The Difference Between Dynasty and Seasonal Ranks, Part One: Running Backs

Peter Howard

The mob is stupid, but powerful. Let’s face it – consensus ranks are, at best, a very frustrating exercise that rarely reflect the way players in your league feel. It’s also the best we’ve got. Compiled ranks like those at FantasyPros are the best way to get a general idea of where the group is on player value and expectation. It’s a starting point for trade offers. One way we can use it is to compare season-long ranks to DLF’s August ADP. This should tell us something about the difference in how the group values player long term and for next year alone.

This should be of some use in dynasty. Personally, I think we should always be trying to win. However, depending on your team situation and personal playing style, what that means can vary. If you’ve inherited a team whose best running back is LeGarrette Blount, you probably have a different idea of what you need in a trade to the player who inherited Alvin Kamara.

So, taking my own preferences out, and using ranks as a rough estimation of what “we” think, I’m going to break down all four offensive skill position groups. I’ll highlight players who are more valued in the long and the short term as well as look into the different way we draft based on the format.

First up is the running back position.

Who could you target in dynasty leagues if you need a producer this year? Who should you target if you’re looking to make a long-term investment? Who is Nick Chubb anyway?

I’ve tried several ways of representing this data. The method I’ve decided on is…graphs. I know, I know, a graph, really? But unclench your teeth and bear with me. As long as you can tell if a thing is higher, lower, left or right, these are easy to read. There is no math involved. I promise.

Plus, it’s easier to take in the whole group, see the context of one player to another and make up your own mind. Which is what we’re after. It’s also much easier to “zoom in” to specific draft ranges.

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The Position as a whole

Here is all of DLF ADP (along the bottom) plotted against all of FantasyPros Season Long Ranks (along the left)

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This is almost too broad to make any conclusion. Except for the fact Nick Chubb is the highest-ranked dynasty running back to peak above the season-long ranks (he’s ranked very low).

It’s also nice to see there is a fair amount of correlation here (0.8 R^2), meaning most of these players are closer to the red trend line than not. There is commonality to season long and dynasty.

But we see a lot more value when we zoom in using FantasyPros ranking tiers.

Tier Grouping 1 (Tiers 1 to 3)

If we sort by the first three tiers at FantasyPros (pick 1 to 38 in a draft), we get a closer look at how the top 15 running backs differ in both types of leagues. The value difference here is a lot tighter, with the closest correlation to season long (season long and dynasty players agree on the top running backs more than any other tier). But that also means a smaller difference in positional ranks is needed to find a value.

Since running back is a more short-term position in general, we should expect to see some conflicts with what actually makes sense for dynasty. Running backs hit earlier in their career and they don’t have as many fantasy relevant seasons (on average) as other positions.

However, players who are more valued in a dynasty league could be buys or sells depending on your situation. If you have a good running back core and need wide receivers, those valued more highly in dynasty could be sells for you to improve elsewhere. If you need to improve your top-flight running back at value, those who are more valued in season-long leagues may be at a lower cost compared to their expected production in 2018.

Let’s put this into practice.

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Short-Term Buy: Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Jerick McKinnon

Short-Term Sell: Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon

If you are thinking long term, the opposite would be true.

  • Bell is ranked four spots higher in seasonal leagues ranks then dynasty ADP.
  • Gordon has a three spot positional difference.
  • Barkley and Fournette are ranked three spots higher at the position in dynasty than seasonal-long
  • Mixon is two spots higher in dynasty ADP

I’m not going to say I agree with the “takes” here. But if nothing else it should help to explain the methodology.

This group has the highest correlation to each other with an R^2 value of 0.77. In other words, we agree more on how to rank the top 15 running backs than any other group.

On a side note, personally, I don’t think Fournette should be more highly valued in dynasty. So I’d fade that idea. (Are these people crazy? A touch-dependent running back in the long view? Anyway…)

Tier Grouping 2 (Tiers 4 to 6)

In this way, the second tier grouping shows the reason for some difference in season-long and dynasty. Taking a bet on Kenyan Drake in season-long has fewer consequences than in dynasty. So the upside is worth it for many.

As such, we see the lowest correlation in tier groupings between dynasty and season-long (we disagree about the value of more about this group of running backs than any other.) However, based on what we think the upside is for 2018, those circled in red are players who are valued less in dynasty who consensus hopes could be more valuable in the short term.

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Short-Term Buy: LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch

Short-Term Sells: Every rookie running back not named Saquon Barkley and Tevin Coleman

McCoy has a lot of short-term risk given his situation and potential injury and suspension concerns. But he’s dropped in dynasty ranks to reflect some of that as well.

While “missing out” on a rookie running back is a painful concept for us, in the short term any value increase should by and large be capitalized on for the benefit of more established players. I’d recommend Devonta Freeman. Season-long ranks recommend Bell, Gordon, Jerick McKinnon and now McCoy and Lynch.

Tier Grouping 3 (Tiers 7 to 9)

We agree more on flyers than mid-round running backs. Tier grouping 3 has an R^2 value of 0.47. So we agree more than twice as much about the best later round backs than middle round grinders. This also makes sense, because when you’re taking a player after pick 115, long and short-term interest can seem a lot less worrying. The consequences of “missing’ on a player are less, while the value of “hitting” on one is greater.

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Short-Term Buys: Frank Gore, Samaje Perine, LeGarrette Blount

Short-Term Sells: Nick Chubb, Kalen Ballage, D’Onta Foreman

The fact a talent like Chubb is even in the third their grouping tells you all you need to know about short-term expectation. The Browns are scary. Duke Johnson was a starting running back last year. Carlos Hyde has been a starting running back before. The roles and future are unclear. But in dynasty, we still know a profile like Chubb’s along with second-round draft capital is often a winning combination. So dynasty league players are more willing to take that risk earlier.

Chubb is the strongest buy candidate for a team looking at the long-term view. Samaje Perine is the strongest sell (because dynasty folk expect Derrius Guice back, obviously, and season-long folk don’t have to care about that.)

Also, note that dynasty leagues love T.J. Yeldon (nine spot positional ranks difference) compared to season-long rank. D’Onta Foreman (with a ten spot difference) gets more “press” as a “sleeper” in my opinion. This could make Yeldon an interesting trade target. This also speaks to the dynasty love of Leonard Fournette.

In conclusion

You can see all these results, in table form, including the positional rank differences here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PQ0QWMqu0e-XOeI26Iu0hd9RZBx-tIPiL4Ch0166LCo/edit?usp=sharing

While it might seem like a short-term perspective naturally leads you to older players who are more proven, and it often does, there is more subtlety here than I expected. I find it interesting how we disagree with ourselves when considering the 2018 season as well.

I think there is more to be pulled out of this data, but a lot of it is going to depend on how we as individuals feel about players. So, get stuck in and find the players who make the best sense for your team, based on who you think is #good.

Thanks for checking it out, I’ll be back soon to look at the tight end position.

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peter howard
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