2018 IDP Projections: New Orleans Saints
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2017 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
It was heartbreak for the Saints in 2017 as they lost in the playoffs in dramatic fashion to the Vikings. As usual under Sean Payton, the team were dynamic on offense but unusually it really all came together on the other side of the ball too. In reality, there was a bit of hype there and a small number of impact players managed to paper over the cracks elsewhere. The team has added some seemingly positive pieces though and for the first time in a long time, the Saints have reason to hope for a top defense in the coming season.
Defensive tackle
Sheldon Rankins disappointed a lot of owners last season with his paltry statistics. He managed just two sacks and 16 solos tackles. However, as is common, his pressure total was better than his sacks. He managed 30 total pressures (two more than Vic Beasley) which was the same as David Irving. He’s proved in two years he’s not a high-tackle player but adding another sack or two should be very possible and he’s only entering his age-23 season.
Aside from Rankins, it’s hard to see any relevant players emerging from this team given the strengths elsewhere.
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Defensive end
Cameron Jordan is one of the very best edge players in the league but still isn’t really getting credit for it even after an incendiary 2017. He’s as close to plug-and-play as most ends in the league and should be valued highly.
Opposite Jordan has been a problem over the past few seasons but Alex Okafor flashed in 2017 and the team invested heavily into Marcus Davenport. The amount they gave up for Davenport seems to indicate he’ll play early and often. For a rookie, broaching 500 snaps is impressive and that sort of volume would be very encouraging even if he’s not an immediate star.
Inside linebacker
Demario Davis was brought in from the Jets on a big contract after managing a huge 2017 which was in many ways anomalous. He led the league in LB snaps and played far better in pure NFL terms than he ever has before. Keeping it up might be a tall order (especially in an inefficient scheme for LBs) but Davis should still be the player to own here.
Opposite Davis is likely to be a muddle. Alex Anzalone started as a rookie before his inevitable injury. He managed just 33 solos tackles in his entire college career due to injuries but his 11 as a pro still seems good for him. He’s a good player but he just can’t stay healthy.
A.J. Klein was astonishingly inefficient in 2017 which was massively disappointing given the contract he signed. He’ll get on the field but don’t expect a big impact.
And with those two problems, we’re left with Craig Robertson. He’s not exciting in any way but he could easily end up being the last man standing.
Cornerback
Marshon Lattimore was an instant hit as a rookie especially in the second half of the season. If he follows any sort of normal curve, he’ll be fantastic in 2018. That should mean a dip in his production. His ability to make plays on the ball will help but he’s unlikely to be a great IDP.
Ken Crawley, however, should reap the rewards. He’s a decent player but a far more attractive target than Lattimore which will translate into production.
Patrick Robinson came over from Philly and should be immediately installed as the slot defensive back – which is sad given how intriguing a prospect Natrell Jamerson is. Jamerson might contribute on special teams or end up playing safety but he’d be great fun in the slot.
Safety
As mentioned above, the Saints crashed out of the playoffs on one play and famously it was Marcus Williams’ fault. He went up for a routine ball and just totally misjudged it – a huge shame given his otherwise extremely promising rookie season. It’s worth noting, however, that he’s a deep safety. That play has granted him notoriety, but he is not an attractive IDP.
Vonn Bell is far closer to a strong safety archetype. Lots of people thought Kenny Vaccaro played that role in 2017 but in reality, he was mostly lined up in the slot. There’s a big opportunity for a dominant safety on a team with question marks at the linebacker position.
Kurt Coleman was brought in on a pretty big contract but it’s tough to see where he fits in. That’s a key situation to monitor in camp and preseason. Bell should be on the field but Coleman is a worry.
Stud
Cam Jordan is a monster in many ways. He’s productive, reliable and consistent as a pass rusher and also has the ability to record tackles. He’s a top IDP.
Disappointment
Demario Davis. Many IDP owners will simply expect Davis to produce close to the 97 solos he managed in 2017. It’s extremely unlikely he plays over 1,100 snaps again and he’s almost certain to drop in effectiveness.
Dark horse
Vonn Bell. He’s been very underrated all through the off-season but should have the inside track to the most productive role in this secondary behind a fairly weak linebacker corps.
Summary
There are still weak spots on this defense but they seem to be less glaring than in 2017. If either Klein, Anzalone or Robertson can come up with a good season at linebacker and Marcus Davenport gets off his blocks fast then there’s potential to be a top ten defense here.
Thanks for reading.
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