The Difference Between Dynasty and Seasonal Ranks, Part Three: Quarterbacks
So, you know the drill now, right? Or you just skipped ahead… good point. Okay well, this is a four-part series. I’m looking for values in the difference between seasonal and dynasty values for all four offensive positions in fantasy football.
To do this, I break down each position rank based on DLF’s August ADP and FantasyPros seasonal rankings. I’ll examine each player currently being drafted in dynasty by sorting through FantasyPros ranking tiers.
Our goal is to learn more about how we value players in the long and short-term, while also hunting and highlighting short-term buys and sells.
Depending on the make-up of your team, and style of play, a “buy” and “sell” may be the polar opposite of someone else’s. So just know I’m using a standard definition for both terms.
Short-Term Sell = Players who are ranked higher in dynasty than in FantasyPros ranks
Short-term Buy = Players ranked high in FantasyPros ranks but lower in dynasty
You can no doubt figure the rest out from there.
Be sure to check out part one and two in this series where I broke down running backs and tight ends… no guessing who comes next either, it’s a secret.
You can find all the processed data to explore, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PQ0QWMqu0e-XOeI26Iu0hd9RZBx-tIPiL4Ch0166LCo/edit?usp=sharing
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Overall Positional ADP
We mostly agree on the order quarterbacks should be drafted when shifting our perspective between short and long-term leagues. A correlation of 0.6 (60%) is the second highest value we have seen in these ranks so far. But it’s still 20% lower than running backs.
So let’s see where we change our mind.
Tier Grouping One (Tiers 3-5)
Short-Term Buy: Drew Brees, Tom Brady
Short-Term Sell: Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz
Woah… even drawing that trend line was a little optimistic, to be honest. The line itself probably lends more cohesion to the top-tiered quarterbacks than really exists. When playing dynasty, we really change our minds on who’s more valuable.
Deshaun Watson moves from the fifth player off the board to second in dynasty. Brees is outside the top 12 when we try thinking “long-term”, but inside the top six when only thinking about 2018.
The reasons behind those differences are pretty obvious. People are silly and won’t draft Brees where he should be drafted (:D).
Kirk Cousins also seems to have some value as a short-term buy. He is flirting with the top ten in dynasty but is definitely inside it in seasonal.
Overall, I’d always avoid being too worried about age at this position. The production outside of elite seasons is just so replaceable. More years of replaceable production isn’t that enticing. But, fewer years of elite production is.
Tier Grouping Two (Tiers 6-8)
Short-Term Buy: Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan
Short-Term Sell: Jameis Winston
So, we agree a lot more about the second tier grouping. In general, we see the same upside and downside. The same pattern persists where older, more proven top ten players are discounted in dynasty and a value for anyone interesting in winning.
We are, however, not so lucky with young quarterbacks. We seem awfully optimistic about those second-year players in 2018. As such only Jameis Winston, currently suspended, holds as a clear long-term buy.
Tier Grouping Three (Tiers 9-11)
Short-Term Sell: All of them
Short-Term Buy: Maybe Tyrod Taylor?
We’re back to being at war with ourselves (yay?) by the time we get to the third tier grouping. Dynasty players are definitely willing to make the longer-term bet on rookies, especially Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield, and seasonal players and just not interested in anyone here at all.
No one Likes AJ McCarron.
Dynasty players are officially higher on Josh Allen
Seasonal players are more “interested” in Tyrod Taylor, but still have him ranked outside the top 25.
Conclusion
I think this is the easiest position to understand without having to break down the rankings. Dynasty is overvaluing youth, seasonal leagues proven talent. However, it is interesting that we are somewhat equally tempted by the potential of Patrick Mahomes and Mitchell Trubisky in their sophomore seasons.
The trickiest thing in dynasty about finding value at the quarterback position is trying to get a trade at all. In the end, I think most players are going to lean towards keeping Drew Brees and Philip Rivers once they are on the roster. But for drafts, I definitely think they provide an easy way to hold off on the position and still end up with great productions.
In superflex and 2QB leagues, these values are a lot more important, obviously. If you have a shot to get to the championship, I’d target some older top ten players and trade away Watson, Pat, and Mitch.
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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