DLF’s 2018 Predictions: Fantasy MVP

Ken Kelly

Most rookie drafts are in the rearview mirror and the NFL Preseason is now over. We’re all busy combing the news sites trying to keep abreast of all the important developments as we prepare for the best time of the year, the NFL season.  That can only mean one thing – it’s time for us to put a bow on those reams of off-season content with DLF’s 2018 Fantasy Predictions. As we do every year, we have several different prediction articles for you in the following categories:

  • Fantasy MVP
  • Fantasy Rookie of the Year
  • Sleeper Rookie of the Year (outside our top 24)
  • Bust of the Year
  • Fantasy Sleeper
  • Best Dynasty Buy
  • Best Dynasty Sell
  • Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

We conclude the series with our choices for Fantasy MVP.

FANTASY MVP

Todd Gurley, RB LAR

I really didn’t want to choose Gurley because it’s easy and simply feels way too safe. However, I really don’t see another option. You can make a case for players like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham, Jr., but I really think the Rams will be even better this season and the touchdown potential for Gurley is ridiculous. If I was to really go out on a limb for this category, I’d actually choose Rob Gronkowski, who could make a huge difference this year on a team lacking weapons and playing a position where the point differential between the top and the second tier could be extreme – Ken Kelly

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David Johnson, RB ARI

DJ is my pick for fantasy MVP in 2018 because of the combination of his receiving ability and the fact he is the de facto WR2 on the Cardinals. Johnson has said multiple times his goal is to join Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk in the 1,000 yard rushing / 1,000 yard receiving club and this is definitely a year it is possible for him to hit that because of the lack of proven receivers behind future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. – Matt Price

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

Rob Gronkowski is going to feast this year as long as he stays healthy. Brandin Cooks was traded, Julian Edelman is suspended for the first four games and Jordan Matthews and Eric Decker are no longer with the team. Gronkowski will likely get more attention from defenses this season, but he also should see more targets to go along with that. Sure, players like Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott will probably put up more fantasy points this year, but Gronkowski’s value extends beyond just the sheer number of points he will put up as he provides such a weekly advantage every time he plays. Not only does he offer such a positional advantage each week, he gives his owners the ability to not worry about streaming or playing matchups and use an extra roster spot or two on someone else. – Kyle Holden

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

There’s no more valuable spot in fantasy than a bellcow running back.  And running back production correlates very strongly with playing time and touches.  Bell touched the ball 406 times in 2017. The next best RB was LeSean McCoy with 346.  Bell played 945 snaps in 2017 with Todd Gurley second with just 796. It’s amazing that Gurley (or anyone) managed to outproduce Bell given the advantage he had.  It looks increasingly likely that Bell is not in Pittsburgh long-term but both the team and the player have a strong interest in going out with a productive final year.  In an era when very few teams commit to high running back playing time or volume, I’m betting on one of the very few situations where we’ve seen a marked preference for doing so. – Tom Kislingbury

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

Yeah, I hear you. “But he’s missing the whole preseason again and he had over 400 touches last year!” My response to you is that, until proven otherwise, there’s nobody better at the running back position. I expect Bell to once again have a monster year and do the kind of things very few backs can do. Sure, he might start out slowly but he will win many teams fantasy championships this year. He had 400+ touches because the team trusts him, and they will again this year. They have no reason to do otherwise, and I expect another huge performance from Bell.  – Ryan Finley

David Johnson, RB ARI

I don’t know if people forget how much of an elite talent this guy is or how much of a focal point he is for the Cardinals but he’s everything Le’Veon Bell is without the competition for targets. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, there isn’t anyone who demands the ball in the desert. Also, Johnson is returning from a wrist injury (not a leg or knee), so he will be “all systems go” from week one. I’m expecting truly elite numbers with Sam Bradford hitting him often out of the backfield. He’s truly matchup proof because of his skills in the passing game. -Eric Olinger

Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR

After watching Pearl Campbell in the preseason, it’s quite apparent his already ample role is expanding to full bell cow, and he is simply going to be electric with it. A legitimate candidate for 100 catches who does not appear to be in anything resembling a timeshare and is best bet to be the top overall scorer outside of the obvious consensus top four running backs and top three wide receivers. – TJ Calkins

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL

While he’s still in the upper echelon of running backs, Zeke is not a popular MVP pick. I certainly get it, the losses of Travis Frederick, Jason Witten and Dez Bryant mean defenses will hone in on Zeke even more. My counter argument is simple. He was already the #1 focus of the defense last year as Dez was a shell of his once elite self. He led the league in rush yards per game and averaged over 120 yards from scrimmage per game. He has an excellent record of health and thanks to that six game suspension, he didn’t have an absurd number of touches last season. In short, he’ll have volume and touchdowns – he just needs to overcome some of the losses the Cowboys have endured. I think he can do that and put up a huge season. – Zach Wilkens

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU

For me, this was a tough pick between Nuk and Antonio Brown. The two played in a tier of their own in 2017, and there isn’t much to indicate either will slow down. Because of the positional advantage that they look nearly certain to create, I’m going with one of those two. And because, as we saw last year, Hopkins is just as productive without Watson as he is with him (and in less part, because Brown is sort of getting up there in age), I give the edge to Hopkins.

Odell Beckham, WR, NYG

This could qualify as a total homer pick but are we forgetting that when healthy this guy has put up a minimum of 1,300 receiving yards and ten touchdowns? I know there are many options in the Giants offense, but I truly believe that he lives up to the new contract and reminds everyone why he should be the top asset in their dynasty leagues. – Bobby Koch

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT

Brown is the most dominant fantasy football player of the past four years. Although turning 30 is a reality for Brown, the consistency and dependability has been exactly what we ask of our stud dynasty players. From 2014 to 2017, Brown has scored 1,380.7 fantasy points in PPR – more than 200 points more than the second highest scoring player. Only Julio Jones and Le’Veon Bell are even over 1,100 points. There have been eight players in history who’ve scored more than 1,000 points from age 30 to 33. There’s no reason, Brown can’t be as good as Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Rod Smith, Jimmy Smith, Tim Brown or Randy Moss. – Kevin O’Brien

David Johnson, RB ARI

People tend to forget how good players are when they’re injured. Todd Gurley was everyone’s fantasy darling last season, totaling 383.3 PPR fantasy points. In his last healthy season, DJ scored 407.8 PPR fantasy points, easily surpassing everyone from last season. There is no reason to believe Johnson will see a light workload as Arizona featured 410 rush attempts while targeting the running back 130 times in 2017. Keep in mind, the last time Johnson was healthy, he totaled 2,118 yards and 20 touchdowns, while falling only 121 receiving yards shy of a 1,000/1,000 season. – Justin Bales

Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR

Am I just trying to be contarry? Yes. Yes, I am. But it’s not just because I’m difficult by nature. The fantasy MVP is often someone we get outside the first round because the only thing better than a first round pick performing to expectation, is your second or third round pick out performing others teams’ first round pick. The fantasy MVP is someone who can win your league for you. Based on his potential to see a wide receiver-like target share and increase his rushing volume, McCaffrey has the potential to be that unseen value who lifts you to a championship. – Peter Howard

David Johnson, RB ARI

The Cardinals offense will begin and end with David Johnson in 2018, plain and simple. The team has no choice as outside of Larry Fitzgerald and Johnson, there are no other proven pass-catching options on the roster. Look for DJ to reach (and possibly exceed) his 373 touch total from 2016 when he finished as the RB1 in both PPR and Standard leagues. – Josh Brickner

Melvin Gordon, RB LAC

For once in his career, Melvin Gordon might be running behind a strong competent offensive line. The team gets back a healthy Forrest Lamp at guard and added Mike Pouncey at center. Gordon should continue to get a large workload and the team has made mention they want to get him more looks in the passing game. Owners in the mid-to-late first round who miss out on the top tier of running backs will be pleasantly surprised to own a back who finishes in the top five at his position. – Pete Lawrence

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ken kelly
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