Instant Analysis: Derrius Guice Suffers Torn ACL

Every year there seems to be a slew of season-ending injuries that happen before the season even truly gets started. Unfortunately, this year is no different. First, we saw Hunter Henry lost for the season, and now Derrius Guice is as well. We here at Dynasty League Football all wish him a speedy recovery. However, it is our job to provide you, the readers, with the impact this has on dynasty values.

Derrius Guice, RB WAS

Guice was one of the crown jewels of the incoming rookie draft despite “slipping” in the real NFL draft. Few of the rookie running backs landed in better spots than Guice did, and this was reflected by his most recent rookie ADP of 1.2. Additionally, DLF staffers were high on Guice’s prospects as evidenced by his RB14 average ranking.

With his ACL torn, it’ll be another year before we get to see what second-round pick out of LSU can do. The good news is that an ACL injury is generally no longer career-ending, but most running backs take a bit of time to return to form. Hopefully, Guice will be fully recovered by the time week one hits next year. His price is sure to drop, so if you have an IR spot on your team or can afford to stash him, now would be a good time to strike up a trade conversation with his owner.

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Chris Thompson, RB WAS

There was some concern that Guice would come in and immediately work as a three-down back, leaving Chris Thompson without a role. That’s no longer the case. Before anyone goes crazy over acquiring Thompson, just remember he has only played 16 games once in his career. That said, he’s been incredibly reliable when on the field. In fact, over the last three seasons, Thompson has the tenth most receiving yards of running back. Thompson’s ADP started to take a hit after breaking his fibula to end last season combined with the Redskins drafting Guice, but you can expect it to rise again a bit with this latest news.

Samaje Perine, RB WAS

If anyone benefits the most from this sad news, it’s probably Perine. He may have been on the roster bubble, and now he seems likely to make the team. Much of the fantasy community had high hopes for Perine last year as evidenced by his post-NFL draft hitting a high of 71 overall. Things didn’t quite work as planned. According to FFstatistics,  Perine provided fantasy owners last season with more weekly finishes below the RB2 mark than he did above the RB2 mark combined.

The one positive from Perine’s rookie season is that he caught a ridiculous 91.7% of the 24 targets thrown his way. It may be a small sample, but especially with Thompson also recovering from an injury, I would bet on the Redskins working Perine into their rotation over Robert Kelley because of his pass-catching chops. His ADP is sure to go up after this news, but as of the last update you could have had him for the price of an 18th round pick in a startup. If he isn’t on your waiver wire, I’d offer a 2019 third round pick for him and see where that gets you. Don’t go too crazy trying to acquire him though.

Rob Kelley, RB WAS

It seems far less likely that Rob Kelley ends up being the back to own for this season. He had his chance to wow the Redskins and fantasy owners back in 2016, and while his rush totals weren’t bad, he showed zero effectiveness in the passing game. In any sort of PPR format, I wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to pick up Kelley. If he is on your waiver wire, feel free to take the shot just in case, but otherwise I wouldn’t offer any sort of draft capital in a trade for him.

Kapri Bibbs, RB WAS

It was a very limited sample but in three games last year, he did put up a 14-128-1 receiving line. He would likely need a Thompson injury to become relevant but given that Thompson is still dealing with some lingering issues from his broken fibula, it’s not that much of a stretch to think he’ll get involved. He makes for an interesting waiver claim in deeper leagues.

DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, and Alfred Morris RB, FA

All three of these backs I’ve listed were once productive. Murray would be the most exciting since he has the most recent success, but the Redskins would need to coax him out of retirement. It isn’t anything we haven’t seen him before, but there is a chance he’s done for good. Neither Peterson or Morris looked particularly great last season, and both are effectively zeros in the passing game at this stage of their careers. Murray is the only one of these aging free agent backs I’d take a shot on.

Alex Smith, QB WAS

Last season, the Redskins featured Kirk Cousins as their signal caller. They’ve since transitioned to Smith via trade after the very nice season he put up with the Kansas City Chiefs. I don’t think anyone was expecting Smith to repeat his top-five fantasy quarterback season from last year, but I really liked the move for him. Losing Guice is a bit tough because he could have taken some defensive attention off the playmakers, but conversely, due to lack of options, it could mean the team continues to pass more than it runs the ball. Smith makes a nice grab as a solid QB2 for those of you in Superflex leagues.

Jamison Crowder, WR WAS

Many fantasy analysts are expecting a Jamison Crowder breakout this season. The routes he runs match up very well with Smith’s strength as a quarterback and more pass attempts can only mean good things for him. Crowder’s ADP had already started to rise as anticipation builds about the potential Smith-Crowder bromance, and this news should only serve to bump it up further. If his price does rise, he’s getting to a place where if I’m an owner I may look to cash out on the hype because his price likely won’t match his production at that point.

Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson, WR WAS

Reports out of camp are that Richardson is doing very well in the Redskins’ offense. He did start to show some signs of a breakout in his final year with the Seahawks, and it’s not hard to imagine that he will get more opportunities because of Washington’s need to pass more. The concern for Richardson and Doctson is they profile as deep threats and the deep ball is not typically a strength of Smith’s. Smith did have a good year with the deep ball last year, but historically he has struggled with it. Richardson has started to see his ADP climb after a rather large drop in February of 2018, and it should get another uptick. I imagine Doctson will see his ADP go up slightly too but don’t be surprised to see Docton’s ADP fall hard if he fails to put up results this year.

Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, TE WAS

By now, you know that Reed has trouble staying healthy. He is a special talent when he can, but you really must be worried about him with a laundry list of injuries in his past. Davis would stand to benefit if Reed does have trouble staying healthy again, because like Crowder before them, both tight ends operate in parts of the field where Smith’s strength lay. I’d expect both ADP’s to rise slightly, but not all that much.

Essentially, if a player is a part of the Redskins’ passing game I expect them to see an uptick because of Guice’s injury. There aren’t many pieces I’d advocate buying if their prices rise, but I am intrigued by Thompson and Perine in particular. I’d again like to wish Guice a speedy recovery, and I know we all can’t wait to see him be “Dha Sickest” on the field.

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