DLF’s 2018 Predictions: Fantasy Bust of the Year

Ken Kelly Posted On September 5, 2018

Most rookie drafts are in the rearview mirror and the NFL Preseason is now over. We’re all busy combing the news sites trying to keep abreast of all the important developments as we prepare for the best time of the year, the NFL season. That can only mean one thing – it’s time for us to put a bow on those reams of off-season content with DLF’s 2018 Fantasy Predictions. As we do every year, we have several different prediction articles for you in the following categories:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Sleeper Rookie of the Year (outside our top 24)
Bust of the Year
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

We continue the series with “Fantasy Bust of the Year,” a player who will disappoint dynasty owners this season.

Mike Evans, WR TB

This isn’t popular opinion because we somehow treat Evans like fantasy royalty but it’s time to stop drafting him as a WR1 in fantasy. He’s an inefficient, touchdown dependent wide receiver playing on an offense with a bland play caller and an erratic nutcase for a quarterback. His production does not match his ADP and, I’ll go ahead and say it, Chris Godwin is a better all around wide receiver than he is. Come at me, bro! – Eric Olinger

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Brandin Cooks, WR LAR

Much like Sammy Watkins, I’m very wary of a player who is suiting up for his third team in as many years. Cooks makes some very exciting plays each year and received a nice contract this off-season. However, he’s going to be difficult to trust with so many mouths to feed in an offense clearly led by a rushing attack. Cooks is more like a WR2/3 but owners are paying more for him in most drafts. – Ken Kelly

Alvin Kamara, RB NO

This is an unpopular opinion. And it’s not that I think Kamara is a bad player at all. But it’s going to be incredibly difficult for him to reach the value he’d need to in order to not disappoint.

Kamara as a rookie managed a scintillating 13 touchdowns. Since 2000, eight other rookie backs have hit that total and they averaged 316 touches- Kamara had just 202. The average total yardage for a back with 200-210 touches has been 937 yards. Kamara managed 1,554. The next best player was Fred Jackson with 1,376 yards from 209 touches back in 2011.

Kamara is an electric player but unless he can add a large number of touches, it’s just not plausible to me that he can get anywhere close to his rookie season efficiency. He’s being valued as a top six back but he’ll need to add around 120 touches to get into that sort of volume. With Mark Ingram and Drew Brees present, there doesn’t seem much chance the offense starts revolving around Kamara after Ingram returns. – Tom Kislingbury

Davante Adams, WR GBP

Adams is a good receiver. He plays with a future Hall of Fame quarterback who is one of the best in the league. He is now the clear WR1 in the Green Bay offense. Yes, all of these things are true. He’s also being drafted as high as the first pick of the second round in dynasty start ups right now without ever producing more than 75 catches or 1,000 yards receiving in a single season over his four year career. My problem with Adams isn’t the talent of the player or the opportunity. It’s the draft capital (or tradeable assets) you have to spend to have him on your team. Add in the three severe concussions he’s suffered in four years that up his risk of injury and Adams is a prime candidate to disappoint this year and beyond, in my opinion. – Brian Harr

Julio Jones, WR ATL

I’m worried about the Atlanta offense. I don’t like how it changed last year under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I’m worried it will keep getting worse. Rumor has it Sarkisian left in most of Shanahan’s system and this year there will be a full transition to what he wants to do. And while Jones had numbers that looked great at the end of the year, much of his production was tied up in a monster game that happened in week 12. I don’t like depending on that kind of thing as many other weeks he was below average. I’m worried the Atlanta offense continues in a negative direction and Julio fails to save his season with any big weeks. – Ryan Finley

Leonard Fournette, RB JAX

Anyone else see TJ Yeldon catch all those balls with the “ones” and look fantastic doing it? I sure didn’t miss it. Not only is Fournette’s receiving volume a mammoth question mark, he showed signs of his body not being able to withstand a great workload as he was seemingly always dinged last season. There are much better places to look for your RB1. – TJ Calkins

Dalvin Cook, RB MIN

Cook is talented but there are some clear red flags that make him overvalued. While he looks set for Week 1, I still believe the Vikings will be very careful with him for at least the first quarter of the season, if not longer. Even after that, Latavius Murray will not be a complete non-factor. He seemed to earn a place on the field with his solid play and tendency for the end zone. Cook will have a fine season but those expecting RB1 numbers will probably be sorely disappointed. – Zach Wilkens

Alvin Kamara, RB NO

I expect the difference between expectation and actual output to be bigger for a couple of players but factoring in Kamara’s win-now value, he gets the nod for me. It’ll be nearly impossible for him to keep up 2017’s efficiency, given all the yardage and touchdowns he racked up in just 200 targets last season. After tracking his rookie season carries, it became clear that while he’s a great talent (particularly in the passing game), it required an otherworldly performance from his offensive line to push him over six yards per carry. He should be efficient again but (approximately speaking) a drop from six to five yards per carry is a huge deal in aggregate, especially if his touchdowns fall, too. – Stephen Gill

Joe Mixon, RB CIN

Those who follow me know I had a tough time between picking Mixon and Sammy Watkins. Ultimately, I settled on Mixon because I don’t trust the Bengals offense enough for Mixon to live up to his 20th overall Dynasty ADP. Additionally, Marvin Lewis (and his offensive coordinators) have rarely had anyone finish as a fantasy RB1. – Bobby Koch

Carson Wentz, QB, PHI

It’s hard to imagine Wentz being ready for even for week two at this point but if he does make it back early, it’s going to be out of necessity. He tore his ACL on December 10th of last year and the Eagles open the 2018 NFL season on September 6th – that’s less than nine months of recovery and reconditioning time. I can see him starting slow and finishing outside the top ten at the position in 2018. – Matt Price

Stefon Diggs, WR MIN

Diggs is everyone’s favorite breakout star, but he’s a player I find it somewhat difficult to get behind. He’s being drafted as the 22nd overall player and tenth overall wide receiver in dynasty. While I understand he’s young, he ranked as the 13th wide receiver in terms of fantasy point per game (PPR) last season. He also has to compete with Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook for targets. Thielen comes with a much lower price tag, but saw 8.9 targets per game last season while Diggs saw only 6.8 targets per game. Furthermore, Diggs is a small receiver who has never played a full season in the NFL. At this point, you’re drafting him at his absolute ceiling. – Justin Bales

Leonard Fournette, RB JAX

You’ve got to reach for the highest ADP you can when thinking about busts. With that in mind, I choose Leonard Fournette. He finished as the RB9 as a rookie and is being drafted ahead of the rookie who finished as the RB4 in Kareem Hunt? True, he played in three fewer games. However, is the fact a player with a significant injury history got injured really a positive? Fournette would have needed to have averaged 21 points in those three lost games to even equal Hunt after averaging 17 points a game up to that point. Even given health, I have questions. I expect the the defense to struggle more just because it reached such an epic performance last year. The offense also has more questions than answers outside of Fournette. He seems like the biggest risk in the top twelve to me. – Peter Howard

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT

This hurts to say as I am a HUGE fan of JuJu. However, he’s being drafted in the late third round and early fourth round right now – that’s a lot of draft capital to use on the second wide receiver on a team with a new offensive coordinator and a healthy Antonio Brown. I’m all about JuJu in dynasty, but for redraft/2018 that is a steep price to pay. – Pete Lawrence

Who’s your choice for fantasy bust of the year?

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Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK