speedster a top ten pick but injuries derailed his rookie season. He has a long injury history but has been electric when on the field and made a huge touchdown catch during the pre-season that reminded us all of that ability. Set to start opposite A.J. Green, Ross could be in for a breakout year.
There are many questions surrounding this Colts offense including how their four-man backfield committee will work out and if former Raven Ryan Grant will be adequate as the team’s second receiver. Be honest though, none of this really matters if quarterback Andrew Luck is not the Luck of old. I was starting to think we’d never see Luck play again, but he got in a full training camp and pre-season, though he seemed hesitant to throw the ball downfield. A dink and dunk Luck-led offense is not what we want to see, but it might be what we have to settle for, at least for the next few weeks.
Tennessee at Miami
Another AFC South quarterback with some question marks is Titans signal-caller Marcus Mariota. During his three-year career, Mariota has been plagued with injuries and a poor supporting cast, but it felt like the year things would come together. The team added some weapons around Mariota and he was fully healthy heading into camp. That still wasn’t good enough for a positive pre-season showing, which forces the questions about Mariota’s upside.
I can’t wait to see rookie tight end Mike Gesicki in action. Normally, fantasy owners are forced to remain patient with young tight ends, but this might be an exception. The Dolphins have treated the Penn State product as their starter from day one and injuries to receiver DeVante Parker and tight end MarQueis Gray may lead to an even larger opportunity for Gesicki. My prediction is Gesicki finishes the season as a top 12 fantasy scorer.
San Francisco at Minnesota
Just a week before the season opener, the 49ers lost their starting running back Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL. That leaves many questions, most centering around veteran Alfred Morris and second-year man Matt Breida. This pair have been hot commodities as dynasty rosters form into week one shape and one, or maybe even both, are going to be difference makers thanks to the sudden volume boost they are expected to see.
Vikings fans will be focused on their new starting quarterback Kirk Cousins and how he meshes with start receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, and rightfully so. I think fantasy players might be more interested in sophomore back Dalvin Cook, who returns from a torn ACL. Not only do we want to see Cook fully healthy, but there is also growing concern about his role and a potential committee backfield, including underrated veteran Latavius Murray. Cook has been one of the rare cases of players gaining value while missing time with a serious injury.
Houston at New England
Another young player returning from injury is Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. In six starts a year ago, Watson averaged over 30 fantasy points, doing damage through the air and on the ground. The Houston offense looks much like it did a year ago, so the focus will be on Watson and if he can somehow come close to matching his ridiculous year-one efficiency.
The Patriots return many familiar faces and names, led by Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and James White. One player who won’t be on the field, at least for a few weeks is veteran receiver Julian Edelman, who is suspended for a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Edelman will sit for the first month, opening the door for someone to step up and gain some dynasty value. Among the options are former Colt Phillip Dorsett, recently claimed former Jet Chad Hansen or even former dynasty darling Cordarrelle Patterson. My money is on Hansen.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Ironically, the player to watch for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is someone we might not get to see much of…rookie running back Ronald Jones. After being severely outplayed by veteran Peyton Barber during the preseason, Jones is the clear backup, but should still see an opportunity against a strict Saints defense. Although Jones dynasty value is in the gutter already, it would only take one or two eye-popping plays for that to shift again.
The Bucs secondary is in rough shape. Correction: they were already in rough shape and then ruled out starting cornerback Brent Grimes. Drew Brees should feast on this defense and while Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are the prime beneficiaries, rookie receiver Tre’Quan Smith could see some early involvement as well. He might just be the player we’re all talking about come Monday.
Jacksonville at New York Giants
The Giants face a tough task against what many consider the best defense in the NFL. This game, of course, marks the return of receiver Odell Beckham, who missed much of last season with an injury, along with rookie running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley, the unanimous 1.01 rookie pick this year, is in a difficult spot. The expectations are so high from dynasty owners that he will have a hard time maintaining his already lofty fantasy value, especially against this defense.
There’s been a discussion all off-season about which Jaguars wide receiver was the one to own in fantasy leagues. They’ve all offered nice values in all fantasy formats this off-season, but the field narrowed by one when veteran Marqise Lee suffered a season-ending injury. That leaves four solid receivers, and all will contribute, including former Colt Donte Moncrief, rookie DJ Chark and a pair of second-year wideouts, Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole, whom most consider the favorite to lead the team in fantasy production. For the full season, I’ll take Moncrief, but today could be Westbrook’s day.
Late Games
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
After the kind of season they put up last year, you wouldn’t see most teams making a switch at quarterback, but that’s just what the Chiefs did, shipping veteran Alex Smith to the Redskins and handing the keys to second-year man Patrick Mahomes. It will now be on him to help running back Kareem Hunt, receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce to match their production from 2017. If not, and that will certainly be a difficult task, Mahomes could take the blame.
We know what to expect from the major players on the Chargers offense, including Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and even the recently re-signed Antonio Gates. What is not clear is how the second receiver role will be handled. The Chargers used an early first-round pick in 2017 on Clemson’s Mike Williams, but he dealt with an injury for a big chunk of his rookie year. Now, he’s set to battle teammate Tyrell Williams for a larger role.
Washington at Arizona
I didn’t expect this to be the case, but one player in the Washington Redskins offense I really want to focus on is veteran running back Adrian Peterson. Until the season-ending injury to Redskins rookie back Derrius Guice, I didn’t think we’d ever see Peterson suit up again. Not only is he back, but he played like a man possessed in his limited pre-season work. In somewhat of a revenge game, Peterson should be ready to go. I don’t see him gaining much dynasty value, but he will be a player you should be able to easily buy or sell, depending on the state of your team.
Cardinals running back David Johnson is back on the field after a wrist injury ended his season way too soon in 2017. He brings with him a freshly signed deal which should keep him with Arizona for years to come. While I loved the rookie the Cardinals added through the draft, they have few short-term options in this offense, meaning Johnson should see all the work he can handle. His value has little room to move, but he could potentially even gain value as he racks up numbers in 2018.
Dallas at Carolina
Several weeks ago, we were told to expect 20-25 touches for second-year back Christian McCaffrey as the focal point of the Panthers offense. We laughed, but then we saw the plan in action, or at least a sneak peek of it during preseason. McCaffrey dominated the competition, breaking multiple big plays and making an impact as a runner and receiver. CMC has been a popular choice to jump into the elite range of dynasty assets in the coming months.
With Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone from this Dallas roster, an almost endless supply of targets is now available. Although the Cowboys brought in multiple options to fill the pass-catcher openings, including rookie Michael Gallup, along with Allen Hurns and Tavon Austin, none of these are sure things. Gallup certainly seems to have the highest upside of the group and he’d be my choice to serve as Dak Prescott’s top receiver.
Seattle at Denver
Another rookie receiver I am excited about is Denver’s Courtland Sutton. After the Broncos added Sutton, my initial thought was that 2018 would be somewhat of a redshirt year as he sat and learned from veterans Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. That might not be the case. Based on pre-season and training camp reports, Sutton is ready to contribute immediately. If he shows much promise at all, expect him to carry a top 50 overall price tag during next off-season.
Between the recent departures, the Earl Thomas holdout and the scathing article released last week surrounding the Seahawks and Russell Wilson, the 2018 season is not off to a great start for this Seattle roster. It kind of feels like things are about to completely crumble, and I’m worried that rookie back Rashaad Penny, a surprise first-rounder in the spring, could get lost in the shuffle. He’s already been outplayed by Chris Carson and missed time with an injury. A potential change in the coaching staff, which could be the result of the unrest, would be bad news for Penny.
Sunday Night
Chicago at Green Bay
I’ll be honest, anytime the Packers are on, I focus on my favorite player, receiver Randall Cobb. Along with him though, I’ll be closely watching running back Jamaal Williams and how he performs. With his teammate Aaron Jones serving a suspension to begin the season, Williams has a chance to place a firm grasp on the starting job. If he struggles through the first three games, expect Jones to come back in and see a heavy workload.
This one is a no-brainer for me. One of my top end-of-bench stashes late last season was then-impending free agent Trey Burton. I felt like a struck gold when he signed with the Chicago Bears and things got even better when he dominated the pre-season, not to mention the unfortunate injury to teammate Adam Shaheen. The Bears offense should show a great improvement following the additions made along with the much-needed coaching change.
Monday Night
New York Jets at Detroit
Much of the hype of the NFL Draft last spring centered around the “big five” rookie quarterbacks. Of those five first-round picks, only one will start Week One, the Jets Sam Darnold. I have some questions about Darnold’s weapons on the offense, but he has looked poised and confident in his pre-season work and when it comes to dynasty value, he has a chance to blow by his fellow rookies as they hold the clipboard.
The one key addition to the Lions offense is rookie back Kerryon Johnson and on a team that has overly relied on their pass game for years, he could make a huge impact. While the Lions do have pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick and goal line banger LeGarrette Blount, Johnson is solid in both areas and could also see much of the work between the 20s.
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland
The final game of week one features the return of Jon Gruden as Raiders head coach and who really knows what to expect from that. Based on how Gruden has relied on his top receivers during his previous coaching stops, wideout Amari Cooper could be in store for a heavy workload this season, which he needs to help his dynasty value rebound. He had the look of a perennial first-rounder for years to come before last year’s dud of a season. I think he could bounce back and crack the top 12 in our monthly ADP once again.
Last season, many thought the Rams misused receiver Sammy Watkins. Whether that was the case or not, the team let Sammy go and instead acquired another star deep threat from the class of 2014, Brandin Cooks. Cooks will now be playing for his third team in three season and the narrative of a tight bond between quarterback Jared Goff and receiver Cooper Kupp is a bit scary for Cooks owners. It is almost impossible to see Cooks matching the numbers from his past two seasons.
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